"JPG" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 6 Jan 2004 21:16:14 -0000, "Ron Button"

wrote:

As the next bout of feverish anticipation grips certain members of this
group about the possibility of an
Arctic outbreak in 10/14 days time ,should we not be looking to the
Atlantic
surface temperature profiles ?
As far as I can see most, if not all of the North Atlantic is above
normal
temperature wise , with not the slightest sign of a change ,therefore
perpetuating the endless succesion of Lows into Europe
Could some of our wiser contributors comment on this fact and still some
of
those beating hearts out there.
Thankyou


Doesn't the origination of lows require a temperature difference, rather
than an
absolute "higher" temperature?

JPG

RonB


Sorry chaps, for those wanting some proper winter weather. If you take a
look at this excellent forecast and description below of the next few days
from Metcheck, you can see that we are in for a jolly good zonal period
reminiscent of the mid 1970s. This also ties in nicely with Darren
Prescott's forecast today.
I reckon if we see snow lying here in Cambridge this month at all,
then I'll see Elvis on Mars.



Stack 'em up Baby!
Added [Wednesday January 07 2004 : 2:42:49 PM]

The UK is set for a rough old time over the next few days as a mature
depression settles over Iceland.

The system is quite unique as it is one of the first lows for a long time to
develop closed circulation all the way up to the jet stream.
In short, this means it's a mother of a depression and is likely to stick
around for quite a while as it wobbles and tilts to the Northwest.
Usually depressions have closed features at the surface, but are "steered"
by the jet stream which blows from West to East at 250mb.
This new Icelandic Low has the ability to feed on itself as it's spinning
like a top all the way up to 35,000 ft
So what does this mean for us? Well, the low will spawn off vicious
secondary lows as the jet stream is forced to duck-dive under the Icelandic
low and heads in at 250mph from the Southwest. Thursday evening could see a
nasty low head into Southern areas with another for Northern areas on
Sunday.

Expect timings to change a little, all models have real problems with upper
air lows due to the lack of data at these levels but one thing is for
certain.... batten down those hatches!

Source Metcheck.

My Comment:
See what I mean.
--
************************************************** **************************
************************************************** *
Gavin Staples.

website updated regularly
www.gavinstaples.com

For the latest lecture in the Darwin Lecture Series in Cambridge, please
click on my site, and then click on the Darwin Lecture series link.

"I have friends in overalls whose friendship I would not swap for the favor
of the kings of the world". ~Thomas A. Edison


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.

************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **

"Gavin Staples"

I reckon if we see snow lying here in Cambridge this month at all,
then I'll see Elvis on Mars.

Gavin,

You can't live all that far away from me (I'm in South Cambs)
You are welcome to come and meet Elvis who is in fact living in our house
and certainly is not on Mars..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
(Elvis is my 11 year daughter's hamster)

Jack

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

snipped

Sorry chaps, for those wanting some proper winter weather. If you take a
look at this excellent forecast and description below of the next few days
from Metcheck, you can see that we are in for a jolly good zonal period
reminiscent of the mid 1970s. This also ties in nicely with Darren
Prescott's forecast today.
I reckon if we see snow lying here in Cambridge this month at all,
then I'll see Elvis on Mars.



Stack 'em up Baby!
Added [Wednesday January 07 2004 : 2:42:49 PM]

The UK is set for a rough old time over the next few days as a mature
depression settles over Iceland.

The system is quite unique as it is one of the first lows for a long time
to
develop closed circulation all the way up to the jet stream.
In short, this means it's a mother of a depression and is likely to stick
around for quite a while as it wobbles and tilts to the Northwest.
Usually depressions have closed features at the surface, but are "steered"
by the jet stream which blows from West to East at 250mb.
This new Icelandic Low has the ability to feed on itself as it's spinning
like a top all the way up to 35,000 ft
So what does this mean for us? Well, the low will spawn off vicious
secondary lows as the jet stream is forced to duck-dive under the
Icelandic
low and heads in at 250mph from the Southwest. Thursday evening could see
a
nasty low head into Southern areas with another for Northern areas on
Sunday.

Expect timings to change a little, all models have real problems with
upper
air lows due to the lack of data at these levels but one thing is for
certain.... batten down those hatches!


Might such a system be referred to as a "Blocking Low", the low pressure
equivalent of its high pressure counterpart?. Steers everything around
itself while it hangs around in almost the same location with little or no
real change for days or weeks on end bringing day after day, week after week
of the same broad weather type to regions affected by it. Similar overall
circulation type to, say, Jan/Feb 1990.

Does such a description of a 'Blocking Low' officially exist as a recognised
atmospheric phenomenon to the Professional Meteorologist?

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------


Source Metcheck.

My Comment:
See what I mean.
--

************************************************** **************************
************************************************** *
Gavin Staples.

website updated regularly
www.gavinstaples.com

For the latest lecture in the Darwin Lecture Series in Cambridge, please
click on my site, and then click on the Darwin Lecture series link.

"I have friends in overalls whose friendship I would not swap for the
favor
of the kings of the world". ~Thomas A. Edison


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.


************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Hi Pete, such a low is usually termed "an anchoring low" in professional
circles. It has the effect you describe and comes about when the upper longwave
pattern is stable.

The present longwave pattern is not stable as the wavelength is still increasing
as the wave amplitude increases due to cold advection sending the jet
southwards, thus one can expect a lowering of temperature levels during next
week and then as the wavelength increases a mid-atlantic ridge can form and
*may* initiate an Iceland block giving a long cold spell *or* it may topple SE
giving a short 2 day cold snap, the answer is unknown and lies in detail which
is still in the making.

Shoot that mother of a ridge up northwards baby :-)

Cheers,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pete B wrote in message ...
"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

snipped

Sorry chaps, for those wanting some proper winter weather. If you take a
look at this excellent forecast and description below of the next few days
from Metcheck, you can see that we are in for a jolly good zonal period
reminiscent of the mid 1970s. This also ties in nicely with Darren
Prescott's forecast today.
I reckon if we see snow lying here in Cambridge this month at all,
then I'll see Elvis on Mars.



Stack 'em up Baby!
Added [Wednesday January 07 2004 : 2:42:49 PM]

The UK is set for a rough old time over the next few days as a mature
depression settles over Iceland.

The system is quite unique as it is one of the first lows for a long time
to
develop closed circulation all the way up to the jet stream.
In short, this means it's a mother of a depression and is likely to stick
around for quite a while as it wobbles and tilts to the Northwest.
Usually depressions have closed features at the surface, but are "steered"
by the jet stream which blows from West to East at 250mb.
This new Icelandic Low has the ability to feed on itself as it's spinning
like a top all the way up to 35,000 ft
So what does this mean for us? Well, the low will spawn off vicious
secondary lows as the jet stream is forced to duck-dive under the
Icelandic
low and heads in at 250mph from the Southwest. Thursday evening could see
a
nasty low head into Southern areas with another for Northern areas on
Sunday.

Expect timings to change a little, all models have real problems with
upper
air lows due to the lack of data at these levels but one thing is for
certain.... batten down those hatches!


Might such a system be referred to as a "Blocking Low", the low pressure
equivalent of its high pressure counterpart?. Steers everything around
itself while it hangs around in almost the same location with little or no
real change for days or weeks on end bringing day after day, week after week
of the same broad weather type to regions affected by it. Similar overall
circulation type to, say, Jan/Feb 1990.

Does such a description of a 'Blocking Low' officially exist as a recognised
atmospheric phenomenon to the Professional Meteorologist?

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------


Source Metcheck.

My Comment:
See what I mean.
--

************************************************* ***************************
************************************************** *
Gavin Staples.

website updated regularly
www.gavinstaples.com

For the latest lecture in the Darwin Lecture Series in Cambridge, please
click on my site, and then click on the Darwin Lecture series link.

"I have friends in overalls whose friendship I would not swap for the
favor
of the kings of the world". ~Thomas A. Edison


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.


************************************************* ***************************
************************************************** **

BACK AND FORTH THIS WEEK, ... with the prospect that
the cherries are lined up like the slots at Monte Carlo.
Such a temperature is the kind of thing where dogs wind up stuck to fire
hydrants.
Stack 'em up Baby!
.... this means it's a mother of a depression and is likely to stick
around for quite a while as it wobbles and tilts to the Northwest.
....This new Icelandic Low has the ability to feed on itself as it's spinning
like a top all the way up to 35,000 ft
So what does this mean for us? Well, the low will spawn off vicious
secondary lows as the jet stream is forced to duck-dive under the Icelandic
low and heads in at 250mph from the Southwest..... batten down those hatches!
Shoot that mother of a ridge up northwards baby :-)


I say...does too much exposure to the GFS do this to your lingo?

Waghorn may confine himself to the JMA in future.

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 7 Jan 2004 at 14:58:56, Gavin Staples wrote :

Sorry chaps, for those wanting some proper winter weather. If you take a
look at this excellent forecast and description below of the next few days
from Metcheck, you can see that we are in for a jolly good zonal period
reminiscent of the mid 1970s. This also ties in nicely with Darren
Prescott's forecast today.

Maybe there's a nice big volcano waiting to go off, somewhere...?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

"Paul Hyett" wrote
SNIP
Maybe there's a nice big volcano waiting to go off, somewhere...?

We're being told by some geologists that the "supervolcano" in
Yellowstone, USA, is growing, but an eruption of that one would be
catastrophic and it's likely that many of us wouldn't be around for very
long afterwards to experience its effects.

Nearer to home, new ones have been identified as potentially forming just
south of Rome and another, north of Crete. Predicted timescales vary.

My favourite is much closer to home - the Eifel Volcanic Field in western
Germany, which I rarely see mentioned.
(see: http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame...ifel/eifel.htm ) It
is thought to be the result of a "plume" and is still classified as
"active", parts of it having last erupted c.13k years ago, spewing out 5
cu km of magma.

I think a repeat of that would be a little too close for comfort.


- Tom.

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Hi Pete, such a low is usually termed "an anchoring low" in professional
circles. It has the effect you describe and comes about when the upper
longwave
pattern is stable.

The present longwave pattern is not stable as the wavelength is still
increasing
as the wave amplitude increases due to cold advection sending the jet
southwards, thus one can expect a lowering of temperature levels during
next
week and then as the wavelength increases a mid-atlantic ridge can form
and
*may* initiate an Iceland block giving a long cold spell *or* it may
topple SE
giving a short 2 day cold snap, the answer is unknown and lies in detail
which
is still in the making.

Shoot that mother of a ridge up northwards baby :-)

Cheers,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----


Will

Thanks for the very informative reply. ;-)

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

"Tom Bennett" wrote in message
...

My favourite is much closer to home - the Eifel Volcanic Field in western
Germany, which I rarely see mentioned.
(see: http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame...ifel/eifel.htm ) It
is thought to be the result of a "plume" and is still classified as
"active", parts of it having last erupted c.13k years ago, spewing out 5
cu km of magma.

I think a repeat of that would be a little too close for comfort.

Maybe this is common knowledge to geologists but it astounds me.
If the last eruption was only 13,000 years ago then are we saying that
Western Europe is a volcanically active area?
13,000 is nothing in geological terms........

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk