Its all over!

My animation has just been updated (which has now moved to http://www.vegetableplot.com )
According to the 18z GFS run... we could be seeing ( mild ) SWies next Wednesday.


--
Brendan DJ Murphy
Rayleigh, Essex, 51:34N 0:36E 30m asl
Castle Point Astronomy Club http://www.cpac.org.uk

On Wed, 21 Jan 2004 23:03:56 -0000, "Brendan DJ Murphy"
wrote:

Its all over!

My animation has just been updated (which has now moved to http://www.vegetableplot.com )
According to the 18z GFS run... we could be seeing ( mild ) SWies next Wednesday.

Same as the day before last. Opposite of yesterday.

Any bets for tomorrow?

--
Dave

Its all over!

My animation has just been updated (which has now moved to http://www.vegetableplot.com )
According to the 18z GFS run... we could be seeing ( mild ) SWies next Wednesday.

Same as the day before last. Opposite of yesterday.

Any bets for tomorrow?



Are you implying that there is a pattern forming?

Back to NE tomorrow or stronger SWies?




--
Brendan DJ Murphy
Rayleigh, Essex, 51:34N 0:36E 30m asl
Castle Point Astronomy Club http://www.cpac.org.uk

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
Its all over!

My animation has just been updated (which has now moved to
http://www.vegetableplot.com )
According to the 18z GFS run... we could be seeing ( mild ) SWies next
Wednesday.

Same as the day before last. Opposite of yesterday.

Any bets for tomorrow?

I bet Will's wishing he'd waited till his usual Thursday to do his forecast!
Fingers crossed he's right. Don't ask how massive weather systems can change
from HP to LP in 6 hours - I got severely patronised last time I tried.

Dave

On Wed, 21 Jan 2004 23:52:49 -0000, "Brendan DJ Murphy"
wrote:

Its all over!

My animation has just been updated (which has now moved to http://www.vegetableplot.com )
According to the 18z GFS run... we could be seeing ( mild ) SWies next Wednesday.

Same as the day before last. Opposite of yesterday.

Any bets for tomorrow?

Are you implying that there is a pattern forming?

Back to NE tomorrow or stronger SWies?

I was pointing out that while there's been consistency in the GFS and
other models on the initial cold spell (say 2 -3 days of it) after
that, GFS has been swinging wildly between keeping bitter cold and
bringing back the Westerlies. One day the cold stays, the next day it
pushes the Westerlies back in. In other words, it really has no idea
what's going to happen beyond about next Monday/Tuesday.

However, it's now going for a short cold snap then the Westerlies,
second day running. It's backed off on the amount of cold, too
although still suggesting -10C at 850 hPa on the South Coast for a
while. http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.gif

I don't believe that for one second and never have, -5C is by bet. GRF
overdoes the cold in the South time and time again with Northerlies.
Pie in the sky.

--
Dave

On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 15:17:17 +0000, Dave Ludlow wrote in

snip
I don't believe that for one second and never have, -5C is by bet. GRF
overdoes the cold in the South time and time again with Northerlies.
Pie in the sky.

I won't enter the debate about next week as I honestly haven't a clue what
is going on with the GFS model. This did prompt me to search for the 850mb
temps [1] in that (in)famous winter some of us recall :-) so well and came
upon this page at Topkarten. It is the archive of 850mb temps for that
winter and one can scroll through each day using "1 Tag vor" to go to next
day and "1 Tag zurück" to go back a day. It is fascinating to see how warm
it became up at 850mb on some days, despite the continuing surface cold.

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/topkar...ear=1963&typ=2

[1] As others have correctly pointed out the 850mb temperature isn't a
particularly good guide to surface temps in an easterly or anticyclonic
situation.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 22/01/2004 15:53:34 UTC

On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 15:53:34 +0000, Mike Tullett
wrote:

On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 15:17:17 +0000, Dave Ludlow wrote in
m
snip
I don't believe that for one second and never have, -5C is by bet. GRF
overdoes the cold in the South time and time again with Northerlies.
Pie in the sky.

I won't enter the debate about next week as I honestly haven't a clue what
is going on with the GFS model. This did prompt me to search for the 850mb
temps [1] in that (in)famous winter some of us recall :-) so well and came
upon this page at Topkarten. It is the archive of 850mb temps for that
winter and one can scroll through each day using "1 Tag vor" to go to next
day and "1 Tag zurück" to go back a day. It is fascinating to see how warm
it became up at 850mb on some days, despite the continuing surface cold.

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/topkar...ear=1963&typ=2

[1] As others have correctly pointed out the 850mb temperature isn't a
particularly good guide to surface temps in an easterly or anticyclonic
situation.

All true Mike, I was just saying I've noticed that the GFS tends to
overcook the *850 hPa* temperatures for the South, in a cold
Northerly. When the day arrives I bet it's -5 rather than -10 on the S
Coast as GFS predicts.

I realise it *can* be very cold, even snow at around -5C (850hPa) in
some situations but obviously it would be far more likely at -10 (if
it did anything, that is). By the way, 2 days after that anticyclonic
reanalysis you posted, the Easterlies were back Mmmmm....
http://217.160.130.220/wz/pics/archi...0219630131.gif

--
Dave

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 15:17:17 +0000, Dave Ludlow wrote in

snip
I don't believe that for one second and never have, -5C is by bet. GRF
overdoes the cold in the South time and time again with Northerlies.
Pie in the sky.

I won't enter the debate about next week as I honestly haven't a clue what
is going on with the GFS model.

The latest (12z) run only extends to +30hrs! Beyond that is still the 06z
run.

Regarding your comment below on 850 mb temps, the same applied in the later
stages of the Jan 1982 spell.

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/topkar...ear=1982&typ=2

The surface temperature did not rise above freezing and snow melt (in
Southampton) did not commence until Friday morning, ie 24 hrs later than
that chart.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

This did prompt me to search for the 850mb
temps [1] in that (in)famous winter some of us recall :-) so well and came
upon this page at Topkarten. It is the archive of 850mb temps for that
winter and one can scroll through each day using "1 Tag vor" to go to next
day and "1 Tag zurück" to go back a day. It is fascinating to see how
warm
it became up at 850mb on some days, despite the continuing surface cold.


http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/topkar...ear=1963&typ=2

[1] As others have correctly pointed out the 850mb temperature isn't a
particularly good guide to surface temps in an easterly or anticyclonic
situation.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 22/01/2004
15:53:34 UTC

midnight is going for the same. However Met Office and EC still going for
cold so I think it all hinges on the High developing out to the west over
the weekend.

Stan
"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 21 Jan 2004 23:03:56 -0000, "Brendan DJ Murphy"
wrote:

Its all over!

My animation has just been updated (which has now moved to
http://www.vegetableplot.com )
According to the 18z GFS run... we could be seeing ( mild ) SWies next
Wednesday.

Same as the day before last. Opposite of yesterday.

Any bets for tomorrow?

--
Dave

In message , Stanley
Kellett writes
midnight is going for the same. However Met Office and EC still going for
cold so I think it all hinges on the High developing out to the west over
the weekend.

Stan
"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
.. .
On Wed, 21 Jan 2004 23:03:56 -0000, "Brendan DJ Murphy"
wrote:

Its all over!

My animation has just been updated (which has now moved to
http://www.vegetableplot.com )
According to the 18z GFS run... we could be seeing ( mild ) SWies next
Wednesday.

Same as the day before last. Opposite of yesterday.

Any bets for tomorrow?

Something very strange going on. There are two very different sets of
GFS progs around based on the 00z data. One of them, as discussed above,
brings in the SW'lies while the other, at the following URL, keeps cold
N'lies up to next weekend

http://meteocentre.com/models/gfs_lo...s_00_panel.gif

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England