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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0648z,
New Year's Day 2004. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif Westerlies cover the UK, with high pressure over Iberia and SW France. The winds become WNW'lies and NW'lies at T+144 as a weak ridge moves towards the UK, followed by SW'lies and southerlies at T+168 from a deep low to the SW of Iceland. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Unavailable at time of issue. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif The UK lies under westerlies, partly due to a weak ridge over England and Wales. The ridge moves eastwards at T+120, with westerlies and southerlies over the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from -4C over northern Scotland to +5C over southern Wales. By T+144 a deep low lies to the west of Scotland, bringing SW'lies across the UK. The winds become WNW'lies and westerlies at T+168, as a weak ridge ahead of the next low moves over the UK. Strong to gale force WSW'lies associated with a deep low north of Scotland affect the UK on day 8, with NW'lies and NNW'lies on day 9 as the low moves eastwards. Another brief ridge moves swiftly over the UK on day 10, leading to SW'lies and westerlies. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif The Canadian run shows SW'lies and SSW'lies over the UK with low pressure to the west of Scotland. 850hPa temperatures vary from -3C over NE Scotland to +4C over SW England. By T+144 westerlies cover most of the UK, as the low fills over northern Scotland. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html Low pressure covers Ireland, bringing SW'lies to England and Wales, with southerlies for parts of Scotland. 850hPa temperatures range from -4C over NW Scotland to +4C over East Anglia and Kent. Westerlies affect the UK at T+144 as the low deepens and moves NE'wards. A transitory ridge lies atop the UK at T+168, bringing NW'lies for England and Wales, with westerlies elsewhere. The winds become gale force westerlies and WSW'lies on day 8, with a deep low south of Iceland. In summary, the models continue to show a mobile, unsettled outlook for the UK, with lows to the north bringing SW'lies or WSW'lies interspersed with brief ridges. Finally, I wish everyone who reads this a peaceful and prosperous New Year. |
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