================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 29/02/04 to Saturday 06/03/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 26/02/04 2000 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate till Tuesday but falls to low afterwards. Sunday looks
like remaining very cold with moderate to severe frosts in Scotland persisting
all day over snow cover. However, the very cold northerly will be replaced by
rising pressure in Scotland and northern Ireland so only a scattering of snow
showers here at first. England and Wales will see more snow showers during the
day, especially in the southeast where some could be heavy and prolonged with
perhaps drifting in the fresh to strong northeast winds associated with a low in
the southern North Sea. High ground in the SW could also have a few heavy snow
showers.

On Monday any snow in the SE should die out and all parts will become dry and
sunny but overnight freezing fog may linger and it will remain very cold with
severe frosts over deep snow cover.

Tuesday again fine and dry but with freezing fog and severe frost perhaps
persisting all day in eastern areas.

After Tuesday, eastern parts have a very good chance of staying dry but very
cold with more fog and frost at night, but western parts of England, Wales,
northern Ireland and western Scotland will see Atlantic fronts encroach from the
west. Very unsure of timing and how far east fronts will push, but there is a
50% chance of blizzards developing over all high ground as the milder air and
eventually rain tries to push east.

On Saturday 30% chance of pressure building over Scandinavia re-introducing a
bitterly cold northeasterly airflow bringing snow to the SE.
Trend for the following week beginning 7th March at very low confidence is for
strengthening east or northeast winds to bring a return to very cold weather and
snow to many parts possibly causing major problems as pressure builds rapidly
over Scandinavia.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from Met. Office Dartmoor.

Will.
--
Chief Forecaster USW

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks Will, hope you got some good snow today - sure you must have done!
Dave
"Will" wrote in message
...
================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 29/02/04 to Saturday 06/03/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 26/02/04 2000 UK local time This summary is
based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP
ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate till Tuesday but falls to low afterwards. Sunday
looks
like remaining very cold with moderate to severe frosts in Scotland
persisting
all day over snow cover. However, the very cold northerly will be replaced
by
rising pressure in Scotland and northern Ireland so only a scattering of
snow
showers here at first. England and Wales will see more snow showers during
the
day, especially in the southeast where some could be heavy and prolonged
with
perhaps drifting in the fresh to strong northeast winds associated with a
low in
the southern North Sea. High ground in the SW could also have a few heavy
snow
showers.

On Monday any snow in the SE should die out and all parts will become dry
and
sunny but overnight freezing fog may linger and it will remain very cold
with
severe frosts over deep snow cover.

Tuesday again fine and dry but with freezing fog and severe frost perhaps
persisting all day in eastern areas.

After Tuesday, eastern parts have a very good chance of staying dry but
very
cold with more fog and frost at night, but western parts of England,
Wales,
northern Ireland and western Scotland will see Atlantic fronts encroach
from the
west. Very unsure of timing and how far east fronts will push, but there
is a
50% chance of blizzards developing over all high ground as the milder air
and
eventually rain tries to push east.

On Saturday 30% chance of pressure building over Scandinavia
re-introducing a
bitterly cold northeasterly airflow bringing snow to the SE.
Trend for the following week beginning 7th March at very low confidence is
for
strengthening east or northeast winds to bring a return to very cold
weather and
snow to many parts possibly causing major problems as pressure builds
rapidly
over Scandinavia.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from Met. Office Dartmoor.

Will.
--
Chief Forecaster USW

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Hi Dave,

Not as much as I expected to be fair.
Looking out of the window it is still snowing very lightly (has been for past 2
hours now) but only just over 1 cm full cover and temperature -1.4 deg C with a
10-15 knot wind.
The baroclinic leaf and polar vortex that was supposed to give us heavy snow in
the SW moved too quickly south and developed later giving heavy precipitation
over the Channel but not over us. Mind you it has given Hampshire and the Isle
of Wight a surprise as an "arm" of the spiral has swung up from the south.
Looking north I notice another line of snow near SW Wales that could certainly
give me some more overnight if it comes far enough east.
Interesting times - a very meaty situation to say the least.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dave. C wrote in message ...
Thanks Will, hope you got some good snow today - sure you must have done!
Dave