See article from The Independent:

http://tinyurl.co.uk/tk73

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=429448

also a bit about the coming "heatwave"

JPG

"JPG" wrote in message
...
See article from The Independent:

http://tinyurl.co.uk/tk73

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=429448

also a bit about the coming "heatwave"

They keep re-inventing the wheel, don't they? They was a paper about using
100mbar charts as an aid to medium range forecasting in Met Mag in about
1961.

Philip Eden

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote in message
...

"JPG" wrote in message

...
See article from The Independent:

http://tinyurl.co.uk/tk73


http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=429448

also a bit about the coming "heatwave"

They keep re-inventing the wheel, don't they?
They was a paper about using
100mbar charts as an aid to medium range
forecasting in Met Mag in about
1961.

Philip Eden

And I'm pretty sure meteorologists noticed well
before this, probably not too long after radio
sonde ascents started in earnest. Best example
recently is the very early change in lower
stratospheric wind direction in 1995, resulting in
prolonged drought conditions through summer 95 and
96 and indeed winter 95/96.

In that article about the coming 'heatwave', they also
say the hottest day of the year was July 14th - Cardiff
31.3, I thought the hottest day this year was July 15th ?
I recorded 32.2c on that day .A snip from the 'Indy' -
''The hottest day of the year so far was 14 July when the temperature
reached 31.3C (88F) in Cardiff.''

JRM

On Fri, 01 Aug 2003 11:29:38 +0100, JPG wrote:

See article from The Independent:

http://tinyurl.co.uk/tk73

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=429448

also a bit about the coming "heatwave"

JPG

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=429448

also a bit about the coming "heatwave"

Thanks for that - it reminded me about a question which I've often wondered
about. I assume that the mathematical modeling which underlies forecasting
includes constant comparison between what the models suggest will happen and
what actually transpires.

Does the Met Office - or anyone else - publish information about the
reliability of its forecasts in terms of differences between forecast and
actual conditions? If so, are they available on the web? I appreciate -
or at least guess - that there's a difference between a forecaster's
interpretation and the detail churned out by the machines.


Andrew

On Fri, 1 Aug 2003 12:29:09 +0100, "Philip Eden"
philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:


"JPG" wrote in message
.. .
See article from The Independent:

http://tinyurl.co.uk/tk73

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=429448

also a bit about the coming "heatwave"

They keep re-inventing the wheel, don't they? They was a paper about using
100mbar charts as an aid to medium range forecasting in Met Mag in about
1961.

Not much momentum in the stratosphere I would have thought, given the
low pressures, so my "first principles" thinking would suggest that
the influence of stratospheric winds would not be very significant.

JPG


Philip Eden

JPG wrote in
:

Not much momentum in the stratosphere I would have thought, given the
low pressures, so my "first principles" thinking would suggest that
the influence of stratospheric winds would not be very significant.

There was an article in Nature about this a year or two ago - using
stratospheric circulation to forecast what's going to happen in the
troposphere - the two seemed to lag by about 30 days if I recall. Was quite
good for forecasting blocked episodes and periods of strong zonal activity.
I think Waghorn posted the links if I recall - Mr Waghorn?

Cheers
Richard

"JPG" schreef in bericht
Not much momentum in the stratosphere I would have thought, given the
low pressures, so my "first principles" thinking would suggest that
the influence of stratospheric winds would not be very significant.

Maybe this sites can give you some information on the subject:
http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/%7Esparc/
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20...ndsurface.html

The KNMI (Dutch Met Office) gives long-term-winter forecasts by the end of
October based on the average temperature on 16 km level (48.000 feet) in the
North of America (over Alaska to Greenland). (In terms of: normal; colder
than normal or warmer than normal). There seems to be a positive correlation
between that average temperature and the average winter temp in North
Western Europe.
Further research is on :-))) -- oh, well, researching is a never-ending
story!!

Wijke

ere was an article in Nature about this a year or two ago - ...thinkWaghorn posted the links if I
recall - Mr Waghorn?
Cheers
Richard
Mr Dixon,I presume you mean-
Baldwin, M.P., and T.J. Dunkerton, 2001: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes.
Science, 294, 581-584.
Electronic version of this paper availablethrough this link.
http://horizon.atmos.colostate.edu/a...erton_2001.pdf
other papers at-
http://horizon.atmos.colostate.edu/a...rs/StrTro.html
including-
Charlton, A. J., A. O'Neill, D. B. Stephenson, W. A. Lahoz, M. P. Baldwin, 2003: Can knowledge of
the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere? Q. J.
Roy. Met. Soc, in press.
http://horizon.atmos.colostate.edu/a..._QJRMS2003.pdf
which addresses the statistical nature of the relationship,I quote-
"... analysis appears contradictory to the findings of Baldwin (2001) and
Thompson et al. (2002) that composites of large AO events in the stratosphere
show a large change in the tropospheric AO some time after the event. We
show that while the relationship between the stratosphere and troposphere is
real in a statistical sense, the quantitative size of the relationship is small....)

BTW a copy of the SCIENCE 03 paper is at-
http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/shuckburgh/baldwin.pdf
and a 'perspectives'at
http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/people/efs20/baldwin.pdf

;-)
regards,
david

But you cannot view any level in the atmosphere in isolation, the flow at
any level is linked to that above via geostrophic considerations. If the
flow in the stratosphere changes, there will be a corresponding change at
all levels below, unless there is a compensating change in the thermal field
between.


--

Not much momentum in the stratosphere I would have thought, given the
low pressures, so my "first principles" thinking would suggest that
the influence of stratospheric winds would not be very significant.

JPG






Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.


Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html