Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0645z,
Christmas Day 2003.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A low lies to the north of Northern Irel;and, leading to ESE'lies for
Scotland and WNW'lies over much of the rest of the UK. SE England lies under
stronger SW'lies, though. A weak ridge crosses the UK at T+144, before
SW'lies associated with deep lows to the NW cover the UK at T+168.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows northerlies over the UK, due to a weak ridge over
Ireland and a low over Germany. By T+144 the winds become SW'lies, as the
ridge builds and moves SE'wards.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
A ridge covers Ireland and extends northwards, leading to northerlies across
the UK. The ridge toppled over England at T+120, allowing southerlies to
affect Ireland, Wales and SW England. 850hPa temperatures range from -9C
over much of Scotland to freezing over SW England. SW'ly and southerly gales
cover the UK at T+144, as low pressure deepens explosively to the WNW of
Scotland. The low fills slightly and drifts ESE'wards at T+168, with strong
to gale force westerlies and SW'lies for the UK. By day 8 the low fills over
the southern North Sea, with northerlies over the UK. After lying under a
col on day 9, the winds become southerlies and SE'lies on day 10, with a new
loe over the Irish Sea.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows an area of low pressure over the southern North Sea,
with a mixture of northerlies, NE'lies and NW'lies over the UK. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -7C over NW Scotland to +1C over Kent. The winds
become NW'lies and WNW'lies at T+144, with a ridge to the west.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
SW'lies and southerlies cover the UK, due to a deep low west of Scotland.
850hPa temperatures vary from -7C over northern Scotland to +3C over SW
England. A SSW'ly flow covers the UK at T+144 as the low fills in situ. By
T+168 the low deepens again to the west of Scotland, with SSW'lies and
southerlies continuing to affect the UK. There's little change on day 8 as
the low persists to the west of Scotland.

In summary, the runs today are mixed again. Some show a cool start to the
week (GFS), while others restrict any cold air to Scotland (JMA, GEM).
Beyond that, things become even less certain, with outcomes ranging from
northerly blasts (GEM) to zonality (MetO). As ever, more runs are needed.

As a final point, I'd like to wish everyone reading this a peaceful
Christmas; thanks for your support over the years!

Thanks Darren for your continued work at such early hours. I only needed to
open up the NG and there you were. Happy Christmas,Darren, and all the best
for the New Year.

Cheers, Keith

Darren Prescott schrieb:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0645z,
Christmas Day 2003.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A low lies to the north of Northern Irel;and, leading to ESE'lies for
Scotland and WNW'lies over much of the rest of the UK. SE England lies under
stronger SW'lies, though. A weak ridge crosses the UK at T+144, before
SW'lies associated with deep lows to the NW cover the UK at T+168.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows northerlies over the UK, due to a weak ridge over
Ireland and a low over Germany. By T+144 the winds become SW'lies, as the
ridge builds and moves SE'wards.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
A ridge covers Ireland and extends northwards, leading to northerlies across
the UK. The ridge toppled over England at T+120, allowing southerlies to
affect Ireland, Wales and SW England. 850hPa temperatures range from -9C
over much of Scotland to freezing over SW England. SW'ly and southerly gales
cover the UK at T+144, as low pressure deepens explosively to the WNW of
Scotland. The low fills slightly and drifts ESE'wards at T+168, with strong
to gale force westerlies and SW'lies for the UK. By day 8 the low fills over
the southern North Sea, with northerlies over the UK. After lying under a
col on day 9, the winds become southerlies and SE'lies on day 10, with a new
loe over the Irish Sea.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows an area of low pressure over the southern North Sea,
with a mixture of northerlies, NE'lies and NW'lies over the UK. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -7C over NW Scotland to +1C over Kent. The winds
become NW'lies and WNW'lies at T+144, with a ridge to the west.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
SW'lies and southerlies cover the UK, due to a deep low west of Scotland.
850hPa temperatures vary from -7C over northern Scotland to +3C over SW
England. A SSW'ly flow covers the UK at T+144 as the low fills in situ. By
T+168 the low deepens again to the west of Scotland, with SSW'lies and
southerlies continuing to affect the UK. There's little change on day 8 as
the low persists to the west of Scotland.

In summary, the runs today are mixed again. Some show a cool start to the
week (GFS), while others restrict any cold air to Scotland (JMA, GEM).
Beyond that, things become even less certain, with outcomes ranging from
northerly blasts (GEM) to zonality (MetO). As ever, more runs are needed.

As a final point, I'd like to wish everyone reading this a peaceful
Christmas; thanks for your support over the years!

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Darren Prescott :
As a final point, I'd like to wish everyone reading this a peaceful
Christmas; thanks for your support over the years!

And to you to. You were allowed a day off you know! Your summaries
over the past year have been greatly appreciated.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk