Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0604z,
13/05/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
Easterlies cover England and Wales, with high pressure over the North Sea;
elsewhere winds are SSW'lies. The high declines in situ at T+144 with little
change to conditions over the UK. By T+168 the high merges with another east
of Greenland, with light southerlies for many.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
A large high is centred over the Netherlands, bringing light winds across
the UK. The high sinks southwards at T+144, introducing WSW'lies to Scotland
and Northern Ireland.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under a large high with light winds for all. 850hPa temperatures
vary from -3C over northern Scotland to +10C over Cornwall. The high sinks
slowly southwards at T+144, allowing westerlies to affect Scotland. By T+168
the high lies to the ESE, although with a new high to the west the UK lies
under generally light winds. The new high declines over Scotland on day 8,
with NE'lies followed by easterlies on day 9 for much of the UK. By then,
the remnants of the high lie to the east of Scotland, leading to southerlies
and SSW'lies across much of Scotland. The high builds over Scandinavia on
day 10, with ESE'lies and southerlies for much of the UK; low pressure
covers SW England.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
Light winds are affecting much of the UK due to high pressure over England,
Ireland and Wales. Scotland lies under westerlies, with 850hPa temperatures
ranging from +1C over northern Scotland to +11C over southern England.
SW'lies move over Scotland and Northern Ireland at T+144 as the high moves
slowly eastwards.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows high pressure to the NE with southerlies or SSW'lies
for the majority of the UK. The high brings easterlies for southern England
along with 850hPa temperatures as high as +12C; the lowest 850 hPa
temperatures are found over NW Scotland, at +6C. The high recentres over
northern Scotland at T+144, with easterlies for all. Easterlies and
southerlies once again affect the UK at T+168 with the high moving over the
North Sea, followed by southerlies for all on day 8 as the high declines
over the North Sea.

In summary, the runs continue to show a warm (if not hot) spell approaching
for next week, with settled conditions especially for England and Wales.
Whether Scotland and Northern Ireland see cloud and wind or clear skies
remains to be seen, as the runs still vary with regards to the positioning
of high pressure.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
In summary, the runs continue to show a warm (if not hot) spell
approaching
for next week, with settled conditions especially for England and Wales.

Wow - I was looking for something better than yesterdays Max of 11.9c !!

Any idea when the next recordable rain in the SE will be ? Just so I can
ration emptying the full water butt........

Looking at the MRF I dont see any for the next 10 days..

Phil

"Phil Layton" wrote in message ...
Any idea when the next recordable rain in the SE will be ? Just so I can
ration emptying the full water butt........

Looking at the MRF I dont see any for the next 10 days..
Well, judging by the ensemble output it looks likely that the next week will
be dry:

http://64.246.48.81/pics/MT8_London_ens.gif

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued
0604z,
13/05/04.
In summary, the runs continue to show a warm (if not hot) spell
approaching
for next week, with settled conditions especially for England and Wales.

Hi Darren,

I have been thinking about filing a paper on such an occurrence, it
happens annually if you have not noticed. Examinations start = weather
heats up ! Does this warrant any scientific backup !?

ATB, Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued
0604z,
13/05/04.
In summary, the runs continue to show a warm (if not hot) spell
approaching
for next week, with settled conditions especially for England and Wales.

Hi Darren,

I have been thinking about filing a paper on such an occurrence, it
happens annually if you have not noticed. Examinations start = weather
heats up ! Does this warrant any scientific backup !?

It's a well known corrolary of the Second Law of Thermodynamics called
Sod's Law!

Hope this helps,

Cheers, Alastair.

Joe Hunt wrote:

I have been thinking about filing a paper on such an occurrence, it
happens annually if you have not noticed. Examinations start = weather
heats up ! Does this warrant any scientific backup !?

Not true here - exams have been going on for the past three weeks. Sod's
Law has it that because last year was my last year of exams, the
weather's been grim so far! And of course it's going to brighten up next
week - I'm off on holiday then!

Jonathan
Canterbury, Kent