On the day Countryfile took us into the £M umpteen new building, showing
acres of supercomputers and other clever gadgets, along comes a little
depression to turn the forecast to maggots. Now, when forecasters were
forecasters, ( and the ordinary chap on the bench could read AND understand
an article in the QJ ) Mr C.K.M. Douglas would think to himself ' I have
seen one exactly like that, 25 years ago, which turned right at the last
moment ' Ah well ;-) keith chaplin


--
Remove Caps for e mail

Yes it all looked so impressive, especially the huge supercomputers. Very
HAL 9000.
Maybe Michael Fish had removed its higher brain functions yesterday evening,
;-)


=====================================
"Keith Chaplin" wrote in message
...
On the day Countryfile took us into the £M umpteen new building, showing
acres of supercomputers and other clever gadgets, along comes a little
depression to turn the forecast to maggots. Now, when forecasters were
forecasters, ( and the ordinary chap on the bench could read AND
understand
an article in the QJ ) Mr C.K.M. Douglas would think to himself ' I have
seen one exactly like that, 25 years ago, which turned right at the last
moment ' Ah well ;-) keith chaplin


--
Remove Caps for e mail

. Now, when forecasters were
forecasters, ( and the ordinary chap on the bench could read AND understand
an article in the QJ ) Mr C.K.M. Douglas would think to himself ' I have
seen one exactly like that, 25 years ago, which turned right at the last
moment '

Mmm, a very romantic view. I was a junior forecaster in 1966 and probably
brighter than the average and I can tell you that neither I or any of the more
senior forecasters, whose judgments I respected, could make head nor tail of
most of the stuff in the QJ, not that it mattered in the least. And knowing
that a Low behaved in a certain way 25 years ago, although it bespeaks great
and valuable experience, is not as useful as it might look. One of the truisms
I have learnt since is that an unusual synoptic situation suddenly appears for
the first time, repeats itself a few times over a period of a month or two, and
is then never seen again. This can fool anyone, as has happened just now.
Why did I leave the Met Office? Well, what 23-yr-old wants to go to bed at
8.30 a.m. so tired as to feel quite ****ed, yet be actually totally sober. It
was 9 to 5 for me after that, with the weather as a rather intense hobby.
Sorry!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On 13 Jan 2004 01:13:36 GMT, (TudorHgh) wrote:

Well, what 23-yr-old wants to go to bed at
8.30 a.m. so tired as to feel quite ****ed, yet be actually totally sober. It
was 9 to 5 for me after that, with the weather as a rather intense hobby.
Sorry!

Yes, I always worried that when driving home after a night shift, if I got
stopped by the police my slurred voice would make them go for the breathalyser.
It was nice when I gave up shift work and went into research support at
Bracknell.

JPG




Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
. Now, when forecasters were
forecasters, ( and the ordinary chap on the bench could read AND
understand
an article in the QJ ) Mr C.K.M. Douglas would think to himself ' I have
seen one exactly like that, 25 years ago, which turned right at the last
moment '

. One of the truisms
I have learnt since is that an unusual synoptic situation suddenly appears
for
the first time, repeats itself a few times over a period of a month or
two, and
is then never seen again. This can fool anyone, as has happened just now.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Interesting comment. I can recall occasions when near 50 year events
occurred quite close together (in time) and then nothing like it for yonks.
(Can Norman or Philip comment here) So what is the Ingredient X that is
missing from the forecaster's toolkit. We have seen learned discussions
about jet stream streaks, forcing, PV, WV patterns,mid level troughs, all of
which must have been churned around by the Exeter computer, but the wrong
answer came out.
Apart from the spectaculars, I feel there are a good number of smaller
errors at say, +72 hrs, a 10 to 15 knot wind error over the sea could make
an important difference to a significant wave height forecast. There are (or
were) critical offshore works that needed near perfection, although I
suppose industry and many others have built themselves out of weather
dependency . keith chaplin

--
Remove Caps for e mail

In message , Keith
Chaplin writes

"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
. Now, when forecasters were
forecasters, ( and the ordinary chap on the bench could read AND
understand
an article in the QJ ) Mr C.K.M. Douglas would think to himself ' I have
seen one exactly like that, 25 years ago, which turned right at the last
moment '

. One of the truisms
I have learnt since is that an unusual synoptic situation suddenly appears
for
the first time, repeats itself a few times over a period of a month or
two, and
is then never seen again. This can fool anyone, as has happened just now.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Interesting comment. I can recall occasions when near 50 year events
occurred quite close together (in time) and then nothing like it for yonks.
(Can Norman or Philip comment here)

Without digging very deep I can't quote any specific examples but I
agree that it is not unusual for extreme events to occur fairly close
together, far enough apart to seem independent but probably linked in
some way.

Another interesting point is that extreme weather events often result
from situations that don't look like the "big one". For example, the
biggest waves in the North Sea are often not associated with the worst
windstorms. Heavy snowfalls on low ground in this country often come
"unexpectedly" in situations that are not obvious snow producers.
Yesterday's snow in the Midlands was a not-very-good example of this.
The heavy snow of early December 1981 to the north of London was a
better example. We all have out pet examples.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

,So what is the Ingredient X that is
missing from the forecaster's toolkit. We have seen learned discussions
about jet stream streaks, forcing, PV, WV patterns,mid level troughs, all of
which must have been churned around by the Exeter computer, but the wrong
answer came out.
I think part of the answer is that we don't fully understand frontal wave cyclogenesis ie we don't
have a full conceptual model of the dynamics,why some frontal cyclones 'bomb' and others don't.NWP
output and satellite imagery has to be interpreted with a good model and understanding of the
processes at work.Work on the FASTEX database will no doubt go some way to help,


--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

Without digging very deep I can't quote any specific examples but I
agree that it is not unusual for extreme events to occur fairly close
together
An example might be the two storms that struck France in 1999,there the common factor was the
straight, fast jet that persisted over the N Atlantic somewhat like last weekend.I believe it's been
mooted that the disturbance associated with the most devestating storm 'Lothar' was triggered by
large scale convection in the west Pacific.
Tropical or sub tropical disturbances are thought to promote Rossby wave trains that propagate via
the jet stream and cause remote synoptic disturbances or sequences of such. eg
http://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/t...aper_74456.htm

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)