Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0605z,
10/06/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
Westerlies and NW'lies cover the UK, with the Azores High centred to the WSW
of Ireland. The high moves westwards at T+144, allowing NNW'lies to affect
the UK. There's little change at T+168 as the high continues drifting
westwards.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office chart shows moderate WNW'lies across the UK, as the result of
high pressure to the WSW. The high declines and moves westwards at T+144,
bringing lighter NW'lies for all.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
High pressure is centred to the SW of the UK, with WNW'lies for all. 850hPa
temperatures range from freezing over northern Scotland to +14C over
southern England. The high sinks SW'wards at T+144, allowing NW'lies and
NNW'lies to move across the UK. By T+168 a small low sinks SE'wards over
England and Wales, with northerlies and NW'lies elsewhere. By now the Azores
High lies well to the west of the UK and it ridges strongly northwards
towards Greenland on day 8, bringing stronger NNW'lies for all. The winds
become northerlies and NW'lies on day 9 as the blocking high stays to our
west. The high declines slightly on day 10, with northerlies across the UK.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run also shows WNW'lies and NW'lies, due to the Azores High to
the SW of the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from +1C over NE Scotland to +11C
over SW England. The winds become NW'lies at T+144, as the high moves slowly
NNW'wards.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The UK lies under WSW'lies, with high pressure over the Isles of Scilly.
850hPa temperatures range from +8C over NW Scotland to +13C over SW England.
The winds become westerlies at T+144 as the high recentres further to the
WSW, followed by northerlies and NW'lies at T+168. By day 8 a ridge covers
the UK, with light winds for most.

In summary, the runs continue to show the Azores high retrogressing during
next week, with initially hot conditions (over England and Wales at least)
being replaced by cooler air as NW'lies move over the UK. As next weekend
approaches, the GFS brings in a summer equivalent of a northerly blast, with
850hPa temperatures for all within a degree of freezing by the 20th. As
ever, more runs are needed.

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 10 Jun 2004 at 06:07:04, Darren Prescott wrote
:

In summary, the runs continue to show the Azores high retrogressing during
next week, with initially hot conditions (over England and Wales at least)
being replaced by cooler air as NW'lies move over the UK.

Sounds good to me.

As next weekend
approaches, the GFS brings in a summer equivalent of a northerly blast, with
850hPa temperatures for all within a degree of freezing by the 20th.

But what does that mean at ground level?

Cool nights? Even close to being a ground frost?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

"Paul Hyett" wrote in message ...
But what does that mean at ground level?

Cool nights? Even close to being a ground frost?
Well, the GFS is showing air temperatures falling no lower than +6C:

(eg http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1325.gif from today's 12z run).

Dewpoints are around +5C for Scotland,

http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn13210.gif

so I'd imagine most areas would escape a frost (especially given the very
short nights).

However, I guess mid-June frosts aren't unknown, so I'm loathe to say
there's no chance of a frost.

In uk.sci.weather on Fri, 11 Jun 2004 at 17:34:00, Darren Prescott wrote
:
But what does that mean at ground level?

Cool nights? Even close to being a ground frost?
Well, the GFS is showing air temperatures falling no lower than +6C:

Dewpoints are around +5C for Scotland,

so I'd imagine most areas would escape a frost (especially given the very
short nights).

However, I guess mid-June frosts aren't unknown, so I'm loathe to say
there's no chance of a frost.

I was surprised to see the forthcoming hot spell being forecast to
continue into Wednesday - I thought by then the high would have shifted
west?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
But what does that mean at ground level?

Cool nights? Even close to being a ground frost?

However, I guess mid-June frosts aren't unknown, so I'm loathe to say
there's no chance of a frost.

Hi, Darren and Paul,

Unusual not to have at least one ground frost here in June. Average is
3.

Average for July and August is 1 each, so I think ground frost is
certainly a possibility later in the week.

It's a competition here for my vegetables between cabbage root fly and
frost! I find it needs an air frost to do much damage from now on,
though.

Thanks again for the daily summaries, Darren.

More pics of the Teesdale funnel cloud on the Copley pages, btw, taken
by Roger Brugge and his daughter.

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.freeserve.com/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk
(All times GMT)


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In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 12 Jun 2004 at 10:20:13, Ken Cook wrote :
"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
But what does that mean at ground level?

Cool nights? Even close to being a ground frost?

However, I guess mid-June frosts aren't unknown, so I'm loathe to say
there's no chance of a frost.

Hi, Darren and Paul,

Unusual not to have at least one ground frost here in June. Average is
3.

Just 6 in 21 years here, though they used to happen about 1 year in 2
before 1900.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham