Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0608z, 27/04/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
Light and variable winds cover the UK, which is surrounded by three lows. By
T+144 a low deepens to the SW, bringing SE'lies and easterlies. There's
little change at T+168, with the low filling in situ.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows a ridge over Ireland, bringing northerlies for
England and Wales with NW'lies elsewhere. NW'lies and northerlies continue
to affect the UK at T+144, with a ridge persisting over Ireland.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under NE'lies and northerlies, due to a ridge over Scotland and
a slack low over the Low Countries. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over
SW England to +3C over much of Scotland. The winds fall light at T+144 as
the UK lies between lows to the NNW and south, but by T+168 the winds become
SW'lies for many as the low to the NNW deepens and moves slowly SE'wards. A
trough from the low covers the UK on day 8, bringing SSE'lies, southerlies
and westerlies, followed by southerlies and SE'lies on day 9 as the low
continues to sink southwards. By day 10 a trough from a low to the SE covers
the UK, bringing SE'lies and westerlies.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run places the UK under NW'lies, with a weak ridge over
southern England and a low east of Iceland. 850hPa temperatures range
from -1C over northern Scotland to +2C over Northern Ireland. The winds
become stronger NW'lies at T+144 as the low moves SE'wards close to
Shetland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
A weak ridge covers the UK, bringing northerlies and NNE'lies for many.
850hPa temperatures range from -5C over NW Scotland to -1C over SE England.
The winds become NW'lies and westerlies at T+144 as a low moves over
Shetland, followed by more NW'lies and westerlies at T+168. By day 8
stronger westerlies and SW'lies cover the UK, with a deep low to the NW.

In summary, some of the models still show winds from a northerly quarter
over the Bank Holiday weekend, although as ever they seem to disagree on the
specifics. The GFS, for example, shows NE'lies for Sunday before winds fall
light and pick up from the SW, whereas the ECM keeps winds from an easterly
quarter over the UK instead. The Canadian, Japanese and MetO runs all show
some variation of NW'lies.