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#1
January 2nd 04, 11:31 PM
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Not the long-range forecast for January 2004
Using analogue selection for 30-day periods and pattern
sequences for 5-day periods during Nov/Dec, then using best-fit years, gives us the following for January 2004: Mean sea-level pressure pattern over the British Isles: Weakly southwest to westerly Mean pressure anomaly pattern over the Br.Is: weakly northerly/anticyclonic CET -0.7 degC E&W RR 92% E&W sss 104% Verification for December's Not the Long Range Forecast Sea-level pressure pattern: Actual: weakly W-ly Forecast: SSW-ly Anomaly pattern: Actual: N to NE in the north and west, SE-ly in the southeast Forecast: SSE-ly CET: Forecast +1.5 degC Actual -0.3 degC Rainfall: Forecast 100% Actual 102% Sunshine Forecast 89% Actual 116% Philip Eden |
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