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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Issued 1715 22/01/04

Models are still rock-solid on the lengthy cold spell, confidence still 90%.
Rogue GFS runs now come into line. (One should never ever be fooled by runs from
one model that go against an ensemble signal, particularly if that signal is
dynamically sound and backed up by other model runs).

Detail still elusive but it now looks like the "dire, doom and gloom scenario" I
talked about last night is **more likely** (ie NOT CERTAIN) with the ridge
building further west.

People should be prepared for some severe wintry weather next week, especially
in the north, down the east coast and over all high ground.
Drifting could be bad in northern hilly areas and some places could get cut off
with obvious threats to livestock and the elderly. On Monday there is still a
chance (50%) of a spell of rain in the SW and other low ground in the south with
possible blizzards above 250m and maybe now snow getting into Wales and the
Midlands. This will have to be watched. **IF** this low comes off the cold spell
starts in lowland southern Britain on Tuesday, ie delayed by a day to get the
low out of the way.

No sign of the end of the cold spell but my issued trend remains valid.

Wintry cheers,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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Thanks for the update Will, though I agree with Keith's post earlier.

Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)

Tom wrote in message ...
Thanks for the update Will, though I agree with Keith's post earlier.

Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)


Fair enough, nothing is certain. But this is the most wintry forecast situation
I have seen this winter and maybe even last, IIRC. It has everything going for
it e.g., warm advection north-northwestwards to west of Greenland, a cold
eastern Europe and Scandinavia, a SST pattern that does not favour over strong
Atlantic baroclinicity, solid ensemble support, even the time of year !

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 17:24:28 -0000, "Will"
wrote:

Drifting could be bad in northern hilly areas and some places could get cut off
with obvious threats to livestock and the elderly.

Will, it's the youngerly that concerns me at the moment i.e. my
daughter's new born baby, in a single glazed flat. So while on the one
hand I am still in denial about the doom and gloom scenario (thinking
that's the only way it'll ever happen!), on the other hand I've been
warning her to be prepared for the worst, checking their heating is
sufficient and with auxilary sources available too (before the shops
sell out).

This is why your occasional forecasts of *potential* doom and gloom
are invaluable - they allow precautions to be taken well in advance,
even if, in the end, they sometimes don't come off as anticipated.
Keep up the good work!

Cheers

--
Dave

BTW, Will you really know how to cheer ME up. :-(

Just for that, you're NOT on my Xmas card list this coming year (Ok you
weren't on it last year, but you ain't this year either!).

--
Rob Overfield
Hull; 3m ASL
http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/

"Will" wrote in message
...



Tom wrote in message ...
Thanks for the update Will, though I agree with Keith's post earlier.

Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)


Fair enough, nothing is certain. But this is the most wintry forecast
situation
I have seen this winter and maybe even last, IIRC. It has everything going
for
it e.g., warm advection north-northwestwards to west of Greenland, a cold
eastern Europe and Scandinavia, a SST pattern that does not favour over
strong
Atlantic baroclinicity, solid ensemble support, even the time of year !

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Will wrote:


Drifting could be bad in northern hilly areas and some places could get cut off
with obvious threats to livestock and the elderly. On Monday there is still a
chance (50%) of a spell of rain in the SW and other low ground in the south with
possible blizzards above 250m and maybe now snow getting into Wales and the
Midlands.

Thanks for the update, Will. I may be only at 235m but I will not take
any chances. Fodder ready for the sheep and camera battery on charge.


--
Howard Neil

I must admit my doubts were coming from those GFS runs, however, will
it actually get cold enough down here? Monday looks like rain, with a
possible sleet/snow event on the back of that low. Interesting how
that low that GFS had predicted for a few days is now on the UKMO run.

Maybe someones looking down on me??....

We've been having some building work done and have been open right
through into a new conservatory. Also our heating boiler is not
functioning correctly, so the house is cold. Tomorrow (Friday) the
patio door between the kitchen and conservatory is going in and the
heating is being fixed. Maybe someone 'up there' has been waiting for
me to get back in the warm, as it were, before throwing winter around
:-)

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
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On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 17:47:48 -0000, "Tom"
wrote:

Thanks for the update Will, though I agree with Keith's post earlier.

Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)

On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 18:10:27 -0000, "Will"
wrote:




Tom wrote in message ...
Thanks for the update Will, though I agree with Keith's post earlier.

Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)


Fair enough, nothing is certain. But this is the most wintry forecast situation
I have seen this winter and maybe even last, IIRC. It has everything going for
it e.g., warm advection north-northwestwards to west of Greenland, a cold
eastern Europe and Scandinavia, a SST pattern that does not favour over strong
Atlantic baroclinicity, solid ensemble support, even the time of year !

I guess next week is, statistically, the coldest week of the year.
What date is the actual coldest, I wonder.

JPG


Will.

"Will" wrote here on 22 Jan 2004:

snip
On Monday there is still a chance (50%) of a
spell of rain in the SW and other low ground in the south with
possible blizzards above 250m and maybe now snow getting into
Wales and the Midlands. This will have to be watched. **IF** this
low comes off the cold spell starts in lowland southern Britain on
Tuesday, ie delayed by a day to get the low out of the way.
snip

Thank you for the warning, Will. I may need to travel to Ludlow early
next week, too - and the A4117 over Clee Hill rises to over 370m, so
it may be that I have to delay - that road was temporarily closed by
snow a couple of weeks ago, and this sounds as though it could be
significantly worse.

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