Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0616z, 13/06/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html
The UK lies under moderate NW'lies, with low pressure east of Shetland and a
high to the west. The winds become lighter NNW'lies at T+144 as the high
declines, followed by northerlies on day 7 as the high ridges northwards to
Iceland and beyond.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office chart shows moderate northerlies across the UK, with high
pressure to the west. Unusually, 1000-500 thicknesses over England are only
a couple of dam higher than at the Pole, as low as 534dam in places.
Thicknesses rise at T+144 as a developing low moves over Northern Ireland,
introducing westerlies across England and Wales.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Low pressure covers southern Scotland and northern England, with NE'lies to
the north and WNW'lies to the south. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over
northern Scotland to +3C over southern England. The low deepens over the
North Sea at T+144, allowing northerlies to affect the whole of the UK. By
T+168 high pressure extends from the North Pole via Iceland to the Azores
and onwards to 25N and beyond, while the low deepens in situ. The UK lies
under northerlies and NNE'lies, with an upper cold pool across England and
Wales. Day 8 sees the low fill and northerlies persist over the UK, followed
by NW'lies on day 9 as the low drifts over southern Norway. The chart for
day 10 shows a weak ridge bringing westerlies to England and SW'lies for
Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under a trough, with light winds.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows northerlies and NW'lies, with a trough over the North
Sea. 850hPa temperatures vary from -1C over northern Scotland to +5C over
Cornwall. The winds become NNW'lies for all at T+144, as the high to the WSW
declines and sinks slowly SE'wards.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
High pressure lies to the west and a ridge covers Biscay. The result is
NW'lies and northerlies, while 850hPa temperatures vary from -1C over NE
Scotland to +3C over SW England. The NW'lies continue at T+144 as a trough
moves across Scotland, but by day 7 low pressure deepens over the North Sea,
with stronger northerlies and NW'lies. The low deepens further on day 8 as
the Greenland High builds southwards, leaving the UK under NNW'lies and
northerlies.

In summary, a northerly spell is still likely for the end of next week,
although the extent of unsettled weather remains variable between models.
However, with thicknesses hovering around 540dam, if it remains cloudy
temperatures could be pretty low by day, whereas with clear skies cold
nights are likely. As ever, more runs are needed.