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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0638z, 30/12/03. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif SW'lies and westerlies cover the UK, with a ridge to the SE and a trough over the Celtic Sea. The SW'lies continue at T+144, but by T+168 the winds become lighter westerlies as a trough crosses the UK. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html A ridge from a high to the east covers England and Wales, leading to southerlies for all areas except Scotland, which lies under SW'lies. The ridge sinks southwards at T+144, allowing SW'lies to cover the UK. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif Low pressure coves the Northern Isles, bringing SE'lies to much of England and NW'lies elsewhere. The low sinks SE'wards at T+120, with NNW'lies for all. 850hPa temperatures range from -6C over northern Scotland to +4C over SW England. Westerlies affect the UK at T+144 as a weak ridge moves eastwards, followed by cyclonic winds at T+168 as a low crosses England. SSW'lies and westerlies cover the UK ahead of another low on day 8 and the winds become WSW'lies on day 9 as the low remains in situ. By day 10 the low lies to the north of Scotland, with strong WSW'lies for all. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif The Canadian run shows a westerly or WNW'ly flow over the UK, due to high pressure over France and Germany. 850hPa temperatures vary from -2C over East Anglia to +2C over Northern Ireland. A weak ridge moves across the UK at T+144, with westerlies and SW'lies. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html NW'lies cover the UK, with low pressure over the North Sea. 850hPa temperatures vary from -3C over northern Scotland to +1C over Cornwall. A ridge moves swiftly eastwards over the UK at T+144, leading to westerlies and SW'lies. Westerlies associated with an Icelandic low cover the UK at T+168, followed by SW'lies on day 8 as a low deepens to the west of Scotland. In summary, the models show that after a brief settled interlude, wet and windy weather will return for all for the start of next week. |
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