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Old December 31st 03, 06:49 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (New Year's Eve, 2003)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Sunday. Issued 0649z,
New Year's Eve.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
SW'lies cover the UK, with high pressure stretching from east of the Azores
to southern Germany. A trough brings westerlies to Ireland and Scotland at
T+144, followed by WSW'lies and westerlies as a low deepens to the SW of
Iceland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
High pressure covers Iberia and France, resulting in westerlies over the UK.
The winds become SW'lies at T+144 as a low deepens to the west of Scotland.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
WSW'lies and SW'lies cover the UK, due to a deep low west of Iceland. The
winds become NW'lies and westerlies at T+120 as a trough deepens over the
North Sea, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from -3C over Scotland to +5C
over SE England. A secondary low lies to the SW of Ireland at T+144, with
westerlies for most, followed by northerlies and NW'lies at T+168 as the low
deepens over the Netherlands. The UK lies under SW'lies on day 8, from a
deep low SW of Iceland. The SW'lies become stronger on day 9 as the low
deepens and moves NE'wards, followed by westerlies on day 10 as the low
fills to the west of Norway.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows westerlies over the UK, with high pressure over
France. 850hPa temperatures vary from -1C over Northern Ireland to +3C over
England. The winds become WSW'lies for all at T+144, as the resutl of lows
to the north and NW.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Low pressure lies to the NW of the UK, leading to westerlies for all. 850hPa
temperatures range from -1C over NW Scotland to +5C over East Anglia and
Cornwall. The westerlies continue at T+144 and T+168; even by day 8 much of
the UK still lies under westerlies, with SW'lies for Scotland.

In summary, the models show an unsettled and mobile spell of weather
approaching, although as ever in these situations the further NW you are the
less settled it is likely to be.



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