I think I have detected an increasing trend in Met Office Weather forecasts
over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers. Not only in general
forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot, cold, windy etc as they
say, but also in shipping and inshore forecasts. A number of times over the
last year I have not sailed because of warnings of Gales or F6s and above
which have not materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day out.
I am now beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one day
the forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout 'We
told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the background
advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than the most likely,
weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism. (a la M. Fish -'There
won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?

Duncan Heenan wrote:
I think I have detected an increasing trend in Met Office Weather
forecasts over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers.
Not only in general forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot,
cold, windy etc as they say, but also in shipping and inshore
forecasts. A number of times over the last year I have not sailed
because of warnings of Gales or F6s and above which have not
materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day out. I am now
beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one day the
forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout
'We told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the
background advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than
the most likely, weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism.
(a la M. Fish -'There won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?

Well if you are listening to the road traffic reports as I am at the moment in Northants, I'd probably say that a severe warning was not enough for most of the 'drivers' out there - reports of multiple accidents and closures and that's WITH gritted roads!

--
cupra (remove nospam please to mail)

Typical of this country, unable to cope with a tiny crisis, god knows what
would happen if we had a big one!

Pete W

" cupra" wrote in message
...
Duncan Heenan wrote:
I think I have detected an increasing trend in Met Office Weather
forecasts over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers.
Not only in general forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot,
cold, windy etc as they say, but also in shipping and inshore
forecasts. A number of times over the last year I have not sailed
because of warnings of Gales or F6s and above which have not
materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day out. I am now
beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one day the
forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout
'We told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the
background advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than
the most likely, weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism.
(a la M. Fish -'There won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?

Well if you are listening to the road traffic reports as I am at the moment
in Northants, I'd probably say that a severe warning was not enough for most
of the 'drivers' out there - reports of multiple accidents and closures and
that's WITH gritted roads!

--
cupra (remove nospam please to mail)

"martin" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 28 Jan 2004 16:46:41 -0000, Pete W wrote:

Typical of this country, unable to cope with a tiny crisis, god knows
what
would happen if we had a big one!

So why do you think the problem is unique to Britain?
--
Martin

its not.

I sort of share your sentaments, there does seem to be a lot more shouting
about the possibilities of severe weather, but a lot of this is hype whipped
up by the media rather than serious forecasting from Met O.

I can confirm that this newsgroup certainly was read when I was shackled to
the Met O to earn my (very)meagre crust.

ISIII
"Duncan Heenan" wrote in message
...
I think I have detected an increasing trend in Met Office Weather
forecasts
over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers. Not only in
general
forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot, cold, windy etc as they
say, but also in shipping and inshore forecasts. A number of times over
the
last year I have not sailed because of warnings of Gales or F6s and above
which have not materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day
out.
I am now beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one day
the forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout 'We
told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the background
advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than the most likely,
weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism. (a la M. Fish -'There
won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?

"martin" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 28 Jan 2004 18:12:38 +0100, martin wrote:

On Wed, 28 Jan 2004 16:34:15 -0000, "Duncan Heenan"
wrote:

I think I have detected an increasing trend in Met Office Weather
forecasts
over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers. Not only in
general
forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot, cold, windy etc as
they
say, but also in shipping and inshore forecasts. A number of times over
the
last year I have not sailed because of warnings of Gales or F6s and
above
which have not materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day
out.
I am now beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one
day
the forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout
'We
told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the background
advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than the most
likely,
weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism. (a la M.
Fish -'There
won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?

Martin Stubbs http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/tempusfugit/ +
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/tempus...rine/gmdss.htm .

There's also Frank Singleton http://www.franksingleton.clara.net

I think both are retired now.

If you keep careful records of forecast against the actual weather and
demonstrate a bias somebody in the Met Office will listen to you.
I suspect you are wrong and that you are noticing local differences
rather than general ones, after all the forecasts are for large areas.
In the West of the Netherlands, where I am located, force 7 winds,
thunderstorms and snow were forecast for today. We had a near gale a
thunder storm and torrential rain, but no snow, not even frost. Other
parts of the West of the Netherlands have had snow.

You can of course download the synoptic s and make your own forecasts.
There's plenty of weather info on internet.

I looked out of the window after posting that and found that there
are now several inches of snow here.
--
Martin


Nothing here on the Isle of Wight yet - but we always have good weather!

Now they're moving to Exeter at least they'll be able to look out of the
window at my Devon weather and see what's coming in the next hour.

Shame there's a big hill (Haldon) in the way just tio the west of Exeter so
they can't see Dartmoor.

If you can see dartmoor from here, it's about to rain.
If you can't see dartmoor, it is raining.

Actually, at the moment its both dark and raining. Does that prove my point?

Norman



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Duncan Heenan wrote:

I think I have detected an increasing trend in Met Office Weather forecasts
over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers. Not only in general
forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot, cold, windy etc as they
say, but also in shipping and inshore forecasts. A number of times over the
last year I have not sailed because of warnings of Gales or F6s and above
which have not materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day out.
I am now beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one day
the forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout 'We
told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the background
advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than the most likely,
weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism. (a la M. Fish -'There
won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?

My impression of sailing in NW Scotland is that the main shipping forecasts
are reasonable, but of course they cover a large area. Weather can be quite
local in this region.

The inshore forecast (Malin Hd to Cape Wrath and 12 miles offshore) does seem
to be a bit pessimistic.

I listen to both, also the land forecasts, sketch a synoptic chart and make up
my mind as to what to do.

If I am near Ireland the forecasts from MetEirean seem to be a bit more
realistic, and they are updated every 6 hours.

Technically Mr Fish's comment there wont be a hurricane was true, it was not
a hurricane as the disturbance did not originate in the tropics. Hurricane
force winds yes were observed ie F12.

The Met office forecasts have grown in accuracy in the last decades. A one
day forecast given in 1960 is now as accurate as a 3day forecast in 2004.
Inshore water forecasts are diccicult to judge especially in anticyclonic
conditions when sea breezes form etc. Frontal features do however
complicate the matter but forecasts are improving!!!

James Eberlein

Department of Meteorology

University of Reading

"spu02je" wrote in message
...
Technically Mr Fish's comment there wont be a hurricane was true, it was
not
a hurricane as the disturbance did not originate in the tropics.
Hurricane
force winds yes were observed ie F12.

The Met office forecasts have grown in accuracy in the last decades. A
one
day forecast given in 1960 is now as accurate as a 3day forecast in 2004.
Inshore water forecasts are diccicult to judge especially in anticyclonic
conditions when sea breezes form etc. Frontal features do however
complicate the matter but forecasts are improving!!!

James Eberlein

Department of Meteorology

University of Reading


James,

You sound just like my Fiancee, you meterologists are all the same!!

Cheers

Simon