Heathrow tomorrow:

TAF EGLL 112232Z 120624 19012KT 7000 RA BKN030
TEMPO 0613 3000 +RA BKN014
BECMG 0709 10012KT
BECMG 0912 01012KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0913 22020G35KT
BECMG 1114 34015G30KT
TEMPO 1215 34025G36KT
BECMG 1416 9999 NSW
BECMG 1618 27015KT
BECMG 2023 19010KT=


So between 0900 and 1200 we're backing from 100 to 010 to 340 at 12 knots
with the occasional spell in the *opposite* direction (220) at 20 gusting
35.

I've never seen anything like that. I look forward to Phil's report, if he's
on! :-)

The Gatwick forecast has it verring from 160 to 220 to 330 over a similar
period:

TAF EGKK 112232Z 120624 18012KT 7000 RA BKN025
TEMPO 0611 16018G30KT 3500 +RA BKN009
BECMG 0911 22020G35KT 9999 NSW
TEMPO 1013 25025G48KT
PROB30 TEMPO 1115 7000 SHRA BKN012
BECMG 1214 33020G35KT
BECMG 1518 28010KT
BECMG 2124 19010KT=

Julian Scarfe
www.avbrief.com

It looks as if they have both ticked the "Don't know" box, and I for one
can't blame them in this situation. But it does look now as if not only my
house is not going to be blown over, but not even my plastic dustbin. A
reasonable interpretation of the GFS chart for midday would be light and
variable winds at both places.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey.

"TudorHgh" wrote in message


It looks as if they have both ticked the "Don't know" box, and I for one
can't blame them in this situation.
snip

We know what we don't know, it's what we don't know that we don't know
that's worrying ! (or something like that :-)

Jon.



--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

On 12 Jan 2004 00:39:27 GMT, (TudorHgh) wrote:

It looks as if they have both ticked the "Don't know" box, and I for one
can't blame them in this situation. But it does look now as if not only my
house is not going to be blown over, but not even my plastic dustbin. A
reasonable interpretation of the GFS chart for midday would be light and
variable winds at both places.

The latest update on BBC News 24 weather at 01:27 (not prerecorded) is
this:

"South of a line from North Devon to North Kent, there is a RISK of
severe gales with gusts upto 60/70 mph with possible 80 mph in the
South East. About 10 mph higher over the sea."

And "some slight uncertainty over where the track of this Low is
going to go, so it may affect just where the heaviest rain and the
strongest winds willl be"

So there we have it. They still don't know but are forecasting on the
safe side. However, most people will have taken that forecast (within
12 hours of the event) to mean there WILL be a storm (but storm wasn't
mentioned, structural damage was!)

I, too, suspect the strongest winds will be south of the Isle of
Wight (I hope!) but... I don't envy the forecasters tonight one little
bit!

--
Dave
Fareham

Sorry for top posting, but i'm about to go to bed and I really couldn't be
bothered with being prope.r (i'm nomally found in the tec groups! [if you
see what I mean], and they ahtew top posting)

I saw the weather at 01:30 and couldn't belive how it was being played down.
This afternoon I had hailstones in my garden that where at least half inch
accross and I reckon thats not normal [for Bath anway]

Part of me says bring it on...... we never get a decent storm, but then,
people get hurt when we do get a big storm, so.....

what do we wish for?

do you want me to post the 'macro' photo's of the our 16mm hailstone photos
from earlier today?

cheers Simon

PS. The first blast was so deep with no flash, I thought a 'secret' plane
was goiung over. Then I had a fag [cigarette] outside and knew things was
not right!

Sorry, pwell hammered now. Going to bed........




"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On 12 Jan 2004 00:39:27 GMT, (TudorHgh) wrote:

It looks as if they have both ticked the "Don't know" box, and I for
one
can't blame them in this situation. But it does look now as if not only
my
house is not going to be blown over, but not even my plastic dustbin. A
reasonable interpretation of the GFS chart for midday would be light and
variable winds at both places.

The latest update on BBC News 24 weather at 01:27 (not prerecorded) is
this:

"South of a line from North Devon to North Kent, there is a RISK of
severe gales with gusts upto 60/70 mph with possible 80 mph in the
South East. About 10 mph higher over the sea."

And "some slight uncertainty over where the track of this Low is
going to go, so it may affect just where the heaviest rain and the
strongest winds willl be"

So there we have it. They still don't know but are forecasting on the
safe side. However, most people will have taken that forecast (within
12 hours of the event) to mean there WILL be a storm (but storm wasn't
mentioned, structural damage was!)

I, too, suspect the strongest winds will be south of the Isle of
Wight (I hope!) but... I don't envy the forecasters tonight one little
bit!

--
Dave
Fareham

"Julian Scarfe" wrote in message
...
Heathrow tomorrow:

TAF EGLL 112232Z 120624 19012KT 7000 RA BKN030
TEMPO 0613 3000 +RA BKN014
BECMG 0709 10012KT
BECMG 0912 01012KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0913 22020G35KT
BECMG 1114 34015G30KT
TEMPO 1215 34025G36KT
BECMG 1416 9999 NSW
BECMG 1618 27015KT
BECMG 2023 19010KT=


So between 0900 and 1200 we're backing from 100 to 010 to 340 at 12 knots
with the occasional spell in the *opposite* direction (220) at 20 gusting
35.

I've never seen anything like that. I look forward to Phil's report, if
he's
on! :-)

Hmm. I take it nothing much blew away then:

METAR EGLL 120920Z 15004KT 130V210 8000 RA BKN014 OVC028 07/06 Q0992 TEMPO
4500=
EGLL 120950Z 13006KT 8000 RA FEW014 BKN020 OVC030 07/06 Q0992 TEMPO 4500
BKN012=
METAR EGLL 121020Z 10004KT 050V130 9000 RA FEW007 SCT020 OVC030 07/06 Q0991
RERA TEMPO 4500 BKN009=
METAR EGLL 121050Z 06004KT 010V090 7000 RA FEW007 OVC030 07/06 Q0991 TEMPO
4500 BKN009=
METAR EGLL 121120Z 03004KT 350V050 8000 RA FEW010 SCT022 OVC035 07/07 Q0991
TEMPO 4500 BKN009=
METAR EGLL 121150Z 36004KT 330V040 8000 RA FEW006 BKN038 OVC090 07/06 Q0991
BECMG -RA=
METAR EGLL 121220Z 35005KT 9000 -RA FEW007 SCT024 BKN040 07/06 Q0991 RERA
NOSIG=

Wrong sort of wind, perhaps? ;-)

Seriously, it must have been a nightmare to call -- the folks at the Met
Office have my sympathy.

Julian Scarfe