A while ago on here there was some discussion of winter temperature extremes,climate change etc..
At-
http://www.knmi.nl/onderzk/klimscen/reference.html
there is a draft paper-
Shifts of means are not a proxy for changes in extreme winter temperatures in climate projections
M. Schaeffer , F.M. Selten, J.D. Opsteegh,submitted to Climate Dynamics.
This reports ensemble simulations with an intermediate complexity coupled GCM forced with the IPCC
scenario A1b .(see-
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/029.htm )
For a grid point nearest de Bilt,Holland, the authors find a disproportionate decrease in winter
minima due to a decrease in the frequency of easterlies and an increase in westerlies associated
with a more +ve NAO.
Likely this applies to other areas with maritime climate on western continental fringes.
(The disproportionate effect is due to a change in the shape of the probability density function
{PDF} of temperatures as opposed to the mean distribution)
Other interesting papers on climate change are available at the same site inc-
Brink, H.W. van den, G.P. Können and J.D. Opsteegh, 2004. Statistics of extreme synoptic-scale wind
speeds in ensemble simulations of current and future climate Submitted to Journal of Climate.
on storm frequency and intensity,

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regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)