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#1
August 2nd 03, 12:51 AM
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Not the Long Range Forecast for August 2003
Using analogue selection for 30-day periods and pattern
sequences for 5-day periods during June/July, then using best-fit years, gives us the following: Mean sea-level pressure over the British Isles: anticyclonic Mean pressure anomaly pattern over the Br.Is: anticyclonic/easterly CET +2.0 degC (+2.9 mean max, +1.1 mean min) E&W RR 53% E&W sss 128% Verification for July's Not The Long-Range Forecast: Sea-level pressure pattern: Actual: cyclonic SSW Forecast: weakly NW Anomaly pattern: Actual: cyclonic S to SE Forecast: weakly anticyclonic SE CET: Forecast +0.8 degC Actual +1.1 degC Rainfall: Forecast 103% Actual 106% Sunshine Forecast 97% Actual 98% Philip Eden |
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