There has been a sudden buzz of interest over a forthcoming cold snap
starting around the 15th January.

I have spent the last couple of hours studying the latest GFS, ECMWF, UK
MET, NO GAPs runs. I have also had a quick look at the pending cold snap
over the United States with a little help of the ETA and RSM Ensembles.

Consideration of the jet stream and SST's has been included.

The majority of models are starting to jump in line with the GFS output.
Recently the GFS has been very out-of-touch with other models however, over
the past week I believe it's starting to stabilise a little.

If this severe cold snap does occur, the heaviest of any snowfall will be
confined to the Eastern side of England, East Anglia and South-East England
(as normal in these situations).

Cold weather continues up to the end of the latest runs with steady stream
of North-Easterly winds occasionally veering Easterly.

There are three other points that draw my conclusion of a severe cold snap
from mid-January:

.. Artic Oscillation diving off the scale
.. NAO turning increasing negative
.. PNA turning positive

So all in all, a strong possibility of a severe cold snap for the Eastern
half of England in the coming weeks.
--
Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)


Read my WeatherBlog:
http://www.weatherblog.co.uk

I can't see any evidence whatever for an easterly spell, even up to
T+384, in the GFS forecasts. Nor is there anything in the ECMWF output. It
all seems like wishful thinking to me.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On 06 Jan 2004 03:13:43 GMT, (TudorHgh) wrote:

I can't see any evidence whatever for an easterly spell, even up to
T+384, in the GFS forecasts. Nor is there anything in the ECMWF output. It
all seems like wishful thinking to me.

Well the ensemble mean 850 hPa temperature for London in the latest
GFS runs at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.html
gets down to -5C by the 20th so nothing too unusual there (or at
Aberdeen for that matter)

But I do like the steady downward slope and the clusters below the
mean are tighter than those above (two hitting -12) so there's perhaps
a bit more hope of something "interesting" than usual, at least for a
run or two.

Either way, no snow for me no doubt. I'm already wondering if I'll
even get down to -2 minimum this winter.

--
Dave
Fareham

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message


Well the ensemble mean 850 hPa temperature for London in the latest
GFS runs at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.html
gets down to -5C by the 20th so nothing too unusual there (or at
Aberdeen for that matter)

http://hometown.aol.co.uk/weatherlaw...ewsletter.html
07 January 15:43. Low pressure with high winds.
15 January 04:45. Fine with high winds.
21 January 21:08. Unsettled, humid and breezy.

The times of the first two phases this year will be around quarter to
the hour. This is an awkward time for me to forecast one of the things I
wrote about asking for help in an earlier post.

"Fine weather" in this country in winter means cold weather. Although
the sun tends to shine all day during these spells and temperatures are
subsequently quite low. Lack of cloud at night is alledged to not help
too.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

"Tom" wrote in message
...
There has been a sudden buzz of interest over a forthcoming cold snap
starting around the 15th January.

I have spent the last couple of hours studying the latest GFS, ECMWF, UK
MET, NO GAPs runs. I have also had a quick look at the pending cold snap
over the United States with a little help of the ETA and RSM Ensembles.

Consideration of the jet stream and SST's has been included.

The majority of models are starting to jump in line with the GFS output.
Recently the GFS has been very out-of-touch with other models however,
over
the past week I believe it's starting to stabilise a little.

If this severe cold snap does occur, the heaviest of any snowfall will be
confined to the Eastern side of England, East Anglia and South-East
England
(as normal in these situations).

Cold weather continues up to the end of the latest runs with steady stream
of North-Easterly winds occasionally veering Easterly.

There are three other points that draw my conclusion of a severe cold snap
from mid-January:

. Artic Oscillation diving off the scale
. NAO turning increasing negative
. PNA turning positive

So all in all, a strong possibility of a severe cold snap for the Eastern
half of England in the coming weeks.

I can guarantee it will happen based on the single fact that I am going out
of the country on the 14th for a week.

I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the
UK... for the time being anyway.
First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January
and February to halt. Can't see that happening for a few years yet, maybe
never considering GW.

"Tom" wrote in message
...
There has been a sudden buzz of interest over a forthcoming cold snap
starting around the 15th January.

I have spent the last couple of hours studying the latest GFS, ECMWF, UK
MET, NO GAPs runs. I have also had a quick look at the pending cold snap
over the United States with a little help of the ETA and RSM Ensembles.

Consideration of the jet stream and SST's has been included.

The majority of models are starting to jump in line with the GFS output.
Recently the GFS has been very out-of-touch with other models however,
over
the past week I believe it's starting to stabilise a little.

If this severe cold snap does occur, the heaviest of any snowfall will be
confined to the Eastern side of England, East Anglia and South-East
England
(as normal in these situations).

Cold weather continues up to the end of the latest runs with steady stream
of North-Easterly winds occasionally veering Easterly.

There are three other points that draw my conclusion of a severe cold snap
from mid-January:

. Artic Oscillation diving off the scale
. NAO turning increasing negative
. PNA turning positive

So all in all, a strong possibility of a severe cold snap for the Eastern
half of England in the coming weeks.
--
Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)


Read my WeatherBlog:
http://www.weatherblog.co.uk

I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the
UK... for the time being anyway.
First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January
and February to halt.

Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current
weather patterns.

"danny" wrote in message
...
|
|
| I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the
| UK... for the time being anyway.
| First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January
| and February to halt.
|
| Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current
| weather patterns.
|

Hi Danny,

I'm sorry, lost again in your scientific wizardry. Could you just explain how
this "rapid rise in temperatures during Jan and Feb of course ties in with a
turn around un current weather patterns" ? Current weather patterns being
zonality, the climatological normal ?

Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"danny" wrote in message
...
|
|
| I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in
the
| UK... for the time being anyway.
| First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during
January
| and February to halt.
|
| Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current
| weather patterns.
|

I'm sorry, lost again in your scientific wizardry. Could you just explain
how
this "rapid rise in temperatures during Jan and Feb of course ties in with
a
turn around un current weather patterns" ? Current weather patterns being
zonality, the climatological normal ?

Joe, what is interesting is that the increasing westerliness of Januarys
(and,
to a lesser extent, Februarys) does appear to have reversed, and the rise
in mean monthly temperature has apparently reached a plateau. The
westerliness index across the British Isles, meaned over ten years,
reached a January peak in 1988-97, and has been decreasing year by
year ever since.

What we don't know, of course, is whether or not this is just a glitch in
the inexorable advance of mobility.

Philip Eden

Looking at the next seven days at least it looks like the reversal could
have begun already ,goodbye glitch.....?

RonB
"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
.. .

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"danny" wrote in message
...
|
|
| I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible
in
the
| UK... for the time being anyway.
| First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during
January
| and February to halt.
|
| Meant to add.... Which of course ties in with a turn round in current
| weather patterns.
|

I'm sorry, lost again in your scientific wizardry. Could you just
explain
how
this "rapid rise in temperatures during Jan and Feb of course ties in
with
a
turn around un current weather patterns" ? Current weather patterns
being
zonality, the climatological normal ?

Joe, what is interesting is that the increasing westerliness of Januarys
(and,
to a lesser extent, Februarys) does appear to have reversed, and the rise
in mean monthly temperature has apparently reached a plateau. The
westerliness index across the British Isles, meaned over ten years,
reached a January peak in 1988-97, and has been decreasing year by
year ever since.

What we don't know, of course, is whether or not this is just a glitch in
the inexorable advance of mobility.

Philip Eden