The miserable people at the Met Office are mild weather ramping again!

Forecasting a positive NAO

http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/seas...nao/index.html

Don't worry about it, I would be more concerned if they forecast a
hard winter :-)

I still recon summer 2004 in the uk is going to be a non-event !

Keith (Southend)

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On Tue, 29 Jun 2004 16:47:50 +0000 (UTC), "WeatherOutlook Fan"
wrote:

The miserable people at the Met Office are mild weather ramping again!

Forecasting a positive NAO

http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/seas...nao/index.html

In message , "Keith
(Southend)" writes
Don't worry about it, I would be more concerned if they forecast a
hard winter :-)

I still recon summer 2004 in the uk is going to be a non-event !

Keith (Southend)

Still a bit on the warm side for me today :-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

WeatherOutlook Fan wrote in message ...
The miserable people at the Met Office are mild weather ramping again!

Forecasting a positive NAO

http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/seas...nao/index.html



Why is it ramping to *scientifically* make a positive NAO forecast ?

Will.
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" Alistair Womble likes to suck his thumb, did you know that ? "
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My esteemed namesake said that this summer was going to be another very good
one...

Erm..



PKH


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
In message , "Keith
(Southend)" writes
Don't worry about it, I would be more concerned if they forecast a
hard winter :-)

I still recon summer 2004 in the uk is going to be a non-event !

Keith (Southend)

Still a bit on the warm side for me today :-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

In article ,
Paul K Hudson writes:
My esteemed namesake said that this summer was going to be another very good
one...

Erm..



But it still could be. It's much too early to say. It's only a third
over.

And though the last two weeks have been cool and unsettled, the first
two weeks of June were warm and dry (assuming that warm and dry equates
to "good").
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)

.... if you look at the diagram carefully, there are some notable
'errors' between observed and predicted - not only in magnitude, but in
sign too. (Have a look at the latter part of the 1950's). As recently as
2000/01, the forecast was for +2.5, the observed was zero.

The legend itself says " the correct sign of the winter NAO is predicted
two times out of three": this leaves 33% incorrect, quite a large block.

What I found much more interesting about the graph (ignore the forecasts
for a minute) was the general decline in observed NAOI from the highs of
the late '80's and early '90's. Even the Hadley forecast is hardly
'highly positive' when compared to this period. Given the errors noted
above, it could turn out to be somewhat negative!

Martin.