Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX and EGBB going for a PROB30 of +TSRA and TSGR
at EGCC. Having a look at the model fields it seems as if deep convection is
reliant on the ascent induced by the approaching shortwave trough currently
coming into Cornwall. The subsequent ridge preceding it is surpressing
convection here and 11Z Watnall ascent should show a cap of sorts aloft.
26/23Z sonde data is scarce, as is 27/06Z data, so this maybe a reason for
the cautious approach to thunderstorms (?).

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/BW/...71200BW1_g.jpg - 12Z WV image
showing trough to SW

Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX and EGBB going for a PROB30 of +TSRA and
TSGR
at EGCC. Having a look at the model fields it seems as if deep convection
is
reliant on the ascent induced by the approaching shortwave trough
currently
coming into Cornwall. The subsequent ridge preceding it is surpressing
convection here and 11Z Watnall ascent should show a cap of sorts aloft.
26/23Z sonde data is scarce, as is 27/06Z data, so this maybe a reason for
the cautious approach to thunderstorms (?).

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/BW/...71200BW1_g.jpg - 12Z WV image
showing trough to SW

Joe

Indeed Joe, Ascent very much reliant on either convergence or large scale
ascent from the upper trough. Earlier model soundings for West London showed
a CAP at 800mb and another at 400mb but with instability in between, thus
with temperatures allowing the boundary layer to warm and the approach of
the upper trough allowing cooling aloft the cap at 800mb should be eroded
esp later this afternoon across the east. Thus convergence line showers now
forming across Salisbury Plain will become heavier and more widespread with
the more widespread ascent forced by the upper trough approach.

WV imagery shows the PVA max out to the SW.

Paul

It'll take a bit more than a sneeze upward to set it off the 0z ascent is
showing a couple of caps and no CAPE to speak of... coincedentally Estofex
are forecasting "slight risk" for the Midlands... perhaps with the heating
of the day???

Les


"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX


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"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX and EGBB going for a PROB30 of +TSRA and
TSGR
at EGCC.
Joe

Mod burst here at 1409Z, lasting all of a minute but dampening everything.
Back edge of shower now visible with a growing tower of Cu.

Joe
--
Wymeswold, Leicestershire. 79m asl

On Sun, 27 Jun 2004 13:34:23 GMT, "Les Crossan"
wrote:

It'll take a bit more than a sneeze upward to set it off the 0z ascent is
showing a couple of caps and no CAPE to speak of... coincedentally Estofex
are forecasting "slight risk" for the Midlands... perhaps with the heating
of the day???

"Slight" risk has produced a real gully-washer in Solihull, complete
with lightning, and it followed me all the way home to Kenilworth.

Spectacular mammatus on the leading edge. Temp drop on car
thermometer from 21 to 12.

JPG



Les


"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX


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"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX and EGBB going for a PROB30 of +TSRA and
TSGR
at EGCC.
Joe

Mod burst here at 1409Z, lasting all of a minute but dampening everything.
Back edge of shower now visible with a growing tower of Cu.

Joe
--
Wymeswold, Leicestershire. 79m asl


Cloud tops were reaching just about -35C, which fits in pretty nicely to the
expected tops. The -35C line on the 12Z Nottingham Ascent equates to just
above 400mb. Clearly the cap preventing release of plenty of low level cape
was eroded this afternoon as the upper trough advanced and daytime heating
occured. (differential advection) Tops would have probably just overshot
the equlibirium level at just over 400mbs.

Regards
Paul

"PJB" wrote in message
...

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX and EGBB going for a PROB30 of +TSRA and
TSGR
at EGCC.
Joe

Mod burst here at 1409Z, lasting all of a minute but dampening
everything.
Back edge of shower now visible with a growing tower of Cu.

Joe
--
Wymeswold, Leicestershire. 79m asl


Cloud tops were reaching just about -35C, which fits in pretty nicely to
the
expected tops. The -35C line on the 12Z Nottingham Ascent equates to just
above 400mb. Clearly the cap preventing release of plenty of low level
cape
was eroded this afternoon as the upper trough advanced and daytime heating
occured. (differential advection) Tops would have probably just overshot
the equlibirium level at just over 400mbs.

Regards
Paul

The onset of mass convection was clear as the PVA max region traversed E.
Only a mod burst here as all passed to the S and SE. Some spectacular Cu med
were observed and also some Cb. The "midday" ascents are actually launched
at 11Z IIRC. Where did you obtain 03354 from today as nothing from Wyoming
or Infomet ?

ATB, Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"PJB" wrote in message
...

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX and EGBB going for a PROB30 of +TSRA
and
TSGR
at EGCC.
Joe

Mod burst here at 1409Z, lasting all of a minute but dampening
everything.
Back edge of shower now visible with a growing tower of Cu.

Joe
--
Wymeswold, Leicestershire. 79m asl


Cloud tops were reaching just about -35C, which fits in pretty nicely to
the
expected tops. The -35C line on the 12Z Nottingham Ascent equates to
just
above 400mb. Clearly the cap preventing release of plenty of low level
cape
was eroded this afternoon as the upper trough advanced and daytime
heating
occured. (differential advection) Tops would have probably just
overshot
the equlibirium level at just over 400mbs.

Regards
Paul

The onset of mass convection was clear as the PVA max region traversed E.
Only a mod burst here as all passed to the S and SE. Some spectacular Cu
med
were observed and also some Cb. The "midday" ascents are actually launched
at 11Z IIRC. Where did you obtain 03354 from today as nothing from Wyoming
or Infomet ?

ATB, Joe


It is available on the Noaa Arl Page.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/sonde.pl?WMO=03354

ATB Paul

Sorry guys got that one completely wrong, next time i'll ask Michael Fish (:

Les
"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...



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"PJB" wrote in message
...

It is available on the Noaa Arl Page.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/sonde.pl?WMO=03354

ATB Paul


Cheers Paul, bookmarked.

Joe