There has been much discussion regarding the accuracy of the forecast for
the 26th w.r.t. rainfall
amounts.

The Met. Office did warn of the likelihood of heavy rain in the south of the
country several days in
advance. However, they also stated that there was a great deal of
uncertainty. Much depending on the
track of the 'Low'

IMHO it was quite a good forecast for yesterday in my area (Tilehurst).

After a fair night, cloud soon thickened and there was intermittent light
rain from 0930 UTC.

From 1400 to 2100 UTC rain was continuous and at times moderate to heavy.

The total rainfall read at 2100UTC was 9.7mm. Intermittent rain continued
until 0500 UTC on
the 27th, giving a further 0.9mm.

Comments invited.

Eric Belton

Fair enough and I agree there was uncertaintity attributed to the forecast,
but it's not a lot of rain really, especially after the long dry spells in
the SE. Also did anywhere get the heavy and prolonged thundery rain today?
We certainly didn't, in fact it was a fabulous warm, clear sunny afternoon.
But, what the hell, it doesn't really matter in the wider context!

Dave. S.Essex.
"Eric Belton" wrote in message
...
There has been much discussion regarding the accuracy of the forecast for
the 26th w.r.t. rainfall
amounts.

The Met. Office did warn of the likelihood of heavy rain in the south of
the
country several days in
advance. However, they also stated that there was a great deal of
uncertainty. Much depending on the
track of the 'Low'

IMHO it was quite a good forecast for yesterday in my area (Tilehurst).

After a fair night, cloud soon thickened and there was intermittent light
rain from 0930 UTC.

From 1400 to 2100 UTC rain was continuous and at times moderate to heavy.

The total rainfall read at 2100UTC was 9.7mm. Intermittent rain continued
until 0500 UTC on
the 27th, giving a further 0.9mm.

Comments invited.

Eric Belton

Eric,

My post 'Todays Low' issued on Sat morning agrees. I Think the MetO did a
good job in providing the uncertainty and in the end it was a good
forecast - I just wish there was more probability in the forecasts in
general - it would help explain sometimes when the preception was that a
forecast was 'wrong'

Phil

It certainly came good here Eric. Showers from 0650Z becoming
continuous rain from 0930Z which lasted for about 12 hours with some
moderate bursts.

Around 3/4 of an inch through that period on the empty flower pot scale.
( I have developed individual compensatory algortihms for the conic
section of each flower pot and take an average across the garden
allowing for evaporation ).

Regards,
Ivan
_____________________________________
Ivan Allen Dorchester Dorset 210 ft amsl