================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather so
much.

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

The evidence was there, it tracked further south, the jet wasn't quite as strong
as expected, further details not in evidence, eg. lack of clear water vapour dry
slot yesterday evening prob implying later deepening. GFS did well, but
hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I made a mistake and I'll make many more no doubt, but I'll still get more right
than wrong !

Humbling cheers,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will wrote:

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather so
much.

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

You werent the only one to forecast stormy weather. Twas just one of
natures little jokes. And if things had been a little different a lot of
people would have been thanking you for allowing them time to prepare.
Its just the way life goes sometimes.

Sarah H

Can't see any need for an apology from yourself Will, you made a judgement
which in the end was wrong. Those who's job it is to warn the nation (you
know who I'm talking about) should be the one apologising.

Don't let this put off your weekly forecasts.

--
Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)

Read my WeatherBlog:
http://www.weatherblog.co.uk

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather
so
much.

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

The evidence was there, it tracked further south, the jet wasn't quite as
strong
as expected, further details not in evidence, eg. lack of clear water
vapour dry
slot yesterday evening prob implying later deepening. GFS did well, but
hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I made a mistake and I'll make many more no doubt, but I'll still get more
right
than wrong !

Humbling cheers,

Will.
--

Well, IMHO, all of those that said "beware there could be a big problem on
its way" are in the right.

Surely if there had been loss of life, severe damage to buildings that this
could have caused and no-one said anything then it would be "what
hurricane?" all over again?

The weather is an unpredictable beast.

Everyone does their best, the seers, the scryers, the seeweeders, the
computer models, but at the end of the day, Mother Nature is gonna do it her
way and thats that. No refunds, no changing of minds, the editors decision
is final.

For the most part the forecasters get it close (and sometimes they get it
right), but this was an instance where the possibilities never occured.

But, and this is a key but to all forecasting techniques

Can the reason it wasnt right be discerned and learned from?

All I can say is well done Will - at least we were prepared - its not crying
wolf as some have suggested, as from what I have read there is the
possibility of something nasty tonight too.

Si (a very interested observer of the weather rather than a forecaster)

Will,

Your apology is not necessary for me, at least my tree surgeon was very
happy the forecast was wrong after emptying my wallet this afternoon(:

Chris
Kempston, Bedford

--

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather
so
much.

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

The evidence was there, it tracked further south, the jet wasn't quite as
strong
as expected, further details not in evidence, eg. lack of clear water
vapour dry
slot yesterday evening prob implying later deepening. GFS did well, but
hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I made a mistake and I'll make many more no doubt, but I'll still get more
right
than wrong !

Humbling cheers,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

I would rather be forewarned early and then to see no storm, than to have no
warning and suffer. So thank you for the forecasts, and from my point of
view no apology necesary from any party.

Chris

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather
so
much.

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

The evidence was there, it tracked further south, the jet wasn't quite as
strong
as expected, further details not in evidence, eg. lack of clear water
vapour dry
slot yesterday evening prob implying later deepening. GFS did well, but
hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I made a mistake and I'll make many more no doubt, but I'll still get more
right
than wrong !

Humbling cheers,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

"simonk" wrote in message
...
Well, IMHO, all of those that said "beware there could be a big problem on
its way" are in the right.

Surely if there had been loss of life, severe damage to buildings that
this
could have caused and no-one said anything then it would be "what
hurricane?" all over again?

The weather is an unpredictable beast.

Everyone does their best, the seers, the scryers, the seeweeders, the
computer models, but at the end of the day, Mother Nature is gonna do it
her
way and thats that. No refunds, no changing of minds, the editors
decision
is final.

For the most part the forecasters get it close (and sometimes they get it
right), but this was an instance where the possibilities never occured.

But, and this is a key but to all forecasting techniques

Can the reason it wasnt right be discerned and learned from?

All I can say is well done Will - at least we were prepared - its not
crying
wolf as some have suggested, as from what I have read there is the
possibility of something nasty tonight too.

Si (a very interested observer of the weather rather than a forecaster)



I agree. No need to apologise Will.

Victor

Hi Will

There is no need to appologise whatsoever. The fact is, these medium sized
LP cells that form around the "mother low" in a strong jet are probably the
most difficult mesoscale evenst to forecast. The potential was there for
extreme conditions. Your warning, albeit incorrect, could have saved lives.
I for one hope you do not in anyway shape or form, react negatively to your
one off incorrect call. Your posts are always a pleasure to read, more often
than not they are correct and extremely informative!


Regards

Sean Blowman

Will" wrote in message
...

OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather
so
much.

Yes I do think you were rather OTT in way you presented your analysis...

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

Each to his own style....

The evidence was there, it tracked further south, the jet wasn't quite as
strong
as expected, further details not in evidence, eg. lack of clear water
vapour dry
slot yesterday evening prob implying later deepening. GFS did well, but
hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I made a mistake and I'll make many more no doubt, but I'll still get more
right
than wrong !

No I don't think you made a 'mistake'. ( If the wrong answer is arrived at
in a calculation, then that IS a mistake). If you or the workers at Exeter
examine all the data and evidence available and using the best of their
considerable skill and experience produce a forecast which in the event is
wrong to some degree then no 'mistake' has been made. With no hindsight and
given the same initial data again, the same forecast would probably result.
As has been said 'ad nauseum' in this NG ...PRESENTATION is the main problem
as I see it. The Met Office can and should improve on this aspect. The
Media I'm afraid are beyond hope and will probably only get worse.
Sorry to be pedantic....
Best wishes
John
--
York,
North Yorkshire.
(Norman Virus Protected)

"

"Will" wrote in message
...

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

Good to hear it Will! Last night was the first time in a while that I have
seen you explode with enthusiasm, excitement and knowledge and I for one
learnt a hell of a lot from your postings and will be able to look out for
features which before I'd never been aware of, if the situation arises
again.

A