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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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There has been a sudden buzz of interest over a forthcoming cold snap
starting around the 15th January. I have spent the last couple of hours studying the latest GFS, ECMWF, UK MET, NO GAPs runs. I have also had a quick look at the pending cold snap over the United States with a little help of the ETA and RSM Ensembles. Consideration of the jet stream and SST's has been included. The majority of models are starting to jump in line with the GFS output. Recently the GFS has been very out-of-touch with other models however, over the past week I believe it's starting to stabilise a little. If this severe cold snap does occur, the heaviest of any snowfall will be confined to the Eastern side of England, East Anglia and South-East England (as normal in these situations). Cold weather continues up to the end of the latest runs with steady stream of North-Easterly winds occasionally veering Easterly. There are three other points that draw my conclusion of a severe cold snap from mid-January: .. Artic Oscillation diving off the scale .. NAO turning increasing negative .. PNA turning positive So all in all, a strong possibility of a severe cold snap for the Eastern half of England in the coming weeks. -- Tom Danbury, Essex (107m) Read my WeatherBlog: http://www.weatherblog.co.uk |
#2
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I can't see any evidence whatever for an easterly spell, even up to
T+384, in the GFS forecasts. Nor is there anything in the ECMWF output. It all seems like wishful thinking to me. Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. |
#3
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On 06 Jan 2004 03:13:43 GMT, (TudorHgh) wrote:
I can't see any evidence whatever for an easterly spell, even up to T+384, in the GFS forecasts. Nor is there anything in the ECMWF output. It all seems like wishful thinking to me. Well the ensemble mean 850 hPa temperature for London in the latest GFS runs at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.html gets down to -5C by the 20th so nothing too unusual there (or at Aberdeen for that matter) But I do like the steady downward slope and the clusters below the mean are tighter than those above (two hitting -12) so there's perhaps a bit more hope of something "interesting" than usual, at least for a run or two. Either way, no snow for me no doubt. I'm already wondering if I'll even get down to -2 minimum this winter. -- Dave Fareham |
#4
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"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
Well the ensemble mean 850 hPa temperature for London in the latest GFS runs at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.html gets down to -5C by the 20th so nothing too unusual there (or at Aberdeen for that matter) http://hometown.aol.co.uk/weatherlaw...ewsletter.html 07 January 15:43. Low pressure with high winds. 15 January 04:45. Fine with high winds. 21 January 21:08. Unsettled, humid and breezy. The times of the first two phases this year will be around quarter to the hour. This is an awkward time for me to forecast one of the things I wrote about asking for help in an earlier post. "Fine weather" in this country in winter means cold weather. Although the sun tends to shine all day during these spells and temperatures are subsequently quite low. Lack of cloud at night is alledged to not help too. -- Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG |
#5
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![]() "Tom" wrote in message ... There has been a sudden buzz of interest over a forthcoming cold snap starting around the 15th January. I have spent the last couple of hours studying the latest GFS, ECMWF, UK MET, NO GAPs runs. I have also had a quick look at the pending cold snap over the United States with a little help of the ETA and RSM Ensembles. Consideration of the jet stream and SST's has been included. The majority of models are starting to jump in line with the GFS output. Recently the GFS has been very out-of-touch with other models however, over the past week I believe it's starting to stabilise a little. If this severe cold snap does occur, the heaviest of any snowfall will be confined to the Eastern side of England, East Anglia and South-East England (as normal in these situations). Cold weather continues up to the end of the latest runs with steady stream of North-Easterly winds occasionally veering Easterly. There are three other points that draw my conclusion of a severe cold snap from mid-January: . Artic Oscillation diving off the scale . NAO turning increasing negative . PNA turning positive So all in all, a strong possibility of a severe cold snap for the Eastern half of England in the coming weeks. I can guarantee it will happen based on the single fact that I am going out of the country on the 14th for a week. |
#6
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I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the
UK... for the time being anyway. First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January and February to halt. Can't see that happening for a few years yet, maybe never considering GW. "Tom" wrote in message ... There has been a sudden buzz of interest over a forthcoming cold snap starting around the 15th January. I have spent the last couple of hours studying the latest GFS, ECMWF, UK MET, NO GAPs runs. I have also had a quick look at the pending cold snap over the United States with a little help of the ETA and RSM Ensembles. Consideration of the jet stream and SST's has been included. The majority of models are starting to jump in line with the GFS output. Recently the GFS has been very out-of-touch with other models however, over the past week I believe it's starting to stabilise a little. If this severe cold snap does occur, the heaviest of any snowfall will be confined to the Eastern side of England, East Anglia and South-East England (as normal in these situations). Cold weather continues up to the end of the latest runs with steady stream of North-Easterly winds occasionally veering Easterly. There are three other points that draw my conclusion of a severe cold snap from mid-January: . Artic Oscillation diving off the scale . NAO turning increasing negative . PNA turning positive So all in all, a strong possibility of a severe cold snap for the Eastern half of England in the coming weeks. -- Tom Danbury, Essex (107m) Read my WeatherBlog: http://www.weatherblog.co.uk |
#7
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![]() I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the UK... for the time being anyway. First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January and February to halt. Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current weather patterns. |
#8
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![]() "danny" wrote in message ... | | | I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the | UK... for the time being anyway. | First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January | and February to halt. | | Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current | weather patterns. | Hi Danny, I'm sorry, lost again in your scientific wizardry. Could you just explain how this "rapid rise in temperatures during Jan and Feb of course ties in with a turn around un current weather patterns" ? Current weather patterns being zonality, the climatological normal ? Joe |
#9
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![]() "Joe Hunt" wrote in message ... "danny" wrote in message ... | | | I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the | UK... for the time being anyway. | First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January | and February to halt. | | Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current | weather patterns. | I'm sorry, lost again in your scientific wizardry. Could you just explain how this "rapid rise in temperatures during Jan and Feb of course ties in with a turn around un current weather patterns" ? Current weather patterns being zonality, the climatological normal ? Joe, what is interesting is that the increasing westerliness of Januarys (and, to a lesser extent, Februarys) does appear to have reversed, and the rise in mean monthly temperature has apparently reached a plateau. The westerliness index across the British Isles, meaned over ten years, reached a January peak in 1988-97, and has been decreasing year by year ever since. What we don't know, of course, is whether or not this is just a glitch in the inexorable advance of mobility. Philip Eden |
#10
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Looking at the next seven days at least it looks like the reversal could
have begun already ,goodbye glitch.....? RonB "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message .. . "Joe Hunt" wrote in message ... "danny" wrote in message ... | | | I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the | UK... for the time being anyway. | First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January | and February to halt. | | Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current | weather patterns. | I'm sorry, lost again in your scientific wizardry. Could you just explain how this "rapid rise in temperatures during Jan and Feb of course ties in with a turn around un current weather patterns" ? Current weather patterns being zonality, the climatological normal ? Joe, what is interesting is that the increasing westerliness of Januarys (and, to a lesser extent, Februarys) does appear to have reversed, and the rise in mean monthly temperature has apparently reached a plateau. The westerliness index across the British Isles, meaned over ten years, reached a January peak in 1988-97, and has been decreasing year by year ever since. What we don't know, of course, is whether or not this is just a glitch in the inexorable advance of mobility. Philip Eden |
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