Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for losses or damage
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for
his own actions at all times.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



MAINLY MILD SW WINDS - FLAT RIDGES ALONG THE CHANNEL - MANY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW AND N - BEST IN THE S and SE

The general pressure over the period 11th to 20th May shows an area of
LP to the W and NW of Britain and a flat ridge of HP skirting the
southern half of the country. This means a continuance of the past
weather variations, with wetter conditions for the N, NW and W parts
of the country and dryer conditions for the S and SE areas. As the
general wind direction is from W to S, slightly mild conditions can
be expected over the country, especially down the E side.

Although an area of cooler temperatures lies generally to the W of
Britain, the country will experience slightly above average
temperatures due to the generally SW wind flow. The fact that the
Azores HP sends only flat ridges along the S coast means that the
temperatures do not increase by much. The coolest part of the period
should fall near 15th when WNW winds come in behind a depression near
Scotland.

Strong wind days seem to peak near 17th when a LP system comes in from
the Atlantic behind the HP on 16th. Mostly Northern Ireland and W
Scotland seem to be affected. Throughout the period the N'ern North
Sea and W Scotland experience strong winds from depressions coming
in from the Atlantic and spreading across N'ern areas.

The run of weather starts on 11th, when LP to the NW of the country has
a trough stretching SE'wards into S England. HP over the near continent
is moving away, but brings S winds along the E coast. Over the near
Atlantic, a small wave is embedded in W'erly winds which are moving
towards Ireland. As the fine weather over the E side of the country
moves away, rain showers move into W'ern districts and spread E'wards.
On 12th, LP remains to the NW of the country and the small wave on its
southern flank moves in the direction of Ireland. Ahead of the wave,
HP builds up to form a flat ridge which stretches E'wards, across the
SE of England and then into France. SW winds flow across the country
bringing unsettled weather to most areas except the S and SE of
England.
On 13th, a LP area to the W and NW of the country has a small wave near
S Ireland. A flat HP ridge has travelled along the Channel and lies
near the North Sea area. Winds are once again from the SW and
unsettled weather covers the whole country.
On 14th, a medium sized LP is near the NW of Scotland and has a trough
southwards to a small wave near S Ireland. HP over the near continent
draws mild S'erly winds along the E coast. Rain showers are to be
found over the W'tern half of the country, and dryer weather over the
E.
On 15th, a belt of LP stretches from NW Scotland to SW Norway. An
area of HP to the SW of Ireland moves into the Channel, and an area of
HP leaves the SE of England and moves into the near continent. Winds
are mild W to SW in the S'ern half of the country, but cooler NW winds
come into NW Scotland. In the N'ern half of the country there will be
rain and showers, in the S'ern half, there will be showers and bright
periods.
On 16th, an area of HP over S, SE and NE England moves off E'wards. LP
to the NW of the country brings SW winds to Ireland and W Scotland. It
will be fine and dry in the SE of the country, but rain and showers will
spread into W'ern areas later.
On 17th, the continental HP still covers parts of SE England and the
LP to the NW of the country has a secondary LP coming towards W
Ireland. Mild SW winds cover most of the country except the SE of
England. Showers cover NW and W areas, but fairer conditions lie over
the SE.
On 18th, LP to the NW of the country has a trough stretching E and
SE'wards to a small LP in the North Sea. HP starts to build-up S of
Ireland and moves towards the Channel. Showers over most of the
country.
On 19th, the HP to the SW of the country moves along the S coast
towards N France. A small disturbance moves away from the E coast
and the North Sea into the continent. LP still lies to the W and NW of
Britain, but this is moving E'wards towards W Scotland. W'erly winds
bring showers and bright periods into the country.
On 20th, a LP covers N Ireland and W Scotland, while HP over France
still affects the SE of England. Winds will be SW in the E of the
country and W in the West. Rain spreads in from the W during the day.

For the next 10-day period there seems to be an anticyclone moving
slowly across the country from W to E during the half-way mark. That
means cool at first becoming warmer later on, but dryer in the middle.
It's worth waiting for.

Cheers, Keith

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Keith Darlington :
Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for losses or damage
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for
his own actions at all times.

Although the user of a forecast this far ahead probably deserves what
they get!

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk