================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

24/1/04 2000

This will be my last one until the regular one next thursday.
Hopefully I'll be sending in snowy [WR]s soon.

Still unsure about rain/snow from low in Channel/north France on Sunday/Monday.
GFS very enthusiastic about precipitation in the "cloud head", Met Office much
less so. Heavy precipiation will mean rain turning to snow down to quite low
levels, light precipitation (as per Met Office) will mean no snow below 300m.

Anyway very cold Arctic air set to flood south on Monday to all parts. The air
is racing off Greenland plateau at about 80 knots and hurtles south initially
with little chance of warming, this is what makes it so special.
Detail of snow still uncertain but some places are going to get 30 cms or more
and others are going to get practically nothing. Best I can do is to say that if
you have a maritime fetch not far upwind or are on a slope facing the wind then
you will get snow showers otherwise you will be relying on synoptic features
like polar lows, cold pools or troughs. All depends crucially on wind direction.
Regions *least* likely to get a lot of snow are those sheltered from winds
NW-NE. eg Dorset, Hampshire, central lowlands Scotland. Those regions, however
will still be bitterly cold, but temperatures over snow cover could easily fall
below -12 deg C.
Devon and Cornwall will get snow showers provide the wind stays N-NW :-)

Hint that on thursday things quieten down a bit in the west with more sunshine.
Conversely Kent and East Anglia become threatened with substantial snow on Weds
and Thurs due to wind possibly coming more directly off the North Sea. London
not immune, particularly eastern side.

Finally it is now looking more likely (40%) that warmer air will encroach from
the SW late Friday/early Saturday, as it meets the very cold air wedge near the
surface appreciable snow turning to rain seems likely. The trouble then becomes
how far and how fast it moves north ?

OK good luck everyone in both mild and cold respects, stay safe and look after
yourselves, and above all else *enjoy* whatever you get, we don't get these cold
spells very often nowadays.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks Will!

Looks like Wed/Thurs for south-east then.

Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)

Cheers Will

still no sign of snow for Bournemouth then?

Paul


"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

24/1/04 2000

This will be my last one until the regular one next thursday.
Hopefully I'll be sending in snowy [WR]s soon.

Still unsure about rain/snow from low in Channel/north France on
Sunday/Monday.
GFS very enthusiastic about precipitation in the "cloud head", Met Office
much
less so. Heavy precipiation will mean rain turning to snow down to quite
low
levels, light precipitation (as per Met Office) will mean no snow below
300m.

Anyway very cold Arctic air set to flood south on Monday to all parts. The
air
is racing off Greenland plateau at about 80 knots and hurtles south
initially
with little chance of warming, this is what makes it so special.
Detail of snow still uncertain but some places are going to get 30 cms or
more
and others are going to get practically nothing. Best I can do is to say
that if
you have a maritime fetch not far upwind or are on a slope facing the wind
then
you will get snow showers otherwise you will be relying on synoptic
features
like polar lows, cold pools or troughs. All depends crucially on wind
direction.
Regions *least* likely to get a lot of snow are those sheltered from winds
NW-NE. eg Dorset, Hampshire, central lowlands Scotland. Those regions,
however
will still be bitterly cold, but temperatures over snow cover could easily
fall
below -12 deg C.
Devon and Cornwall will get snow showers provide the wind stays N-NW :-)

Hint that on thursday things quieten down a bit in the west with more
sunshine.
Conversely Kent and East Anglia become threatened with substantial snow on
Weds
and Thurs due to wind possibly coming more directly off the North Sea.
London
not immune, particularly eastern side.

Finally it is now looking more likely (40%) that warmer air will encroach
from
the SW late Friday/early Saturday, as it meets the very cold air wedge
near the
surface appreciable snow turning to rain seems likely. The trouble then
becomes
how far and how fast it moves north ?

OK good luck everyone in both mild and cold respects, stay safe and look
after
yourselves, and above all else *enjoy* whatever you get, we don't get
these cold
spells very often nowadays.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

I dont reckon so.
So far as Bournemouth is concerned, it will just be a tad nippy for a few
days before the westerlies come back. No snow for us, we almost never get
snow down here under that set-up.

Jim, Bournemouth.

"Paul S" wrote in message
...
Cheers Will

still no sign of snow for Bournemouth then?

Paul


"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

24/1/04 2000

This will be my last one until the regular one next thursday.
Hopefully I'll be sending in snowy [WR]s soon.

Still unsure about rain/snow from low in Channel/north France on
Sunday/Monday.
GFS very enthusiastic about precipitation in the "cloud head", Met
Office
much
less so. Heavy precipiation will mean rain turning to snow down to quite
low
levels, light precipitation (as per Met Office) will mean no snow below
300m.

Anyway very cold Arctic air set to flood south on Monday to all parts.
The
air
is racing off Greenland plateau at about 80 knots and hurtles south
initially
with little chance of warming, this is what makes it so special.
Detail of snow still uncertain but some places are going to get 30 cms
or
more
and others are going to get practically nothing. Best I can do is to say
that if
you have a maritime fetch not far upwind or are on a slope facing the
wind
then
you will get snow showers otherwise you will be relying on synoptic
features
like polar lows, cold pools or troughs. All depends crucially on wind
direction.
Regions *least* likely to get a lot of snow are those sheltered from
winds
NW-NE. eg Dorset, Hampshire, central lowlands Scotland. Those regions,
however
will still be bitterly cold, but temperatures over snow cover could
easily
fall
below -12 deg C.
Devon and Cornwall will get snow showers provide the wind stays N-NW :-)

Hint that on thursday things quieten down a bit in the west with more
sunshine.
Conversely Kent and East Anglia become threatened with substantial snow
on
Weds
and Thurs due to wind possibly coming more directly off the North Sea.
London
not immune, particularly eastern side.

Finally it is now looking more likely (40%) that warmer air will
encroach
from
the SW late Friday/early Saturday, as it meets the very cold air wedge
near the
surface appreciable snow turning to rain seems likely. The trouble then
becomes
how far and how fast it moves north ?

OK good luck everyone in both mild and cold respects, stay safe and look
after
yourselves, and above all else *enjoy* whatever you get, we don't get
these cold
spells very often nowadays.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

oh well, roll on Spring.


"Jim Smith" wrote in message
...
I dont reckon so.
So far as Bournemouth is concerned, it will just be a tad nippy for a few
days before the westerlies come back. No snow for us, we almost never get
snow down here under that set-up.

Jim, Bournemouth.

"Paul S" wrote in message
...
Cheers Will

still no sign of snow for Bournemouth then?

Paul


"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

24/1/04 2000

This will be my last one until the regular one next thursday.
Hopefully I'll be sending in snowy [WR]s soon.

Still unsure about rain/snow from low in Channel/north France on
Sunday/Monday.
GFS very enthusiastic about precipitation in the "cloud head", Met
Office
much
less so. Heavy precipiation will mean rain turning to snow down to
quite
low
levels, light precipitation (as per Met Office) will mean no snow
below
300m.

Anyway very cold Arctic air set to flood south on Monday to all parts.
The
air
is racing off Greenland plateau at about 80 knots and hurtles south
initially
with little chance of warming, this is what makes it so special.
Detail of snow still uncertain but some places are going to get 30 cms
or
more
and others are going to get practically nothing. Best I can do is to
say
that if
you have a maritime fetch not far upwind or are on a slope facing the
wind
then
you will get snow showers otherwise you will be relying on synoptic
features
like polar lows, cold pools or troughs. All depends crucially on wind
direction.
Regions *least* likely to get a lot of snow are those sheltered from
winds
NW-NE. eg Dorset, Hampshire, central lowlands Scotland. Those regions,
however
will still be bitterly cold, but temperatures over snow cover could
easily
fall
below -12 deg C.
Devon and Cornwall will get snow showers provide the wind stays N-NW
:-)

Hint that on thursday things quieten down a bit in the west with more
sunshine.
Conversely Kent and East Anglia become threatened with substantial
snow
on
Weds
and Thurs due to wind possibly coming more directly off the North Sea.
London
not immune, particularly eastern side.

Finally it is now looking more likely (40%) that warmer air will
encroach
from
the SW late Friday/early Saturday, as it meets the very cold air wedge
near the
surface appreciable snow turning to rain seems likely. The trouble
then
becomes
how far and how fast it moves north ?

OK good luck everyone in both mild and cold respects, stay safe and
look
after
yourselves, and above all else *enjoy* whatever you get, we don't get
these cold
spells very often nowadays.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

On Sat, 24 Jan 2004 21:19:19 -0000, "Jim Smith"
wrote:

I dont reckon so.
So far as Bournemouth is concerned, it will just be a tad nippy for a few
days before the westerlies come back. No snow for us, we almost never get
snow down here under that set-up.

For the last few runs, GFS has (as expected) been backing off on the
temperatures predicted down here (at 850hPa anyway). Not a -10C to be
seen on any of the week's 6 hourly runs now; mostly -5s or a bit
below. Here's the coldest... maybe that little cold pool over Wales
will "do it for us!"
http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn722.gif

I'll be happy to get one snowfall that lasts for 24 hours before it
melts. That would be one more than in recent Winters. I've dug my
gloves out, though!

--
Dave
Fareham Hampshire.

I
For the last few runs, GFS has (as expected) been backing off on the
temperatures predicted down here (at 850hPa anyway). Not a -10C to be
seen on any of the week's 6 hourly runs now; mostly -5s or a bit
below. Here's the coldest... maybe that little cold pool over Wales
will "do it for us!"
http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn722.gif

Thanks Dave! Kind of the GFS to give us Welsh folk a cold pool of our
own - sure beats the wife's water feature!

James
--
James Brown

In message , Will
writes

================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

24/1/04 2000

This will be my last one until the regular one next thursday.
Hopefully I'll be sending in snowy [WR]s soon.

Still unsure about rain/snow from low in Channel/north France on Sunday/Monday.
GFS very enthusiastic about precipitation in the "cloud head", Met Office much
less so. Heavy precipiation will mean rain turning to snow down to quite low
levels, light precipitation (as per Met Office) will mean no snow below 300m.


As you say - the GFS is very enthusiastic about precipitation on the
north side of the low. The 12z meteogram for this location predicts a
total of 33 mm in the 48 hours from Sunday evening to Tuesday evening.
It has the 2m temperature between 2c and 4c during that period and the
850mb temp between -4c and
-8c. That would make it very marginal for snow. That precipitation
total is a lot higher than earlier runs so it'll be interesting to see
if it persists with it over the next few runs.

An interesting week ahead

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

Devon and Cornwall will get snow showers provide the wind stays N-NW :-)


Here in the far SW we may see snow fall, but if it settles it will be the
first time snow has settled in Penzance on a N-NW wind for 10 years.

Snow has only covered the ground here once in the last 6 years (9/01/03) and
that was, as always seems to be the case now, on an east wind. The sea
temperatures off west Cornwall are just too high these days. (Currently
still 10-11 degrees) for real snow on a NW. We just get a mixture of soft
hail and sleety snow.

Still, I live in hope..


Graham
Penzance
..

"Will" wrote in message
...
The trouble then becomes
how far and how fast it moves north ?


Hi, Will,

Thaws moving up from the south are terrible for hill sites in NE England
as I posted yesterday. The snow which we will most likely have from the
forecast cold snap should be clean, dry and powdery. This snow is not
too bad to drive on, apart from drifting and reduced visibility. It is
also easy to shovel.

The snow which will come from a northward moving thaw with SE winds will
be heavy, wet, slippery and dirty with hill fog and slow thaw temps of
0C to 1C. YUK ):0(

A thaw coming in from SW, NW or W is quick and relatively painless.

ATB,

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.freeserve.com/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk


---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.566 / Virus Database: 357 - Release Date: 22/01/04