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Old May 1st 04, 08:23 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default British Isles Outlook - 21st to 31st May 2004


Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for losses or damage
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for
his own actions at all times.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SW WINDS - SLIGHTLY MILDER - NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE NORTH - MORE
MOVEMENT IN THE SOUTH

The general weather situation over the period 21st to 31st May has LP
to the W and NW of the British Isles with a trough E'wards into
Scotland. HP lies W/E to the S of Britain with a build-up
NE'wards into the S North Sea. There may be HP to the NE of Scotland.
Winds are generally from the W or SW. The LP to the NW of the
country has little variation The HP, on the other hand, moves
E'wards along the Channel to build-up at four-day intervals over SE'ern
areas. Temperatures should be slightly above average over most of the
country, but cooler NW winds out in the Atlantic could swing round the
LPs into the W and NW of Britain from time to time. (near 23rd, 25th,
28th and 29th)

Strong wind days a near 21st,(N coast - LP N of Scotland), near
24th,(W Scotland - LP to NW of Britain), near 27th,(W coast - LP to
NW of Britain), near 28th,(over Scotland and SW Britain - LP to NW of
Scotland and secondary near SW Ireland), near 29th,(NW Scotland - LP
to NW and W Scotland), near 30th,(N Scotland and N North Sea - LP W
and NW Scotland with trough E'wards to SW Norway), near 31st,(NW
Scotland - LP W and NW Scotland)

The run of weather over the period starts on 21st with LP to the N of
Scotland and HP to the S of the British Isles. Cool NW winds come into
the W of Scotland and a W airflow covers the S half of Britain. Rain
showers lie over Scotland and the W side of the country. Dryer
conditions cover the E and S parts of Britain.
On 22nd, a LP area lies to the NW of the country. A HP area has moved
across the S of the country and has reached the North Sea area. Winds
have turned SW and have become stronger over the N of Scotland. Rain
showers cover the NW of the country and dryer conditions lie over the E
and SE parts.
On 23rd, a complex LP area lies to the N and NW of Britain, and the HP
area to the S and SE has been pushed further S'wards. W to NW winds
come into the W of the country and the S to SW winds over E'tern parts
is pushed into the North Sea. Rain showers cover the W'tern half of
Britain. Dryer conditions can be expected in the extreme E of the
country.
On 24th, whereas HP has built up over the E'tern parts and the North
Sea, LP still lies to the NW of Scotland. SW winds flow across the
country with strong winds near W Scotland and light winds in the SE of
Britain. Rain showers lie to the NW of Britain and dryer areas cover
the S, SE and E.
On 25th, a LP trough lies from N Ireland across Scotland to SW Norway.
HP over the near continent affects the extreme SE of the country.
Winds will be W to SW and rain showers will cover most of Britain but
dryer conditions will spread into W areas later.
On 26th, the Azores HP has a small ridge into S Ireland and S England
which is moving E'wards. LP lies to the N of Scotland and another LP
lies out in the Atlantic W of Scotland. A further LP area lies near N
Spain and S France which could just affect the extreme SE of the
country. Winds will be light W over most areas. Rain showers can be
expected over Scotland and extreme S and SE England at first. Dryer
conditions spread E'wards over the S half of the country.
On 27th, LP lies to the NW of the country and HP covers the near
continent andthe North Sea. Winds will be SW and may be strong along the
W coast. Rain showers lie from W Scotland down the W of Ireland and
these move slowly E'wards. SE England will be dryer.
On 28th, a complex area of LP lies N to S just to the W of Ireland.
There is the chance of a small LP near the Channel. HP lies almost N
to S over the North Sea. Winds will be S over the country. Stronger
winds can be expected in S and SW'ern parts. Rain showers lie over
W'ern areas and over S and SE England. Dryer conditions lie over E and
NE'ern areas of thecountry.
On 29th, a large area of LP lies to the NW of the country. A belt of
HP runs W to E to the S of Britain. Winds will be SW (strong in the
NW of Scotland) and belts of rain stretching from NE'ern parts towards
SW'ern parts will move across the country.
On 30th, LP lies to the W and NW of Scotland with a trough to the E of
Scotland. HP covers the area S of theChannel. and stretches NE'wards
into the S of the North Sea. W inds will be W over the country. but
SW over the North Sea, where winds may be strong. Fronts cover the
country as they stretch SW'wards into the Atlantic. A small wave may
develop on the front to the SW of the country. Rain showers cover most
of Britain.
On 31st, LP still lies to the NW and W of Britain. On the S flank of
this LP, a small wave moves towards the Channel. HP lies to the SE of
the country and extends NE'wards up the North Sea. Rain showers lie
to the NW of the country and in the Channel. Otherwise, dry
conditions cover the rest of the country, especially E'ern areas.

This period of weather described here, seems to be more zonal with W to
SW winds covering the country and pressure centres moving generally W to
E. The brighter spots are the small transient HP areas moving along
the Channel and expanding over the North Sea.

The next 10-day period coming up in June, still has LP towards the NW
of the country. The HP area this time, is centred more towards S and
SE France and the W Mediterranean so that generally warm winds flow
over W France towards the S North Sea. SE'tern areas of the country
should generally get the benefit of higher temperatures.

Cheers, Keith

 
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