Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0659z, 23/12/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A deep low lies to the north of Shetland, leading to westerlies and NW'lies
over the UK. The low moves away to the NE at T+144, allowing a weak ridge to
move over the UK. Westerlies cover Northern Ireland, while the rest of the
UK lies under NW'lies or WNW'lies. By T+168 westerlies and southerlies
affect the UK, as a trough from a low over Scotland crosses England.

ECMWF ensembles:
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/20..._06260_NWT.gif
The ensembles show the ECM run was around average temperature wise out to
T+168.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows a deep low west of southern Norway and a trough
over England. To the SE of the trough, winds are WSW'lies, with NNW'lies or
northerlies for the rest of the UK. A weak ridge moves over England and
Wales at T+144, resulting in westerlies, NW'lies and northerlies over the
UK.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Westerlies and NW'lies cover the UK, due to a low to the ENE of Scotland.
The low moves slowly ENE'wards, while a trough sinks southwards over
Scotland. To the south, winds are westerlies, with NNE'lies for northern
Scotland. 850hPa temperatures range from -6C over NW Scotland to -3C over
southern England. The winds become NNW'lies for many at T+144 as a ridge
moves eastwards across the British Isles, followed by SW'lies for all at
T+168 as the ridge continues moving eastwards. The SW'lies continue for day
8, then a trough moves eastwards resulting in NW'lies for all on day 9. A
ridge builds to the west on day 10, bringing northerlies for all.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows low pressure over southern Scandinavia, with a trough
over England. Northerlies are the result for most, with 850hPa temperatures
ranging from -7C over northern Scotland to -1C over SE England. A weak ridge
crosses the UK at T+144, leading to SSW'lies for Northern Ireland and
NW'lies elsewhere.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Westerlies cover the UK, due to lowss to the NE and NW of the UK. A
secondary low is located to the south of the UK, while 850hPa temperatures
vary from -5C over northern Scotland to +1C over Kent. Westerlies continue
to affect the UK at T+144 and T+168, before a weak ridge brings SW'lies,
westerlies and NNW'lies over the UK on day 8.

In summary, the runs today show a cooler interlude for the UK at the end of
the weekend, with low pressure over Scandinavia and a ridge close to or over
the UK. Beyond that, the Canadian run shows zonal weather, while the GFS
shows another cold plunge the following weekend. As ever, more runs are
needed.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
As ever, more runs are
needed.

Darren,

Maybe, if you're very good then this Christmas you'll get "the runs".

;-)

Have a wonderful Christmas Darren and thanks for a year of hard work and
superb interpretations.

Regards

A