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THUNDERY LOWS UP FROM SPAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME
FINE WEATHER IN CENTRAL AREAS; BUT MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTH
AND NORTH-WEST. SOMETIMES HOT AND SULTRY IN THE SOUTH.

The general pressure situation for the period 1st to 10th July has a HP
ridge stretching from the SW of Ireland across the central part of
Britain towards N France - and a LP between Iceland and Scotland. A
small LP - probably a thundery-low - covers the Channel and N Biscay
area. The thundery LP is expected on a few occasions during the first
half of the period. It could bring hot sultry weather to the S of the
country.

Temperatures should have a small peak around 2nd due to the SW winds
over the country. After that temperatures start to fall about 24th and
dip up to about 27th. From 28th to the end of the period temperatures
should rise, especially over the near continent.

The run of weather starts on 1st with a weak belt of HP stretching from
the Irish Sea eastwards across central Britain to France and the
Low-countries. A secondary depression lies near S Wales. Pressure is
Low to the NW of Scotland so that W winds flow over Scotland and
Northern Ireland, and SE winds cover S England. The rest of the
country has light variable winds. There may be some thundery showers in
the S of England and some isolated showers in Scotland, otherwise fine
weather will cover the rest of the country.
On 2nd, a further pulse of HP comes into the SW of Britain stretching
NE'wards into NE England and the North Sea. LP lies to the W and NW
of Scotland. The secondary in the Channel has moved into the S North
Sea. Winds will be SW over Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England.
Otherwise winds will be light and variable. Showers will cover Northern
Ireland and W Scotland, the rest of the country will be fine and dry.
On 3rd, a belt of HP will stretch W/E across central Britain. In the
extreme N of Scotland, winds will come from the W. In the S of England
winds will be E'terly. There is the chance of a small secondary coming
into the Channel from the Biscay and NW France area, and then spreading
E'wards towards inland-France and SE England. Most of the country
will have fine, dry weather except the extreme north and south coasts,
where cloud and showers will be found. Thunder may occur along the S
English coast.
On 4th, the weather situation will be much the same as yesterday. The
HP across the center of the country may strengthen and stabilize
itself. The LP to the W and NW of Scotland moves E'wards towards the W
Scottish coast. The secondary LP should be near the SE coast of
England.
On 5th, the small to medium sized LP near NW Scotland moves further E
to be near the W coast of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The HP is
pushed towards the SE of England and the North Sea. The secondary
LP has probably moved into France. Showers down the W coast of
Britain spread E'wards towards the rest of country.
On 6th, the Scottish LP has now moved towards N Scotland. HP
stretches along the Channel into the southern North Sea. W winds
cover the country and there is much cloud and rain spreading from W to
E.
On 7th, LP lies to the N of Scotland, and HP lies over France. Another
HP lies to the SW of Ireland and moves into the SW of the country.
Winds are generally W. Weather is fine in the S and showery with bright
intervals in the N. .
On 8th, the HP ridge covers the SE of England and the North Sea as
cyclonically shaped isobars come into Northern Ireland and W
Scotland. Winds are SW in the W, but light and variable in the E.
Fair at first, but cloud and showers come into the W of the country and
move slowly E'wards.
On 9th, a trough of LP stretches SE'wards into W Scotland and Northern
Ireland. HP has moved into the North Sea. Winds are S or SW'erly,
veering W in the west Fine at first in the E,, but heavy rain showers
come into the W of the country and spread E'wards.
On 10th, LP lies to the W and NW of Scotland and has a trough
stretching SSE'wards into Cornwall. HP ridge just covers SE England and
the southern North Sea. SW winds flow across Britain at first, but
cooler W winds come into the west later. .Unsettled weather moves
across the country.

The thing to watch out for during this period is the SPANISH PLUME. I
have been making a few small changes to improve the forecast (as I do
all the time), and some of these changes show up the thundery activity
quite clearly.

Cheers, Keith.