Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0600z, 14/05/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
The UK lies under high pressure, with light winds for all. The high builds
and drifts eastwards at T+144, bringing easterlies for southern England and
NW'lies for Scotland. By T+168 a weak low covers Northern Ireland, with
southerlies and SE'lies over the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
WNW'lies and westerlies cover the UK as the result of a ridge over SW
England and a trough north of Scotland. By T+144 the winds become NW'lies as
high pressure to the west moves slowly NE'wards.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies NW'lies, due to a ridge over Wales and southern England. 850hPa
temperatures range from -2C over NW Scotland to +7C over SW England. The
winds become NNW'lies and NNE'lies at T+144 as the high to the west
declines, followed by northerlies at T+168. A ridge topples over the UK on
day 8, with westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland, followed by
stronger westerlies for all on day 9 with a deep low over Shetland. The low
moves NE'wards for day 10, allowing NW'lies to affect the UK.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
As with the ECM run, high pressure and light winds cover the UK. 850hPa
temperatures range from +2C over northern Scotland to +10C for southern
England. By T+144 the winds become WNW'lies for Scotland, as a weak trough
moves eastwards.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a rige across England and Wales, with westerlies
elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures vary from +1C over northern Scotland to +10C
over Cornwall. The winds become NW'lies and WNW'lies at T+144 due to a high
moving ENE'wards across the Atlantic, but by T+168 the high declines to thr
west of Ireland, with lighter NNW'lies for most. The remnants of the high
cover the North Sea on day 8, leading to ESE'lies and SSE'lies over the UK.

In summary, the runs now show signs of another northerly spell after the
weekend's warmth. The GFS is the best example of this, with today's 00z run
firmly in the "cool" category; yesterday's 12z ensembles showed a roughly
50/50 split between warm/hot runs and cool ones. The Japanese and MetO runs
also show northerly elements to a lesser degree, but as ever more runs are
needed.