According to the forecasts during most of yesterday
heavy thundery rain was due for this morning,
one forecast even said embedded thunderstorms.

Doesnt look very thundery on radar!

nguk.. wrote:

According to the forecasts during most of yesterday
heavy thundery rain was due for this morning,
one forecast even said embedded thunderstorms.

Doesnt look very thundery on radar!



Neil, you really must learn to ignore the forecasts. Just wait and see.

On yesterdays BBC-1 lunchtime news, the national weather stated one
thing, and the local forecast was something completely different.

So, stop believing what the forecasts say - they are usually
sufficiently inaccurate to render them of no practical use - especially
in a "challenging" synoptic situation like this.

--
Chris
www.ivy-house.net
Swaffham, Norfolk

"Succorso" wrote in message
...
nguk.. wrote:

According to the forecasts during most of yesterday
heavy thundery rain was due for this morning,
one forecast even said embedded thunderstorms.

Doesnt look very thundery on radar!



Neil, you really must learn to ignore the forecasts. Just wait and see.

On yesterdays BBC-1 lunchtime news, the national weather stated one
thing, and the local forecast was something completely different.

So, stop believing what the forecasts say - they are usually
sufficiently inaccurate to render them of no practical use - especially
in a "challenging" synoptic situation like this.

--
Chris
www.ivy-house.net
Swaffham, Norfolk


I wouldn't say ignore them completely. I'd advise you watch them, and also
take a look at the synoptic charts, current conditions yourself too, and
come to your own consensus. Then I think you would have seen the risk of
thundery rain is quite small today. Even the national BBC forecast backed
away from thundery rain to the extent that just one lightning symbol was
left on the chart during the evening forecast.

Added [Thursday April 29 2004 : 3:28:29 PM]

Once again, thunderstorms are expected to embed themselves within the
frontal system and rainfall totals could be pretty impressive as the
heaviest of the pulses moves into Southern and Central areas around 11am
tomorrow.

No thunderstorms as yet... and moved into the uk earlier than 11am... and
its NOT impressive

"nguk.." wrote in message
...
Added [Thursday April 29 2004 : 3:28:29 PM]

Once again, thunderstorms are expected to embed themselves within the
frontal system and rainfall totals could be pretty impressive as the
heaviest of the pulses moves into Southern and Central areas around 11am
tomorrow.

No thunderstorms as yet... and moved into the uk earlier than 11am... and
its NOT impressive




Count yourself lucky Neil, you appear to have had heaps of thunderstorms in
the past couple of years. Meanwhile in Bedfordshire we saw just 4 last year
and 1 so far this year (and that was in January). We missed out completely
the other day.

Count yourself lucky Neil, you appear to have had heaps of thunderstorms
in
the past couple of years. Meanwhile in Bedfordshire we saw just 4 last
year
and 1 so far this year (and that was in January). We missed out completely
the other day.



True .

"nguk.." wrote in message
...
According to the forecasts during most of yesterday
heavy thundery rain was due for this morning,
one forecast even said embedded thunderstorms.

Doesnt look very thundery on radar!


Neil,

You knew about the uncertainty involved with this front, I thought Kaddy
on the local news put you at ease ? ;-)

If you look at the radar animations you clearly were in a narrow corridor
where rain did not fall, although it was heavy on both sides of you -
http://www.avbrief.com/newcharts//rd...im_small_4.gif
The chance of embedded thunderstorms was there, it was never definite.

Tomorrow is looking very complex once again, dare I say it even thundery
along central southern England. It looks as if a pre frontal plume of
13-14 degC WBPT air will advect westwards overnight around the low to the
S -
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/...hour=Animation
This along with areas of potential vorticity moving N it could all go
bang -
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/...hour=Animation

Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"nguk.." wrote in message
...
According to the forecasts during most of yesterday
heavy thundery rain was due for this morning,
one forecast even said embedded thunderstorms.

Doesnt look very thundery on radar!


Neil,

Tomorrow is looking very complex once again, dare I say it even thundery
along central southern England.

In fact, SE parts and also E parts look at threat also from any storms
that kick off over the continent in the warm plume. Loaded gun scenarios
at both Essen and De Bilt -

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...0&STNN=De+Bilt
(12Z De Bilt)

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...410&STNN=Essen
(12Z Essen)

Sferics too - http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rsfloc.gif

Joe

On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 11:44:58 +0100, "JAHGS" inspired by
Deep Thought wrote:


Count yourself lucky Neil, you appear to have had heaps of thunderstorms in
the past couple of years. Meanwhile in Bedfordshire we saw just 4 last year
and 1 so far this year (and that was in January). We missed out completely
the other day.

.... and you can count yourself lucky too JAHGS, we here in High wycombe have had
just three claps of thunder in the last 2 years here in High Wycombe, and one of
those was on Tuesday night - and distant at that! YET AGAIN High Wycombe missed
the storms!

Last week's weather:

Monday - Sunny all day - max. 19.8C
Tuesday - Gloomy until 2pm, then sunny intervals max 18.5C @ 4pm
Wednesday - No sun at all - continuous rain/drizzle max. 9.7C
Thursday - No sun at all - almost continuous rain/drizzle max 7.9C
Today - no sun at all, almost continuous rain/drizzle max 10.1C

And the local BBC forecast (18:45pm) shows no sign of any sun and continuous
rain here on the Chilterns right through the Bank Holiday weekend. In fact,
looking at the GFS forecasts for the next two weeks, it looks like Wednesday may
be the only dry day here for 2 weeks!! Seeing anything of the sun in the next
two weeks looks VERY doubtful as well! Best chance looks like Wednesday. And it
looks cold too - a lot of cold, howling north-easterlies. 1978 all over again?
(i.e. the summer that never was!!)

One consolation though, very little chance of developing skin cancer in High
Wycombe with the amount of sun we've had here this wekk - or of being struck by
lightning! But a high chance of developing trench foot!

Nigel

Get rid of the notme.spammers from my e-mail address to reply via e-mail

Aagh! Every time I learn something new... it pushes something old out of my brain!