Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0602z, 1/06/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
A ridge covers England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. The winds become
westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland at T+144, with the ridge
persisting over England and Wales. By T+168 the ridge builds, with moderate
westerlies restricted to northern Scotland.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Moderate westerlies cover Northern Ireland and Scotland, with low pressure
south of Iceland. England and Wales lie under light winds and a ridge.
There's very little change at T+144, as the ridge persists over England and
Wales.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
SSW'lies cover the UK, with low pressure to the WNW and a ridge over the
near Continent. The 850hPa temperature chart shows a Spanish Plume heading
towards the UK, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +5C over western
Scotland to +14C over Cornwall. By T+144 the UK lies under generally light
winds from a weak trough, but northern Scotland escapes the heat with
SW'lies instead. A ridge builds over the UK at T+168 with light winds for
all, followed by westerlies and SSE'lies on day 8 as a trough moves NE'wards
over the UK. The trough lies to the north of Scotland on day 9, with
westerlies for most, followed by easterlies and southerlies on day 10 as a
high builds over the UK.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
A ridge from the north covers the UK, leading to SW'lies and SSW'lies for
Northern Ireland and Scotland, with light winds elsewhere. 850hPa
temperatures range from +5C over East Anglia to +8C over Cornwall. The ridge
builds and moves eastwards at T+144, with little change in the winds over
the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Unavailable today.

In summary, the runs show settled and increasingly warm conditions for
England and Wales, but the rest of the UK looks like seeing considerably
cooler and less settled conditions due to low pressure near Iceland. The
models disagree with temperatures, with the GFS and MetO showing thicknesses
around 564dam over SE England by Sunday, whereas the GEM run is 10 dam
lower. Yesterday's 12z GFS ensembles suggested a 33% chance of hot air aloft
by Sunday, a 33% chance of warm air and a 33% chance of a cooling trend, so
as ever more runs are needed.