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UNSETTLED WITH WEST TO SOUTH-WEST WINDS AS DEPRESSIONS CROSS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES ON 11TH AND 16TH. AS PRESSURE RISES ON
17TH, SECONDARY DEPRESSIONS OVER BISCAY AND NORTH-WEST FRANCE MOVE
INTO THE NORTH SEA. A QUICK MOVING ANTICYCLONE CROSSES THE COUNTRY ON
19TH AND 20TH. - GENERALLY COOLER FROM THE NORTH-WEST.

The general pressure situation for the period 11th to 20th June 2004,
has an LP area S of Iceland with a trough stretching SE'wards into
England. The Azores HP reaches as far as the Scilly Isles and another
HP runs up from E France up to Scandinavia. A small secondary
depression sits over the Channel not far from Dover. Winds are
generally southerly in the E of Britain and veer westerly in the W.
The trough brings frequent rain showers to the W and NW parts of the
country. Anticyclone activity is generally confined mostly to the
extreme SW and S of England, and possibly along the E coast of Britain,
where the weather is expected to be a little dryer.

Temperatures will be cooler from the north-west of the country and a
small rise in temperature can be expected on 13th in the S of England.
Once again cooler airs come in from the north-west from 14th to 17th.
On the 18th cooler air comes into the SE of England behind the
secondary over France. And then an upper air trough to the W of
Ireland brings cooler air into the W of Britain. So apart from the 13th
and 18th, when a small increase in temperature occurs in the S, there
appears to be mostly lower temperatures than we would like.

The run of weather starts on 11th when an area of LP to the W and NW of
Scotland has a trough stretching E'wards towards E Scotland. Winds are
SW to W across the country and as the cold front (CF) appears to have
crossed the country there should be bright intervals and showers over
all areas.
On 12th, the LP has moved to the N of Scotland with a small area of HP
over France and another just coming into the Channel Islands. Winds
are mostly W. Showers cover the northern half of the country and dryer
conditions exist further south. Belts of rain extend N/S down the W
side of Britain and move E'wards.
On 13th, LP exists to the N and NW of Scotland. A HP area moves along
the Channel into the North Sea, and a flat ridge moves towards S
Ireland. There may be a small secondary to the SW of Ireland moving
towards SW England. Winds are SW in the E of the country and veer W in
the west. Fair weather in the S and SE and showery weather in the N and
NW of the country.
On 14th, a complex area of LP runs W/E to the N of Scotland. Winds at
the 500mb level may become stronger and push a LP area towards E
Scotland. A small flat ridge comes into the SW of England. Winds are
W in the east of the country backing to SW in the west. belt of rain
cross Britain as fronts move from W to E.
On 15th, a deep depression comes towards NW Scotland from the Atlantic.
A small ridge in front of it comes into SW England. A small LP in the
North Sea near Scotland moves away to the E. Fronts cross the northern
parts of the country. The upper air cold-centre associated with the
Scottish LP deepens and moves to the NW of Scotland. A belt of rain
moves into Scotland and Ireland, otherwise windy and showery, but fair
weather along the S coast.
On 16th, the deep LP moves to the NE of Scotland and its rear trough
swings SE'wards across Scotland. A belt of rain associated with the
trough crosses the country from NW to SE. Winds are SW ahead of the
trough, but the W and NW winds behind the trough move from the W coast
E'wards. Fair weather early on in the SE, but rain spreads to all
areas from the W.
On 17th, pressure rises behind the trough and a ridge of HP comes in
from the SW and crosses the country. LP exists well away to the N of
Scotland. Small secondary depressions over Biscay and NW Fance move NNE
towards the Channel. This could mean warm, humid weather for the SE of
England with the threat of thunder during the afternoon. For the rest
of the country, the weather will be dry and fine.
On 18th, LP still exists to the N of Scotland and a small disturbance
on its SW flank sits out in the Atlantic and moves towards W Scotland.
The secondary depression near SE England still affect the weather.
with a threat of thunder during the afternoon. HP to the SW of England
just affects the SW bringing some warm air into the S of the country.
Fronts associated with the small disturbance out in the Atlantic move
towards Ireland. The rest of the country should have fair weather.
On 19th, a complex area of LP stretches from SW Iceland to E Scotland.
To the W of Ireland, a deepening LP in the Atlantic moves towards NW
Ireland. At the same time, a small area of HP moves towards S
Ireland. An upper-air trough stretches N/S down Ireland with strong
upper winds to the E of it. Winds will be mostly W. Showers in the N
and weather improving from the SW.
On 20th, the upper-air trough stretches N/S almost down the centre of
the country. On the surface, LP stretches from NW and W Scotland down
the Irish Sea to Cornwall. HP exists over the near continent and
another HP stretching N/S over the Atlantic comes towards Ireland.
Fronts run down the centre of the trough so that a wide belt of rain
moves from W to E across the country.

In this forecast, I've brought in some help from the forecast 500mb
charts and charts showing the expected position of fronts. Although the
500mb charts run smoothly and are generally dependable, the charts
showing the position of fronts are risky. The timing factor (down to an
hour or two) has to be perfect to gather the correct position of the
front. So far, the hard work on the problem of exact timing hasn't
produced the consistency I need, but the solution isn't very far away.

There will be no posting of the "British Isles Outlook" from 16th June
till 20th July 2004.. If I can, I'll get the next ten-day period,
(21st to 31st July) posted before 16th June.

Cheers, Keith