Alastair McDonald wrote:


Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.


I used this logic(?) when my neighbours asked me at the end of one long,
hot, dry summer what the next summer would be like. The year was 1975. Doh!


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

"Graham Davis" wrote in message
...
Alastair McDonald wrote:


Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.


I used this logic(?) when my neighbours asked me at the end of one long,
hot, dry summer what the next summer would be like. The year was 1975. Doh!

Well, as I said in my second post, as soon as you detect a trend it
ends. That does imply there was a trend! or even such a cycle exists.

Cheers, Alastair.

In article ,
Alastair McDonald k
writes:

"Graham Davis" wrote in message
...
Alastair McDonald wrote:


Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.


I used this logic(?) when my neighbours asked me at the end of one long,
hot, dry summer what the next summer would be like. The year was 1975. Doh!

Well, as I said in my second post, as soon as you detect a trend it
ends. That does imply there was a trend! or even such a cycle exists.

Up to and including 1975, diring the 20th century all the outstandingly
good summers in England occurred in odd-numbered years and almost all
the outstandingly bad ones in even-numbered years.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

The QBO has a strict definition, which is as follows: A well-defined
oscillation of the zonal wind component in the equatorial stratosphere, the
period being about 27 months. It also known as the stratospheric
oscillation. The amplitude of the fluctuation is greatest at around 25 km
altitude, and decreases with distance from the equator.

It certainly does not apply to UK rainfall.

Don't you think that if there was a worthwhile correlation between the
rainfall in one year and the next, it would be resulting in successful
long-range forecasts for the next millennium?
--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.


Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html



"Alastair McDonald" k wrote
in message ...

"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and
with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I
remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and
rained !

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO)
which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Cheers, Alastair.

The QBO has a strict definition,......
Don't you think that if there was a worthwhile correlation between the
rainfall in one year and the next, it would be resulting in successful
long-range forecasts for the next millennium?
--
Bernard Burton
I think somebody tried to establish a correlation -in Met Mag in the 70's?Interestingly the the
solar cycle is thought to influence the QBO .
The QBOs an example of a dynamical phenomenon that you can see 'in the lab'-
http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/people/mem/
http://dennou-k.gaia.h.kyoto-u.ac.jp...p/bo/index.htm

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

BUT!Hot of f the press from the EGU meeting Nice-

http://www.cosis.net/members/meeting...51f17ad555e924
THE QBO LINK TO EUROPEAN WINTER WEATHER
F. A. Parton (1), M. A. Saunders (1)
(1) University College London
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the most predictable interannual climate fluc-tuation
on the planet. It is a quasiperiodic variation in the direction of the zonal flow in
the equatorial stratosphere with a period of ? 28 months. A recent study has suggested
a link between the QBO and northern hemisphere wintertime weather in January. We
extend this work and show persuasive evidence for a significant link between the QBO
and (1) the winter (December-January-February) Arctic Oscillation, (2) various winter
NAO indices and (3) the winter central England temperature. Power spectral analysis
of winter data between 1874 and 1999 (1899 to 2002 for the Arctic Oscillation) shows
that each of the above signals has a significant (p 0.05) power peak at a period of
either 2.3 or 2.4 years; this corresponding to the QBO mean period. The QBO link to
European winter temperature appears spatially and temporally variable, with regions
of significant association showing a southward shift in latitude from Scandinavia to
central Europe as the winter progresses from December to February. We explore the
hypothesis that the QBO is exerting a forcing effect on European winter weather by us-ing
lead/lag correlation analyses and wind data at different heights in the stratosphere
and troposphere.


--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Bernard Burton" wrote in message
...
The QBO has a strict definition, which is as follows: A well-defined
oscillation of the zonal wind component in the equatorial stratosphere, the
period being about 27 months. It also known as the stratospheric
oscillation. The amplitude of the fluctuation is greatest at around 25 km
altitude, and decreases with distance from the equator.

It certainly does not apply to UK rainfall.

Don't you think that if there was a worthwhile correlation between the
rainfall in one year and the next, it would be resulting in successful
long-range forecasts for the next millennium?

I assume that is a rhetorical question which requires no reply. So I
will make none! Huh?

Cheers, Alastair.

"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I
remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained
!

Joe



I think it will rain quite a lot yes, but temperatures will probably be
about a degree above average, simply because practically every month
recently has (apart from Oct 03), mainly though because overnight
temperatures have been so high. My mean minima for April 04 is 6.2c, higher
than anything I have recorded in April since my records began 9 years ago.