uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old January 11th 04, 05:03 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default British Isles Outlook - 21st to 31st January 2004

The general pressure situation for the period 21st to 31st January is
almost a re-hash of what we've already had - LP to the N and NW of
the country - W or SW winds across the country. - a free flow
of smaller depressions coming at us from the Atlantic and an area of
HP from central Scandinavia stretching S'wards over Germany, E France,
down to W Italy. There is also a glimpse of the Azores HP in the form
of a ridge up to W Biscay.

The general run of weather over the period is for, at first, a flat
ridge of HP to cross southern areas as it stretches into the
continent. At the same time, a large area of LP approaches Britain
from the NW and climaxes as a trough stretching N to S down the
country on 25th. Now, on 26th, HP builds up from the SW and spreads
over the country. Behind it, (as HP builds up near Scandinavia) a LP
comes into W'ern areas and extends from near Iceland down to France
over the last few days of the month.

London's temperature is expected to generally rise till about 28th
January. Small dips in the curve are expected near 22nd, 24th 29th and
31st. Small warmer peaks are expected near 21st, 23rd, 28th and
30th.

Major rain areas for the period appear to be in the NW of the country
and the SE parts of England. The dryer areas being the E of Scotland
and the E and NE parts of England.

Windy days are expected during the period. Sea areas near W Scotland
are the areas most likely to be affected. from about 21st to 23rd,
25th, 27th and 31st January. On 29th January, wind could be stronger
off the SW coast .- during the afternoon - as a secondary LP is
expected to come into the country.

On 21st January, an elongated LP area stretches W to E from the
Atlantic to the North Sea. A LP centre in its W half is moving towards
the British Isles and a second LP centre in its E'ern half over the
North Sea is moving away NE'wards. Between the two LP centres, a
flat Azores ridge up to S Ireland is spreading eastwards towards the
continent. Winds are W or NW at first, backing later to SW. Weather
will be fair in most parts but cloud and rain will spread in from the W
later. .

On 22nd January, a medium to large sized depression lies to the NW of
the country. A secondary LP on its SW flank is moving ENE towards the
Channel. A belt of HP from the Azores HP stretches from the Biscay
area, through France, Germany and Poland, towards Russia. Winds will
be SW over the country, strong at times in the NW. Weather will be
frequent showers of rain, but dryer in the S and SE.

On 23rd January, LP can still be found to the NW of the country with a
trough stretching SE'wards down to SE England. A small secondary may
be crossing S England and another secondary out in the Atlantic is
moving E'wards. HP lies over the Norwegian Sea and the Azores HP
reaches up to the Biscay area. Both these HPs move towards each
other near Germany. Winds will have a southerly direction in the E of
the country and a W to NW direction in the W of the country. Showers of
rain will cross the country, but improving weather will come into the S
and SE later.

On 24th January, a large LP lies to the NW of the country and HP
stretches from the Channel area up to the Baltic. Winds will be SW
over the country with the dryest weather in the S and SE and the more
frequent showers in the NW of the country.

On 25th January, the LP has moved E'wards and now lies to the N and NE
of the country. A new LP approaches from the Atlantic. A small
ridge from the Azores HP covers Ireland and England and drifts rather
quickly E'wards towards Denmark. There could be a small LP to the NW of
Spain but I don't think this will interfere with British weather. Winds
could be light at first becoming SW later. Some frost and fog early,
but cloud and rain spreading in from the W and NW later.

On 26th January, a belt of LP stretches from N Ireland to N
Scandinavia and moves NE'wards. As the LP moves away, HP behind it
enters SW'ern areas by about noon and crosses southern areas. HP
covers the central Europe and the Baltic drawing W to SW winds across
the country. Weather will be rainy in the NW and dryer in the SE of the
country.

On 27th January, a medium sized LP has come to the SW of Iceland with a
secondary LP on its SW flank. An area of HP covers France and SE
England and rushes E'wards into the continen to join up with the HP
over N Russiat. Winds will be light in the S and SE but SW'erly in the W
and N of the country. Weather will be fog and frost early in the SE of
the country but cloud and rain will enter the country from the W.

28th January, a trough from the LP to the S and SW of Iceland
stretches into the North Sea. Waves travel E'wards along its S flank
into the country. A ridge of the Azores HP approaches NW Spain as it
builds up during the morning and stretches NE'wards. HP lies over
central parts of Scandinavia and N Russia. Weather will be mostly
cloudy with heavy rain in some parts.

29th January, A LP lies near Iceland with a small LP on its S flank
moving E'ward towards S Ireland. HP stretches from the Channel to S
Scandinavia. An HP area also lies over Poland and N Russia. Winds will
be light in the S of the country but SW in the NW of the country.
There may be frost and fog early in the S, but cloud in the NW will
spread SE'wards.

30th January, a medium sized LP near Iceland has a trough down through
Wales and into E France and NE Spain. A large HP area covers parts of
N Russia and central parts of Scandinavia and drifts slowly E. Winds
will have a southerly direction in the E of the country and W or NW in
the extreme W of the country. The weather will be dismal with cloud and
rain in most areas.

31st January LP still exists to the W and NW of the country. The Azores
HP comes up to W France, and at the same time the Greenland HP develops
S'wards down by E Iceland, perhaps as far as Germany. The Scandinavian
HP is expected to have drifted away E'wards. Winds are SW in the W of
the country but becoming light in the E and NE of the country. Weather
will be fair in the S and E'ern parts, but cloud and showers will
slowly move into the W and NW of the country.

Cheers, Keith







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Old January 11th 04, 05:16 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Col Col is offline
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Default British Isles Outlook - 21st to 31st January 2004


"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...

big snip

From one of your previous posts..........

On 12th January a medium sized LP lies to the NW of Britain with a
trough E'wards towards the Norwegian coast. A secondary LP out in the
Atlantic moves in the direction of SW Britain. A large area of HP
covers central Europe and the Mediterranean. Winds are generally from
the W. Once again Scotland has the most rain, while central and SE
areas are dryer.

No mention of the severe storm that is expected to hit southern England
tomorrow. Indeed it's all completely wrong as the southern half of the
country is expected to be very wet, utterly in contrast with your forecast
that suggests Scotland will have the most rain.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


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Old January 11th 04, 07:51 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default British Isles Outlook - 21st to 31st January 2004

Oh, sorry, I didn't read it correctly... You were quoting a previous
post.

Andy.

--
Andy Smith
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Old January 11th 04, 11:05 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 157
Default British Isles Outlook - 21st to 31st January 2004

The forecast you quoted was posted 9 days out - it was forecast some 12 to
14 days out. I forecast the secondary coming into the SW on 12th quite
well, I thought. (All descriptions are from the 00Z charts) The next one
on Tuesday has been forecast quite well, too. A few days later comes the
next one. And I think that's been done quite well, too.

This is an Outlook at long-range - not a 3 day affair. Perhaps you're
looking for a long range chart with more detail. I'm sorry I couldn't
oblige, but if you find one, let me know.

Cheers, Keith

Col schrieb:

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...

big snip

From one of your previous posts..........

On 12th January a medium sized LP lies to the NW of Britain with a
trough E'wards towards the Norwegian coast. A secondary LP out in the
Atlantic moves in the direction of SW Britain. A large area of HP
covers central Europe and the Mediterranean. Winds are generally from
the W. Once again Scotland has the most rain, while central and SE
areas are dryer.

No mention of the severe storm that is expected to hit southern England
tomorrow. Indeed it's all completely wrong as the southern half of the
country is expected to be very wet, utterly in contrast with your forecast
that suggests Scotland will have the most rain.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk




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