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Old January 15th 04, 06:59 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (15/01/04)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0700z,
15/01/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
Westerlies and WSW'lies cover the UK as the result of a low over Iceland and
high pressure over Biscay. The high sinks SW'wards at T+144, with westerlies
for all. By T+168 the westerlies increase in strength, due to a deep low to
the NW of Scotland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows strong westerlies for all, due to a low to the SE
of Iceland and high pressure over France and Spain. The westerlies continue
at T+144.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/
A large high is centred over Iberia, with westerlies over the UK. The
westerlies continue at T+144 as the high builds and sinks slowly SE'wards,
while 850hPa temperatures range from +1C over Northern Ireland to +5C over
SW and SE England. The winds become WSW'lies and westerlies at T+144, as
complex low pressure moves eastwards over and around Iceland. Westerlies
affect the UK at T+168 as a secondary low passes to the north of Scotland.
The chart for day 8 shows NW'lies for all as a ridge builds to the west,
followed by NW'lies and SW'lies as the ridge toppples over the UK on day 9.
By day 10, winds are westerlies and NW'lies, with a trough over the North
Sea.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a col over Scotland and westerlies to the south, due
to high pressure over Iberia. 850hPa temperatures range from -2C over NW
Scotland to +6C over Northern Ireland. By T+144 the winds are westerlies and
WNW'lies, as a weak ridge moves over Ireland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
A ridge from an Iberian high covers southern England and the North Sea,
resulting in SW'lies for most of the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from
freezing over NE Scotland to +5C over Northern Ireland. The winds become
SW'lies for all at T+144 as two lows surround Iceland, followed by WSW'lies
at T+168 as one of the lows deepens and moves slowly southwards. There's
little change on day 8, althought the winds strengthen slightly as a low
deepens to the north of the UK.

In summary, the models today continue to show relatively mild, unsettled
weather for the first half of next week.



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