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Old December 30th 03, 06:39 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (30/12/03)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0638z, 30/12/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
SW'lies and westerlies cover the UK, with a ridge to the SE and a trough
over the Celtic Sea. The SW'lies continue at T+144, but by T+168 the winds
become lighter westerlies as a trough crosses the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
A ridge from a high to the east covers England and Wales, leading to
southerlies for all areas except Scotland, which lies under SW'lies. The
ridge sinks southwards at T+144, allowing SW'lies to cover the UK.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Low pressure coves the Northern Isles, bringing SE'lies to much of England
and NW'lies elsewhere. The low sinks SE'wards at T+120, with NNW'lies for
all. 850hPa temperatures range from -6C over northern Scotland to +4C over
SW England. Westerlies affect the UK at T+144 as a weak ridge moves
eastwards, followed by cyclonic winds at T+168 as a low crosses England.
SSW'lies and westerlies cover the UK ahead of another low on day 8 and the
winds become WSW'lies on day 9 as the low remains in situ. By day 10 the low
lies to the north of Scotland, with strong WSW'lies for all.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows a westerly or WNW'ly flow over the UK, due to high
pressure over France and Germany. 850hPa temperatures vary from -2C over
East Anglia to +2C over Northern Ireland. A weak ridge moves across the UK
at T+144, with westerlies and SW'lies.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
NW'lies cover the UK, with low pressure over the North Sea. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -3C over northern Scotland to +1C over Cornwall. A
ridge moves swiftly eastwards over the UK at T+144, leading to westerlies
and SW'lies. Westerlies associated with an Icelandic low cover the UK at
T+168, followed by SW'lies on day 8 as a low deepens to the west of
Scotland.

In summary, the models show that after a brief settled interlude, wet and
windy weather will return for all for the start of next week.



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