With allthis talk about silly temps on the various automated forecasts
I was wondering, just how likely is the UK highest temperature record
to go this week?

All the conditions seem to be in place, late July/early August is statistically
the warmest time of year and we have a persistant SE flow forecast that's
is coming from an exceptionally hot continent.
So I would rate the chances as 'possible' rather than 'highly improbable'
as one might rate them wrt any 'normal' upcoming summer heatwave.

Whatever happens,I think thetemperatures over the next week are likely
to be exceptional.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

On Sat, 2 Aug 2003 11:26:14 +0100, "Col"
wrote:


Whatever happens,I think thetemperatures over the next week are likely
to be exceptional.

How depressing. :-(


Phil

Col.
I would suggest that the maximum temperatures likely to be seen this coming
week are in the Midlands and east Wales, especially with the winds mostly in
an easterly / southeasterly direction as winds approaching the coast are
usually temperature modified whatever level they were when leaving the
continent. I would go for a maximum of around 32c in these areas as we are
looking for a re-warming as they cross the UK. But as we know the sun is now
moving south again at an increasing rate so the UK warming effect will not
be quite as great as lets say it would be in late June / early July.

Of course what I have said may be total rubbish, but what I would say is
that any up and coming heatwaves are likely to start losing their intensity
from mid August, thats not to say the same holds true for the larger land
masses of Europe.

Regards. Len.

"Col" wrote in message
...
With allthis talk about silly temps on the various automated forecasts
I was wondering, just how likely is the UK highest temperature record
to go this week?

All the conditions seem to be in place, late July/early August is
statistically
the warmest time of year and we have a persistant SE flow forecast that's
is coming from an exceptionally hot continent.
So I would rate the chances as 'possible' rather than 'highly improbable'
as one might rate them wrt any 'normal' upcoming summer heatwave.

Whatever happens,I think thetemperatures over the next week are likely
to be exceptional.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

But Len, in 1906 35 to 36C occurred at the beginning of September and that
was after the mercury in London did not rise above 23C until June. One of
the keys to hot weather is the dryness of the ground and in 1906 both July
and August were drier than average except for those places affected by the
tornadic storms on this day. Guildford for instance suffered great damage
with several deaths and 37mm of rain in 15 minutes but that is another
story.
There has not been too much rain in parts of the Southeast in spite of
forecasts mentioning gloom and doom for much of the recent week. At my own
station only 6.6 mm in last 6 days. Much of this will evaporate today alone.
Sea temperatures in 1906 were cooler than today but it does depend also on
wind speed and direction with a south east wind very favourable plus the
atmosphere itself being dried by strongly subsiding air within the
anticyclone.
With Lisbon currently at midday cloudy at 38C ,Archangel fair at 31C,
Marseilles sun at 34C,Berlin sun at 31C there is a potential for some hot
conditions in Britain.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon,Surrey
www.Frostedearth.com

"Len Watts" wrote in message
...
Col.
I would suggest that the maximum temperatures likely to be seen this
coming
week are in the Midlands and east Wales, especially with the winds mostly
in
an easterly / southeasterly direction as winds approaching the coast are
usually temperature modified whatever level they were when leaving the
continent. I would go for a maximum of around 32c in these areas as we
are
looking for a re-warming as they cross the UK. But as we know the sun is
now
moving south again at an increasing rate so the UK warming effect will not
be quite as great as lets say it would be in late June / early July.

Of course what I have said may be total rubbish, but what I would say is
that any up and coming heatwaves are likely to start losing their
intensity
from mid August, thats not to say the same holds true for the larger land
masses of Europe.

Regards. Len.

"Col" wrote in message
...
With allthis talk about silly temps on the various automated forecasts
I was wondering, just how likely is the UK highest temperature record
to go this week?

All the conditions seem to be in place, late July/early August is
statistically
the warmest time of year and we have a persistant SE flow forecast
that's
is coming from an exceptionally hot continent.
So I would rate the chances as 'possible' rather than 'highly
improbable'
as one might rate them wrt any 'normal' upcoming summer heatwave.

Whatever happens,I think thetemperatures over the next week are likely
to be exceptional.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

"danny" wrote in message
...
If the models are fairly accurate, 32-33c. The setup doesn't look right for
anything higher.

We'll see.
I have a feeling somewhere is going to get to 35/36C this week.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

One other factor.

I am going away, and whenever I do, some record or another is broken. Last
year we had those flash floods in Southend, so what will it be this year :-)

Keith (Southend)

--
**************************************************
"Weather Home and Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net/

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Col, I'm going for 33.6 deg C somewhere in West Midlands/East Wales.

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Col wrote in message ...
With allthis talk about silly temps on the various automated forecasts
I was wondering, just how likely is the UK highest temperature record
to go this week?

All the conditions seem to be in place, late July/early August is statistically
the warmest time of year and we have a persistant SE flow forecast that's
is coming from an exceptionally hot continent.
So I would rate the chances as 'possible' rather than 'highly improbable'
as one might rate them wrt any 'normal' upcoming summer heatwave.

Whatever happens,I think thetemperatures over the next week are likely
to be exceptional.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

On Sat, 2 Aug 2003 15:06:18 +0100, "Will"
wrote:


================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

Col, I'm going for 33.6 deg C somewhere in West Midlands/East Wales.


Which equates to 35.1 deg C at Barbourne, I feel.

/translation mode OFF

--
Dave

I think 35 or 36C will be reached by next weekend.

Tom
Docklands, East London

"Fotis" wrote in message
m...
snip


Unfortunately I agree with that and I am convinced that this time
next week even the most fanatic fans of hot weather will regret it! I
believe some places will get up to 35-36°C towards the second half of
the week and some local records will be broken.
snip

I'd agree with that Fotis. A steady increase of about 2°C per day over the
next 3 to 4 days seems quite feasible, assuming a max of around 29°C today
we're looking at 35°C by Wednesday with a thickness of around 574DAM in the
far south. A plume of 20C+ theta-w air flirts with the central south around
midweek but doesn't last long. This trend reflected in the GFS London
ensemble
http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.html

Whatever happens, it'll be too hot for me.

Cheers,
Jon.