In message , Martin Rowley
writes

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Hi Keith, honestly I'm really not sure. I still cannot do better than
the trend
I issued on thursday.


... this is the key: the situation is highly volatile - a small change
one way or the other will be the key: the models nowadays are *superb*
but they can't do the whole job. The best that can be done is to outline
the possibilities and prepare for what might happen.

Martin.

It's a fascinating conundrum. The models handle the broadscale well in
these situations but the detail much less well. As ever, it's the detail
that really matters.

The 06z run of the GFS is predicting nothing stronger than a mean speed
of 20 knots for this location on Monday. We shall see

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to reply)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...

|
| Martin.
|
| It's a fascinating conundrum. The models handle the broadscale well in
| these situations but the detail much less well. As ever, it's the detail
| that really matters.
|
| The 06z run of the GFS is predicting nothing stronger than a mean speed
| of 20 knots for this location on Monday. We shall see
|
| Norman.
| (delete "thisbit" twice to reply)

Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

Joe

In message , Joe Hunt
writes

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...

|
| Martin.
|
| It's a fascinating conundrum. The models handle the broadscale well in
| these situations but the detail much less well. As ever, it's the detail
| that really matters.
|
| The 06z run of the GFS is predicting nothing stronger than a mean speed
| of 20 knots for this location on Monday. We shall see
|
| Norman.
| (delete "thisbit" twice to reply)

Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

Joe

The 12z GFS run gives mean winds only up to 17 knots on Monday for this
location. It's all on a bit of a knife edge.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to reply)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 18:13:24 +0000, Norman Lynagh wrote in


Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

Joe

The 12z GFS run gives mean winds only up to 17 knots on Monday for this
location. It's all on a bit of a knife edge.

Fascinating indeed. I have just looked at the 12z GFS run and what stands
out for me is the incredibly tight thermal gradient (as seen by the 500mb
temps superimposed on the surface progs), around 45 to 50 deg to our south
west.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 10/01/2004 18:44:16 UTC

On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 18:44:16 +0000, Mike Tullett
wrote:

On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 18:13:24 +0000, Norman Lynagh wrote in


Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

The 12z GFS run gives mean winds only up to 17 knots on Monday for this
location. It's all on a bit of a knife edge.

Fascinating indeed. I have just looked at the 12z GFS run and what stands
out for me is the incredibly tight thermal gradient (as seen by the 500mb
temps superimposed on the surface progs), around 45 to 50 deg to our south
west.

Yes, today's 12Z MetOffice "Fax" for 12Z Monday looks scary for the
North French coast - 80Kts near there, according to the geostrophic
wind scale on the full size pdf from Avbrief).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.html

And the real action (if it happens) looks just a little bit *too
close* to the South Coast for my comfort. At least the models are
still diverging to some extent!

--
Dave
Fareham

And the real action (if it happens) looks just a little bit *too
close* to the South Coast for my comfort. At least the models are
still diverging to some extent!

--
Dave
Fareham


Wonder what it will be like in the se

"nguk.." wrote in message ...
|
|
| And the real action (if it happens) looks just a little bit *too
| close* to the South Coast for my comfort. At least the models are
| still diverging to some extent!
|
| --
| Dave
| Fareham
|
|
| Wonder what it will be like in the se

I'm sure you'll fill us in

Joe

Neil,

You didn't put where you were in the heading - I thought you were talking
about SE Greece...;-)))

Paul (Lincolnshire)
"nguk.." wrote in message
...


And the real action (if it happens) looks just a little bit *too
close* to the South Coast for my comfort. At least the models are
still diverging to some extent!

--
Dave
Fareham


Wonder what it will be like in the se