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Old January 17th 04, 09:50 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 12Z Model Summary - Saturday 17th January 2004

Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Wednesday 21st January 2004
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm961.html
High pressure (1025mb) lies over the Azores, with another high
(1030mb) over Scandinavia. Low pressure (1000mb) lies over Western
Russia and Southeastern Europe, with another low (970mb) well to the
west of the UK in the Atlantic. Winds across the country are moderate
southwesterlies in the northwest, but light elsewhere and variable in
direction. Most areas will be rather cloudy, with rain at times
towards the northwest. Temperatures will be close to normal in most
parts. Beyond this pressure builds strongly to the northeast and tries
to ridge southwest towards the UK, but most of the country sees rather
more unsettled conditions trying to move in from the Atlantic with the
south and east staying mainly dry.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1025mb) lies over Spain and the Azores. Another high
(1020mb) lies over Scandinavia. Low pressure (990mb) lies over
Southeastern Europe with another low (970mb) well to the northwest of
the UK in the Atlantic. Winds across the country are mostly light to
moderate south/southwesterlies. Most parts will be mainly cloudy with
some rain in places. 850hpa temperatures range from 0C in the east to
+5C in the far southwest. Forecast 2m temperatures are close to +9C in
many parts. Beyond this pressure builds strongly to the northeast and
tries to ridge southwest towards the UK, but generally there is little
change, with most parts seeing a lot of cloud and a little rain at
times, although colder air does spread into the east.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...171200_096.gif
High pressure (1030mb) lies over the Azores and ridges towards
Scandinavia. Low pressure (995mb) lies over Southeastern Europe, with
another low (970mb) well to the northwest of the UK in the Atlantic.
Winds across the country are mostly light to moderate westerlies. Many
areas will be mainly dry and cloudy, but perhaps some rain in the
northwest. Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond this most
parts turn rather unsettled and windy as Atlantic systems move in.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp961.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp962.html
High pressure (1030mb) lies close to Spain and Portugal, and ridges
northeastwards towards Scandinavia. Low pressure (995mb) lies over
Southeast Europe, with another low (965mb) well to the northwest of
the UK in the Atlantic. Winds across the country are mostly moderate
southwesterlies. Many areas will be mainly dry and cloudy, but with
some rain in the northwest especially. 850hPa temperatures range from
0C in Southeast England and Northern Scotland to +5C in Southwest
Ireland. Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond this most parts
are rather unsettled and windy as Atlantic systems move in.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1030mb) lies over the Azores, with another ridge of
high pressure (1020mb) over Scandinavia. Low pressure (1000mb) lies
over Southeast Europe, with another low (970mb) well to the west of
the UK in the Atlantic. Winds across the country are mostly light to
moderate west/southwesterlies. Most parts will see mostly dry and
cloudy conditions with a little rain towards the northwest. 850hpa
temperatures range from 0C in the north to +5C in the southwest.
Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond this pressure builds
strongly to the northeast and tries to ridge towards the UK, but mild
Atlantic air moves in across the UK with most of the unsettled
conditions in the northwest, although the far east may see some colder
conditions for a time.

Canadian – T+72 hours for TUESDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
Low pressure (971mb) lies well to the west of the UK in the Atlantic.
High pressure (1030mb) lies to the west of Spain and Portugal, with
another high (1027mb) building over Norway. Winds across the country
are mainly light to moderate west/northwesterlies. Many areas will be
mainly dry and bright, but with variable amounts of cloud.
Temperatures will be close to normal.

Summary:
The models continue to indicate that most parts will be mostly mild
next week, with most of the unsettled weather towards the northwest of
Britain. However, pressure rising to the northeast needs watching, and
may introduce some colder air to eastern parts, as indicated by the
T+144 GFS chart ( http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1445.html ).

Also, a special mention to the T+192 JMA chart. It almost certainly
won't happen, but just imagine if it did...! (
http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma1921.html )

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