"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained !

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO) which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Cheers, Alastair.

On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 11:23:52 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained !

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO) which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Why does it? 1976 was a hot summer following a hot summer.

Where is the scientific paper about this QBO?

Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

JPG


Cheers, Alastair.

"JPG" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 11:23:52 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I
remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained
!

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO)
which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Why does it? 1976 was a hot summer following a hot summer.

Where is the scientific paper about this QBO?

Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

JPG

I am not joking, but I have been reading "Weather Cycles" by
Burroughs ISBN 0 521 52822 4, and he points out that as soon
as you identiy a weather cycle it stops working!

A quick search with www.google.com will soon find you plenty on
the QBO. Note that it is quasi, and so it varies and its average
length is 27 months. That would account for 1976 being hot, as
well as 2003. They are exactly 12 QBO cycles apart.

AFAIK there is no explanation for the QBO, so I cannot explain
why it should produce its effects. Moreover the solar cycle (sun
spots) and the ENSO will also have an effect.

Cheers, Alastair.

Alastair McDonald wrote:



I am not joking, but I have been reading "Weather Cycles" by
Burroughs ISBN 0 521 52822 4, and he points out that as soon
as you identiy a weather cycle it stops working!

A quick search with www.google.com will soon find you plenty on
the QBO. Note that it is quasi, and so it varies and its average
length is 27 months. That would account for 1976 being hot, as
well as 2003. They are exactly 12 QBO cycles apart.

AFAIK there is no explanation for the QBO, so I cannot explain
why it should produce its effects. Moreover the solar cycle (sun
spots) and the ENSO will also have an effect.

Cheers, Alastair.



Soon after I started working in the Ice Section of the Met Office
(1965), I noticed that pattern of spring breakup of the ice in Hudson's
Bay followed a biennial pattern. Every even year, the ice broke from the
eastern shore and, in odd years, from the west. As far as I remember,
the oscillation had started by 1960 or earlier. I know it continued to
1972 but I left the section before seeing the 1973 breakup.

Against the odds, this continued after I started using it for
forecasting but perhaps Murphy's Law worked in a different way, because
the knowledge was next to useless for me to help our customers. What was
the point of knowing which side of Hudson's Bay would break first if you
couldn't tell when you could penetrate the ice along the route into the Bay.

The oscillation didn't even give me a clue as to whether the breakup
would be late or early, because an odd year could have persistent, warm
SW winds or cold winds from the NW. Similarly, even years could have
early or late breakups.


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

"Graham Davis" wrote in message
...
Alastair McDonald wrote:



I am not joking, but I have been reading "Weather Cycles" by
Burroughs ISBN 0 521 52822 4, and he points out that as soon
as you identiy a weather cycle it stops working!

A quick search with www.google.com will soon find you plenty on
the QBO. Note that it is quasi, and so it varies and its average
length is 27 months. That would account for 1976 being hot, as
well as 2003. They are exactly 12 QBO cycles apart.

AFAIK there is no explanation for the QBO, so I cannot explain
why it should produce its effects. Moreover the solar cycle (sun
spots) and the ENSO will also have an effect.

Cheers, Alastair.



Soon after I started working in the Ice Section of the Met Office
(1965), I noticed that pattern of spring breakup of the ice in Hudson's
Bay followed a biennial pattern. Every even year, the ice broke from the
eastern shore and, in odd years, from the west. As far as I remember,
the oscillation had started by 1960 or earlier. I know it continued to
1972 but I left the section before seeing the 1973 breakup.

Against the odds, this continued after I started using it for
forecasting but perhaps Murphy's Law worked in a different way, because
the knowledge was next to useless for me to help our customers. What was
the point of knowing which side of Hudson's Bay would break first if you
couldn't tell when you could penetrate the ice along the route into the Bay.

The oscillation didn't even give me a clue as to whether the breakup
would be late or early, because an odd year could have persistent, warm
SW winds or cold winds from the NW. Similarly, even years could have
early or late breakups.

It is interesting that it was sea ice that first caught your eye as being
biennial. Many annual average temperature records also show periods
of annual reversals. But it was the plots below of ice extent and ice area
for the Arctic which finally sent me searching on the web for a biennial
oscillation, and I found the QBO. The plots to which I am referring are;
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/decade.html
There are two plots on that diagram. The light grey dots are ice
extent and the black dots are ice area. The extent, which is probably
more sensitive to the polar vortex shows the most obvious bieniality,
from 1992 to 2000. What interests me is the linearity of the alternative
years 1996, 1998, 2000, & 2002. It will be interesting to see if this
year 2004 follows that trend.

The fact that the bieniality breaks down is probably due to the fact
that the cycle is not exactly two years. With a period of 2.25 years,
it will be 180 degress out of phase with the seasonal cycle after
4 cycles viz 10 years.

Cheers, Alastair.

Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

It all reminds me of Murphy's laws in weather forecast:

http://www.e-kairos.gr/murphy2.html

;-)

"Yannis" schreef in bericht
...
Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

It all reminds me of Murphy's laws in weather forecast:

http://www.e-kairos.gr/murphy2.html

;-)


Having read your lovely interpretation of Murphy's law, I'm wondering how
its possible that many forecasts are right - however some even can be very
accurate and detailed. A counterpart Law ?? :-)).

Wijke
SE Flevopolder ms 3 m asl
The Netherlands
Sunny, some cirrus, Tc 23.5 :-)
warm easterly force 4; 1000.3 HpA dropping; 56%

"Wijke" wrote in message
...

"Yannis" schreef in bericht
...
Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

It all reminds me of Murphy's laws in weather forecast:

http://www.e-kairos.gr/murphy2.html

;-)


Having read your lovely interpretation of Murphy's law, I'm wondering
how
its possible that many forecasts are right - however some even can be
very
accurate and detailed. A counterpart Law ?? :-)).

Wijke
SE Flevopolder ms 3 m asl
The Netherlands
Sunny, some cirrus, Tc 23.5 :-)
warm easterly force 4; 1000.3 HpA dropping; 56%

Hi Wijke,

Some of that warmth is being advected NW, behind the rain band -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html
I hope you are enjoying your lovely day, it's now 5 days here without
seeing blue sky.

Joe
--
Manchester, UK

"Joe Hunt" schreef in bericht
...

Hi Wijke,

Some of that warmth is being advected NW, behind the rain band -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html
I hope you are enjoying your lovely day, it's now 5 days here without
seeing blue sky.



Yes, Joe, I've noticed :-(. Am following the Manchester-weather the last
half year with more than ususal interest.
Thunderstorms developed over Southern Netherlands -- heavy hail; huge
stones, cloudburst up to 140 mm/h. And all the damage that goed with this
sort of weather. Will try to get some pictures later.

Wijke
Some castellanus -- Tc 20.4 C -- calm

Wijke wrote in message ...
:Thunderstorms developed over Southern Netherlands -- heavy hail; huge
:stones, cloudburst up to 140 mm/h. And all the damage that goed with this
:sort of weather. Will try to get some pictures later.

Small photo here http://www.vwkweb.nl/ Scroll down and click on the link
"Noodweer in Zuid Nederland" (severe weather in the south of the
Netherlands) in the top light blue box.

Location is Eijsden near Maastricht in South Limburg in the far SE of the
Netherlands.

A severe storm hit the Maastricht area between 17.00 and 17.45 local time
today (Friday). Police and fire brigade received over 100 reports of
lightning strikes, flooded basements and streets, fallen trees and displaced
manhole covers. Hailstones the size of pigeons' eggs fell and some streets
were 30 cm deep in water after the storm. In the nearby Voeren area of
Belgium greenhouses were damaged by hailstones up to 3 cm across.

In the Brabant area (south of the Netherlands near the border with Belgium)
there were many lightning strikes and manhole covers were forced up by heavy
rain. In Eindhoven a cinema was evacuated when the roof threatened to
collapse. Cars were trapped by floodwater in road tunnels by Eindhoven
station. http://frags-palace.com/Eindhoven/

Hailstones 5 cm across were observed at Bergeijk in North Brabant
http://noodweer.aliebergsma.nl/index.../slide0001.htm

Colin Youngs
Brussels