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Old August 2nd 03, 12:51 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 6,134
Default Not the Long Range Forecast for August 2003

Using analogue selection for 30-day periods and pattern
sequences for 5-day periods during June/July, then using
best-fit years, gives us the following:

Mean sea-level pressure over the British Isles:
anticyclonic

Mean pressure anomaly pattern over the Br.Is:
anticyclonic/easterly

CET +2.0 degC (+2.9 mean max, +1.1 mean min)
E&W RR 53%
E&W sss 128%

Verification for July's Not The Long-Range Forecast:
Sea-level pressure pattern:
Actual: cyclonic SSW
Forecast: weakly NW

Anomaly pattern:
Actual: cyclonic S to SE
Forecast: weakly anticyclonic SE
CET:
Forecast +0.8 degC
Actual +1.1 degC

Rainfall:
Forecast 103%
Actual 106%

Sunshine
Forecast 97%
Actual 98%

Philip Eden




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