This trough that's heading SE seems to be a rather weak affair.Visible to the NW ,from SE London,as
a dark line St/Sc with apparently little rain on it.
The Herstmonceux sounding is incomplete but has a very steep lapse rate near the surface.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...912&STNM=03882

I wonder if a tornado or two is possible,if deeper convection gets going?
V shallow Cu/Sc here today and warm in the sun,

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
This trough that's heading SE seems to be a rather weak
affair.Visible to the NW ,from SE London,as
a dark line St/Sc with apparently little rain on it.
The Herstmonceux sounding is incomplete but has a very steep lapse
rate near the surface.


http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...912&STNM=03882

I wonder if a tornado or two is possible,if deeper convection gets
going?
V shallow Cu/Sc here today and warm in the sun,

--

.... between 1500 and 1530 GMT (add one hour for local time), wind
freshened, sky overcast, with Sc mammatus and Ac above - a *little*
rain, measured 'trace' only; now (1645GMT), cloud breaking well,
sunshine returning and a lovely end to a near perfect day here in the
East Berkshire desert! (Looks like it *should* change next week - but I
shan't count raindrops until they actually fall in the gauge! I've seen
this promised rain many times before either come to nothing, or more
likely, not as much as the raw model output would have us believe.)

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley: data via -
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/metindex.htm
Bracknell (Wooden Hill/Tawfield), Berkshire
NGR: SU 854 667 Elev: 80m
Lat: 51DEG23MIN30SEC(N): Long: 00DEG46MIN28SEC(W)

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

but I
shan't count raindrops until they actually fall in the gauge! I've seen
this promised rain many times before either come to nothing, or more
likely, not as much as the raw model output would have us believe.)

Martin.


They certainly are portraying a very wet scenario. It will be interesting to
watch this one develop and how the models handle it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn844.gif

ATB, Joe

Brief light shower here,looks a bit heavier to west.Lots of virga around with Sc mammatus.Instabilty
must be shallow and surface air dry.Looks like it's perked up over southern England on the latest
radar.
How about a waterspout or two?
;-)

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

They certainly are portraying a very wet scenario. It will be
interesting to
watch this one develop and how the models handle it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn844.gif


.... just had a look at the latest GFS PPN output; if the Tuesday frame
is correct

http://129.13.102.67/pics/Rtavn724.gif

then the forecast on the BBC Weather Centre web site for Wimbledon for
Tuesday is going to be a tad awry!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=3564

Martin.

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message


... just had a look at the latest GFS PPN output; if the Tuesday frame
is correct

http://129.13.102.67/pics/Rtavn724.gif

then the forecast on the BBC Weather Centre web site for Wimbledon for
Tuesday is going to be a tad awry!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=3564


Why so?
Both forecasts suggest rain.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

A case where the automated forecast (which is basically raw "UKMO" model output)
will differ from the rest when that model is out on a limb as it clearly was
with the 0000 run. Given the differences evident on the T+132 and T+108 MetO
"FAX" output then the human forecasters in the Exeter Met Office (Pinhoe
Penthouse as Martin would say :-) ) clearly did not believe the raw model either
!

" Rooooooneeey "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Col wrote in message ...

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message


... just had a look at the latest GFS PPN output; if the Tuesday frame
is correct

http://129.13.102.67/pics/Rtavn724.gif

then the forecast on the BBC Weather Centre web site for Wimbledon for
Tuesday is going to be a tad awry!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=3564


Why so?
Both forecasts suggest rain.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

In message , Will
writes

================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

A case where the automated forecast (which is basically raw "UKMO"
model output)
will differ from the rest when that model is out on a limb as it clearly was
with the 0000 run. Given the differences evident on the T+132 and T+108 MetO
"FAX" output then the human forecasters in the Exeter Met Office (Pinhoe
Penthouse as Martin would say :-) ) clearly did not believe the raw
model either
!

An increasing number of UKMO customers are provided with what is little
more than "packaged" raw model output. I wonder what happens to those
forecasts when the model output is discarded by the human forecasters
:-)

Norman
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England