Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0602z, 12/06/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
Northerlies cover the UK, with high pressure well to the west. The winds
become NW'lies at T+144 as the high ridges NNW'wards to the west of
Greenland, followed by NW'lies and WNW'lies at T+168. By then, a slack low
lies to the NW and the Azores and Greenland Highs have merged, linking with
a high over the North Pole.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office chart low pressure over the North Sea and a high to the west,
with strong to gale force northerlies and NNW'lies over the UK. The low
moves away to the east and deepens at T+144, allowing lighter northerlies to
cover the UK.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under northerlies and NW'lies, with high pressure to the WSW and
low pressure over northern Scandinavia. 850hPa temperatures range from -2C
over NE Scotland to +2C over SW England. The winds become westerlies and
NW'lies at T+144 due to the Azores High ridging northwards, followed by
westerlies, northerlies and NE'lies as a low moves southwards over the North
Sea at T+168. Day 8 sees NNW'lies and NW'lies, with low pressure over
Germany, followed by lighter northerlies and westerlies on day 9 as another
low moves over the UK. The low develeps a second centre on day 10, with one
centre over the Western Isles and the other over the Midlands.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run also shows a high to the WSW, this time with NW'lies and
NNW'lies for the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over NE Scotland to
+5C over Cornwall. There's little change at T+144, with WNW'lies and NW'lies
across the United Kingdom.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
NNW'lies cover the UK, again due to the Azores High being displaced well to
the north of the Azores. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over Scotland to
+9C over SW England. The winds become northerlies at T+144 as a ridge sinks
southwards, followed by WNW'lies as a low moves over the Northern Isles at
T+168. The low deepens and moves eastwards on day 8, leading to northerlies
for Scotland and westerlies elsewhere.

In summary, in many ways the charts show a similar setup to last winter,
with uncertainties about how far northwards the Azores High will ridge. If
it ridges as far north as the JMA and GFS runs suggest, some quite cool
weather is likely, especially by night. The runs all show troughs or lows
near the UK as well, suggesting the weather will become increasingly
unsettled for all after the short hot spell. As ever, more runs are needed.

In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 12 Jun 2004 at 06:03:40, Darren Prescott wrote
:

In summary, in many ways the charts show a similar setup to last winter,
with uncertainties about how far northwards the Azores High will ridge. If
it ridges as far north as the JMA and GFS runs suggest, some quite cool
weather is likely, especially by night. The runs all show troughs or lows
near the UK as well, suggesting the weather will become increasingly
unsettled for all after the short hot spell. As ever, more runs are needed.

I just bought a new hosepipe, but whether that means it'll become so dry
that using them will be banned, or so wet that they won't be needed, is
anybody's guess.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham