the current run now takes it down to 987hPa
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
12Z run now 983hPa @ 06Z tomorrow.Overall the track seems more northerly than 24hrs ago,and a
broader centre,

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
the current run now takes it down to 987hPa
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
12Z run now 983hPa @ 06Z tomorrow.Overall the track seems more northerly
than 24hrs ago,and a
broader centre,

--
regards,
david

12Z data is only just coming through so that chart would normally be based
on 06Z model data (perhaps modified). I certainly don't remember a system
like this in June; probably not that surprising given the dates Philip's
provided us with in the other thread.

Jon.

12Z data is only just coming through so that chart would normally be based
on 06Z model data (perhaps modified) ..Jon

That occured to me after I posted .So where does the 12Z "analysis" chart actually come from ?

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
12Z data is only just coming through so that chart would normally be
based
on 06Z model data (perhaps modified) ..Jon

That occured to me after I posted .So where does the 12Z "analysis" chart
actually come from ?


Not sure I follow, I was tempted to say the darkest depths of the chief's
brain ;-)

Jon.

Is this the deepest summer (Jun-Aug) low since July 11/12 1998? Cant think
of a similar one since then...

Jim, Bournemouth (4mm so far, 4x as much rain as in thr whole of June before
today)


"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
I see the current run now takes it down to 987hPa.Overnight development
rather rapid with the messy
baroclinic zone now well organised into a comma shaped mass-

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/pic...2/0557/ch2.jpg

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

Waghorn wrote-So where does the 12Z "analysis" chart
actually come from ?

Jon wrote-
Not sure I follow...
Sorry,realise this is almost meaningless.The forecast charts are from the 06Z run,but are the 12Z
obs assimilated into the model and an analysis produced (albeit possibly modified) and issued at
the same time as the 06Z forecast charts?
Or have got this and my knickers in a twist?
Is there some where the MO assimilation/ forecast cycle is set out?
Apologies if this has been covered.
In ignorance-
Waghorn

"Jim Smith" wrote in message
...
Is this the deepest summer (Jun-Aug) low since July 11/12 1998?
Cant think
of a similar one since then...

Depends where you're talking about Jim. Mid-July 2000 produced
982mbar
in the central North Sea, June 2002 960 mbar near the Faeroe
islands, and
June 2000 966 mbar in the same area.

But Bournemouth may well have its lowest summer pressure
since long before 1998.

Philip Eden

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
snip
The forecast charts are from the 06Z run,but are the 12Z
obs assimilated into the model and an analysis produced (albeit possibly
modified) and issued at
the same time as the 06Z forecast charts?
Or have got this and my knickers in a twist?
Is there some where the MO assimilation/ forecast cycle is set out?

To clarify, (normally) the only forecast charts based on 06Z (or 18Z) data
are the T+24s for the corresponding time the next day. The 06Z T+24 is
usually issued around 10Z (12Z T+24 at 16Z and so on).

Following the 00Z model runs charts are produced to T+84 by 07Z with T+108
and T+132 following during the morning. At 12Z charts run to T+72 by 19Z
with the night shift issuing the T+96 and T+120 during the evening.

This should through some light on the data assimilation processes that take
place to form the model analysis,
http://www.metoffice.com/research/nw...sis/index.html

The deputy chief/medium range forecaster (who issues charts T+36 to T+132)
has the facility to intervene (e.g. input bogus observations) in the process
with the intention of 'nudging' the model analysis towards reality should it
be required.

HTH.
Jon.

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
snip
The forecast charts are from the 06Z run,but are the 12Z
obs assimilated into the model and an analysis produced (albeit possibly
modified) and issued at
the same time as the 06Z forecast charts?
Or have got this and my knickers in a twist?
Is there some where the MO assimilation/ forecast cycle is set out?

To clarify, (normally) the only forecast charts based on 06Z (or 18Z) data
are the T+24s for the corresponding time the next day. The 06Z T+24 is
usually issued around 10Z (12Z T+24 at 16Z and so on).

Following the 00Z model runs charts are produced to T+84 by 07Z with T+108
and T+132 following during the morning. At 12Z charts run to T+72 by 19Z
with the night shift issuing the T+96 and T+120 during the evening.

This should throw some light on the data assimilation processes that take
place to form the model analysis,
http://www.metoffice.com/research/nw...sis/index.html

The deputy chief/medium range forecaster (who issues charts T+36 to T+132)
has the facility to intervene (e.g. input bogus observations) in the process
with the intention of 'nudging' the model analysis towards reality should it
be required.

HTH.
Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message


Already a downed branch in evidence here; doors banging etc - probably
should close the windows a bit

I woke up too warm about 3 is and never noticed the breeze. When I got
up this morning I noticed the lawn was covered with leaves. The high
winds were mentioned in early forecasts on both channels.


--
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