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Old January 1st 04, 06:48 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (New Year's Day, 2004)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0648z,
New Year's Day 2004.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Westerlies cover the UK, with high pressure over Iberia and SW France. The
winds become WNW'lies and NW'lies at T+144 as a weak ridge moves towards the
UK, followed by SW'lies and southerlies at T+168 from a deep low to the SW
of Iceland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Unavailable at time of issue.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
The UK lies under westerlies, partly due to a weak ridge over England and
Wales. The ridge moves eastwards at T+120, with westerlies and southerlies
over the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from -4C over northern Scotland to
+5C over southern Wales. By T+144 a deep low lies to the west of Scotland,
bringing SW'lies across the UK. The winds become WNW'lies and westerlies at
T+168, as a weak ridge ahead of the next low moves over the UK. Strong to
gale force WSW'lies associated with a deep low north of Scotland affect the
UK on day 8, with NW'lies and NNW'lies on day 9 as the low moves eastwards.
Another brief ridge moves swiftly over the UK on day 10, leading to SW'lies
and westerlies.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows SW'lies and SSW'lies over the UK with low pressure to
the west of Scotland. 850hPa temperatures vary from -3C over NE Scotland to
+4C over SW England. By T+144 westerlies cover most of the UK, as the low
fills over northern Scotland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Low pressure covers Ireland, bringing SW'lies to England and Wales, with
southerlies for parts of Scotland. 850hPa temperatures range from -4C over
NW Scotland to +4C over East Anglia and Kent. Westerlies affect the UK at
T+144 as the low deepens and moves NE'wards. A transitory ridge lies atop
the UK at T+168, bringing NW'lies for England and Wales, with westerlies
elsewhere. The winds become gale force westerlies and WSW'lies on day 8,
with a deep low south of Iceland.

In summary, the models continue to show a mobile, unsettled outlook for the
UK, with lows to the north bringing SW'lies or WSW'lies interspersed with
brief ridges.

Finally, I wish everyone who reads this a peaceful and prosperous New Year.



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