Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Saturday 31st January 2004
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm961.html
Low pressure (965mb) lies to the west of the UK in the Atlantic, with
a secondary low (985mb) to the Northeast of Scotland. High pressure
(1030mb) lies over the central Med. Winds across the country are
moderate to fresh south/southwesterlies. Most areas will see rain
moving across from the southwest. Temperatures will be close to
normal. Beyond this conditions are generally mild and very unsettled.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
Low pressure (965mb) lies to the west of the UK in the Atlantic, with
a secondary low (970mb) over Ireland. High pressure (1030mb) lies over
the Central and Eastern Med. Winds across the country are mostly fresh
to strong, east/southeasterlies in the north, west/southwesterlies in
the south. Most parts will see wet and windy weather, perhaps snow in
the far north. 850hpa temperatures range from -6C in the north to +5C
in the southeast. Forecast 2m temperatures range from -1C in central
Scotland to +11C in the south. Beyond this conditions are mostly mild
and unsettled in all parts.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...271200_096.gif
Not available at time of writing.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp961.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp962.html
Low pressure (970mb) lies to the west of the UK in the Atlantic. High
pressure (1025mb) lies over the Central and Eastern Med. Winds across
the country are mostly moderate southerlies. Many parts will see rain
moving in from the southwest, with perhaps some snow in the north for
a time. 850hpa temperatures range from -7C in the northeast to +3C in
the far southwest. Temperatures will be close to or just below normal.
Beyond this conditions are mostly mild and very unsettled.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
Low pressure (two centres of 970mb) lies to the west of the UK out in
the Atlantic. High pressure (1025mb) lies over the Central and Eastern
Med. Winds across the country are moderate to fresh southeasterlies,
veering southwesterly. Most areas will see rain moving in from the
south, with perhaps some snow on the leading edge. 850hpa temperatures
range from -7C in the north to +6C in the south. Temperatures will be
close to or just above normal in most parts, colder in the north.
Beyond this conditions are mostly unsettled and mild.

Canadian – T+72 hours for FRIDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
Low pressure (987mb) lies close to the northeast of Scotland, with
another low (958mb) to the west of the UK in the Atlantic. Winds
across the country are mainly light to moderate west/northwesterlies.
Many areas will see a mix of sunshine and a few wintry showers,
especially in the north and east. Temperatures will be close to or
just below normal.

Summary:
A return to milder weather seems probable from Friday onwards, leading
to an unsettled weekend and early part of next week with very wet and
windy weather at times for all parts.

Summary:
A return to milder weather seems probable from Friday onwards, leading
to an unsettled weekend and early part of next week with very wet and
windy weather at times for all parts.



Right

Time to start some Spring sowing in the greenhouse then!




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"Trevor Appleton" trevor@nospamweatherdot4dinternetdocodotuk wrote in
message ...


Summary:
A return to milder weather seems probable from Friday onwards, leading
to an unsettled weekend and early part of next week with very wet and
windy weather at times for all parts.



Right

Time to start some Spring sowing in the greenhouse then!



Why is it that charts, which were in agreement for severe weather less than
a week ago, have turned out incorrect whilst the above are more than likely
to be correct?!

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in message news:bv6h35
Why is it that charts, which were in agreement for severe weather less than
a week ago, have turned out incorrect whilst the above are more than
likely
to be correct?!

Victor



Basically because the charts have seen more of the sort of weather we are
likely to get next week, than that we *could* have got this week. Something
like that anyway. They like most what they know best

On Tue, 27 Jan 2004 20:18:48 -0000, Victor West wrote in


Why is it that charts, which were in agreement for severe weather less than
a week ago, have turned out incorrect whilst the above are more than likely
to be correct?!

My view on those charts is they were pretty accurate in general synoptic
developments. Any errors were more in their interpretation and just how
cold it would be - and just how much snow there would be. The fine detail
just isn't possible at the time scale.

The forecasts for next week are pointing to unsettled and milder weather -
but how many of us are going through them with a fine tooth comb, as many
were this time last week. We just accept there will be a change at the
weekend without any real detail - such as was wanted for this week.

In my view the models have done a good job at setting the scene for this
week from a long time ago. Mind you we have learned a new law - Dave
Ludlow's - look at the 850 mb temps on the GFS model, for the south of
England and add on about 4C:-)

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 27/01/2004 20:42:04 UTC