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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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SUNDAY: ITS ALL IN THE FORC(ING)
Ok here we go. The changes in the pattern in central Asia, where for the last month and a ridge has sat and this meant trofs coming into Europe were forced to slow down and dig, and most of them dug into eastern and central Europe, has changed and this is allowing all the systems to march through in a more progressive fashion. But they are coming over the mean ridge which is now back in western Europe, supported by the mean ridge off the southeast coast of the United States, which is there because a trof over the southwest part of the United States, which is there because of the southern jet induced by the negative SOI that started Dec 29 , and led to the active wet pattern in the states the period Jan 14-now, forced southern stream energy into that part of North America. With the flipping of the SOI to positive and the slowing of systems, amplification is starting anew in the Pacific east of the dateline and this is what to watch for the results downstream in europe, but that is 7-10 days away. Now you may have noticed the lack of extensive posts last week and that is because I am trying to sort all this out. There is an old saying, which I dont heed enough, tis better to shut your mouth and be thought stupid, then to open it and remove all doubt. In any case, when wrong, or confused, or feel like I am in a tennis match, and I am the ball, I go back to studying. So here is what I have come up with. The break down of the ridge in Europe will start next week, if not before. One way or the other, the changes in the gulf of Alaska will force the hand of the ridge in the southwest atlantic, which will then beatdown the ridge in Europe. However that could start as early as this weekend. How so. well the lynchpin is in the southwest United States where the upper feature there is forecasted to simply stay there. Should it kick out, then it starts the destruction of the southwest atlantic ridge sooner, rather than later, and the house of cards falls here. The problem is no modelling is showing that, even though I believe that is what will happen. The way the pattern will go is that some storm will come crashing east through the ridge and knock it down. The ridge will split with a center popping in the means over greenland and back the trof will come. Whether it starts this weekend ( valentines day) or next week to me is the big question. Alot depends on the upstream forcing. Right now we see a stand off between what is coming from the west and what is established over the atlantic. So in a nutshell, this is why I have been quiet, trying to figure all this out. Now we will see if the work pays off. Ciao for now **** THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM BELOW WEDNESDAY SUNDAY: ITS ALL IN THE FORC(ING) Ok here we go. The changes in the pattern in central Asia, where for the last month and a ridge has sat and this meant trofs coming into Europe were forced to slow down and dig, and most of them dug into eastern and central Europe, has changed and this is allowing all the systems to march through in a more progressive fashion. But they are coming over the mean ridge which is now back in western Europe, supported by the mean ridge off the southeast coast of the United States, which is there because a trof over the southwest part of the United States, which is there because of the southern jet induced by the negative SOI that started Dec 29 , and led to the active wet pattern in the states the period Jan 14-now, forced southern stream energy into that part of North America. With the flipping of the SOI to positive and the slowing of systems, amplification is starting anew in the Pacific east of the dateline and this is what to watch for the results downstream in europe, but that is 7-10 days away. Now you may have noticed the lack of extensive posts last week and that is because I am trying to sort all this out. There is an old saying, which I dont heed enough, tis better to shut your mouth and be thought stupid, then to open it and remove all doubt. In any case, when wrong, or confused, or feel like I am in a tennis match, and I am the ball, I go back to studying. So here is what I have come up with. The break down of the ridge in Europe will start next week, if not before. One way or the other, the changes in the gulf of Alaska will force the hand of the ridge in the southwest atlantic, which will then beatdown the ridge in Europe. However that could start as early as this weekend. How so. well the lynchpin is in the southwest United States where the upper feature there is forecasted to simply stay there. Should it kick out, then it starts the destruction of the southwest atlantic ridge sooner, rather than later, and the house of cards falls here. The problem is no modelling is showing that, even though I believe that is what will happen. The way the pattern will go is that some storm will come crashing east through the ridge and knock it down. The ridge will split with a center popping in the means over greenland and back the trof will come. Whether it starts this weekend ( valentines day) or next week to me is the big question. Alot depends on the upstream forcing. Right now we see a stand off between what is coming from the west and what is established over the atlantic. So in a nutshell, this is why I have been quiet, trying to figure all this out. Now we will see if the work pays off. Ciao for now **** THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM BELOW WEDNESDAY SUNDAY: ITS ALL IN THE FORC(ING) Ok here we go. The changes in the pattern in central Asia, where for the last month and a ridge has sat and this meant trofs coming into Europe were forced to slow down and dig, and most of them dug into eastern and central Europe, has changed and this is allowing all the systems to march through in a more progressive fashion. But they are coming over the mean ridge which is now back in western Europe, supported by the mean ridge off the southeast coast of the United States, which is there because a trof over the southwest part of the United States, which is there because of the southern jet induced by the negative SOI that started Dec 29 , and led to the active wet pattern in the states the period Jan 14-now, forced southern stream energy into that part of North America. With the flipping of the SOI to positive and the slowing of systems, amplification is starting anew in the Pacific east of the dateline and this is what to watch for the results downstream in europe, but that is 7-10 days away. Now you may have noticed the lack of extensive posts last week and that is because I am trying to sort all this out. There is an old saying, which I dont heed enough, tis better to shut your mouth and be thought stupid, then to open it and remove all doubt. In any case, when wrong, or confused, or feel like I am in a tennis match, and I am the ball, I go back to studying. So here is what I have come up with. The break down of the ridge in Europe will start next week, if not before. One way or the other, the changes in the gulf of Alaska will force the hand of the ridge in the southwest atlantic, which will then beatdown the ridge in Europe. However that could start as early as this weekend. How so. well the lynchpin is in the southwest United States where the upper feature there is forecasted to simply stay there. Should it kick out, then it starts the destruction of the southwest atlantic ridge sooner, rather than later, and the house of cards falls here. The problem is no modelling is showing that, even though I believe that is what will happen. The way the pattern will go is that some storm will come crashing east through the ridge and knock it down. The ridge will split with a center popping in the means over greenland and back the trof will come. Whether it starts this weekend ( valentines day) or next week to me is the big question. Alot depends on the upstream forcing. Right now we see a stand off between what is coming from the west and what is established over the atlantic. So in a nutshell, this is why I have been quiet, trying to figure all this out. Now we will see if the work pays off. Ciao for now **** THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM BELOW WEDNESDAY v |
#2
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"Ron Button" wrote in message ...
SUNDAY: ITS ALL IN THE FORC(ING) Ok here we go. The changes in the pattern in central Asia, where for the last month and a ridge has sat and this meant trofs coming into Europe were forced to slow down and dig, and most of them dug into eastern and central Europe, has changed and this is allowing all the systems to march through in a more progressive fashion. But they are coming over the mean ridge which is now back in western Europe, supported by the mean ridge off the southeast coast of the United States, which is there because a trof over the southwest part of the United States, which is there because of the southern jet induced by the negative SOI that started Dec 29 , and led to the active wet pattern in the states the period Jan 14-now, forced southern stream energy into that part of North America. With the flipping of the SOI to positive and the slowing of systems, amplification is starting anew in the Pacific east of the dateline and this is what to watch for the results downstream in europe, but that is 7-10 days away. Now you may have noticed the lack of extensive posts last week and that is because I am trying to sort all this out. There is an old saying, which I dont heed enough, tis better to shut your mouth and be thought stupid, then to open it and remove all doubt. In any case, when wrong, or confused, or feel like I am in a tennis match, and I am the ball, I go back to studying. So here is what I have come up with. The break down of the ridge in Europe will start next week, if not before. One way or the other, the changes in the gulf of Alaska will force the hand of the ridge in the southwest atlantic, which will then beatdown the ridge in Europe. However that could start as early as this weekend. How so. well the lynchpin is in the southwest United States where the upper feature there is forecasted to simply stay there. Should it kick out, then it starts the destruction of the southwest atlantic ridge sooner, rather than later, and the house of cards falls here. The problem is no modelling is showing that, even though I believe that is what will happen. The way the pattern will go is that some storm will come crashing east through the ridge and knock it down. The ridge will split with a center popping in the means over greenland and back the trof will come. Whether it starts this weekend ( valentines day) or next week to me is the big question. Alot depends on the upstream forcing. Right now we see a stand off between what is coming from the west and what is established over the atlantic. So in a nutshell, this is why I have been quiet, trying to figure all this out. Now we will see if the work pays off. Ciao for now **** THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM BELOW WEDNESDAY SUNDAY: ITS ALL IN THE FORC(ING) Ok here we go. The changes in the pattern in central Asia, where for the last month and a ridge has sat and this meant trofs coming into Europe were forced to slow down and dig, and most of them dug into eastern and central Europe, has changed and this is allowing all the systems to march through in a more progressive fashion. But they are coming over the mean ridge which is now back in western Europe, supported by the mean ridge off the southeast coast of the United States, which is there because a trof over the southwest part of the United States, which is there because of the southern jet induced by the negative SOI that started Dec 29 , and led to the active wet pattern in the states the period Jan 14-now, forced southern stream energy into that part of North America. With the flipping of the SOI to positive and the slowing of systems, amplification is starting anew in the Pacific east of the dateline and this is what to watch for the results downstream in europe, but that is 7-10 days away. Now you may have noticed the lack of extensive posts last week and that is because I am trying to sort all this out. There is an old saying, which I dont heed enough, tis better to shut your mouth and be thought stupid, then to open it and remove all doubt. In any case, when wrong, or confused, or feel like I am in a tennis match, and I am the ball, I go back to studying. So here is what I have come up with. The break down of the ridge in Europe will start next week, if not before. One way or the other, the changes in the gulf of Alaska will force the hand of the ridge in the southwest atlantic, which will then beatdown the ridge in Europe. However that could start as early as this weekend. How so. well the lynchpin is in the southwest United States where the upper feature there is forecasted to simply stay there. Should it kick out, then it starts the destruction of the southwest atlantic ridge sooner, rather than later, and the house of cards falls here. The problem is no modelling is showing that, even though I believe that is what will happen. The way the pattern will go is that some storm will come crashing east through the ridge and knock it down. The ridge will split with a center popping in the means over greenland and back the trof will come. Whether it starts this weekend ( valentines day) or next week to me is the big question. Alot depends on the upstream forcing. Right now we see a stand off between what is coming from the west and what is established over the atlantic. So in a nutshell, this is why I have been quiet, trying to figure all this out. Now we will see if the work pays off. Ciao for now **** THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM BELOW WEDNESDAY SUNDAY: ITS ALL IN THE FORC(ING) Ok here we go. The changes in the pattern in central Asia, where for the last month and a ridge has sat and this meant trofs coming into Europe were forced to slow down and dig, and most of them dug into eastern and central Europe, has changed and this is allowing all the systems to march through in a more progressive fashion. But they are coming over the mean ridge which is now back in western Europe, supported by the mean ridge off the southeast coast of the United States, which is there because a trof over the southwest part of the United States, which is there because of the southern jet induced by the negative SOI that started Dec 29 , and led to the active wet pattern in the states the period Jan 14-now, forced southern stream energy into that part of North America. With the flipping of the SOI to positive and the slowing of systems, amplification is starting anew in the Pacific east of the dateline and this is what to watch for the results downstream in europe, but that is 7-10 days away. Now you may have noticed the lack of extensive posts last week and that is because I am trying to sort all this out. There is an old saying, which I dont heed enough, tis better to shut your mouth and be thought stupid, then to open it and remove all doubt. In any case, when wrong, or confused, or feel like I am in a tennis match, and I am the ball, I go back to studying. So here is what I have come up with. The break down of the ridge in Europe will start next week, if not before. One way or the other, the changes in the gulf of Alaska will force the hand of the ridge in the southwest atlantic, which will then beatdown the ridge in Europe. However that could start as early as this weekend. How so. well the lynchpin is in the southwest United States where the upper feature there is forecasted to simply stay there. Should it kick out, then it starts the destruction of the southwest atlantic ridge sooner, rather than later, and the house of cards falls here. The problem is no modelling is showing that, even though I believe that is what will happen. The way the pattern will go is that some storm will come crashing east through the ridge and knock it down. The ridge will split with a center popping in the means over greenland and back the trof will come. Whether it starts this weekend ( valentines day) or next week to me is the big question. Alot depends on the upstream forcing. Right now we see a stand off between what is coming from the west and what is established over the atlantic. So in a nutshell, this is why I have been quiet, trying to figure all this out. Now we will see if the work pays off. Ciao for now **** THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM BELOW WEDNESDAY v Damn my biscuits - I thought he might say that. Whatever happens, at least it will mean less wind this weekend. Not that I ever did before, mind you (fart excessively, that is) !! And what is wrong with a plate of beans for breakfast anyway ? Joe ******* is a confusing one - right or wrong ? He needs to learn how to spell trof as well....poor chap. Well, bye ! |
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