In message , Will
writes

================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

Norman, clearly you are correct when you say that the 12Z runs were
*apparently*
ignored. But the Chief forecaster on duty must have had his reasons as
one would
ignore model data at your peril, particularly when it is backed up by
the GFS or
other models. Perhaps he was "twitchy" (as I was) about the low developing in a
data sparse area, the obvious developmental satellite imagery and the analysed
160 knot plus jet ?

Will.

As I said, hindsight is a wonderful thing I am very glad that I was
not the Chief Forecaster on duty having to deal with it in real time.

As someone who started his career in the days of "pencil and rubber"
forecasting I get some satisfaction out of seeing that the problems of
operational forecasting have not yet been completely cracked

Norman
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

Out of interest with newer and more advanced satellites being put into
the earths orbit, will this 'sparse data area' have more coverage in
the future? I'm sure we have the technology to monitor the various
atmospheric components on a 3D scale, temperature, water vapour, ice,
wind velocity, shear, etc, etc, etc. Surely this is the only way
forward.

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
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On Mon, 12 Jan 2004 21:56:01 -0000, "Will"
wrote:


================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

Norman, clearly you are correct when you say that the 12Z runs were *apparently*
ignored. But the Chief forecaster on duty must have had his reasons as one would
ignore model data at your peril, particularly when it is backed up by the GFS or
other models. Perhaps he was "twitchy" (as I was) about the low developing in a
data sparse area, the obvious developmental satellite imagery and the analysed
160 knot plus jet ?

Will.