Mike,

Quickly qestion if you care. What are the chances of NI receiving some of
the white stuff this week.

dMac

On Sat, 24 Jan 2004 03:07:28 -0000, news wrote in



Quickly qestion if you care. What are the chances of NI receiving some of
the white stuff this week.

I think the chances are very high indeed from late Sunday onwards, as the
northerly spreads over us. With maximum temperatures of zero or below
being forecast, any snow will easily settle.

Apart from showers in the unstable airflow (very cold air being heated from
below by sea around 9C) there must be a significant threat of polar lows
developing and tracking southwards. These are notoriously difficult to
predict at time spans of greater than 24 hours. As Will said in another
thread, look for cloud clumps, often comma shaped, forming in the vicinity
of Iceland. Their horizontal dimensions are much smaller than a typical
frontal low, and the track then is vital in determining which areas are
affected by any snow.

Here is an example of such a situation - early December 1967, soon after I
arrived here in N.I. I am still amused by one of the photos - trying to
get to work, when over a foot of snow had fallen. I sure wouldn't do it
now:-)

http://www.mtullett.plus.com/December-1967/index.htm

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 24/01/2004 09:16:28 UTC
Temp 3.2C Pressure 1012 rising slowly

On Sat, 24 Jan 2004 09:16:28 +0000, Mike Tullett
wrote:

Apart from showers in the unstable airflow (very cold air being heated from
below by sea around 9C) there must be a significant threat of polar lows
snips
Here is an example of such a situation - early December 1967, soon after I
arrived here in N.I. I am still amused by one of the photos - trying to
get to work, when over a foot of snow had fallen. I sure wouldn't do it
now:-)

http://www.mtullett.plus.com/December-1967/index.htm

That's a beautiful example of what tends to happen in a Northerly as
polar lows (and many disturbances without a closed circulation)
approach the South Coast. A light South Westerly at Bournemouth (I'm
guessing it's the Airport, a few miles inland).

I'm still not convinced that the models aren't overdoing the coldness
for Tuesday, down here. What *we* need is a genuine - and rare -
1969'er

--
Dave
Fareham, Hampshire