I guess we've all been looking the models to see the track of this
weeks low. Yet upto now there has been no evidence of such a feature
forming on the satellite images. It just shows how far we have come in
forecasting so many days ahead, even if detail may go a stray, it's
certainly one worth watching.

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
I guess we've all been looking the models to see the track of this
weeks low. Yet upto now there has been no evidence of such a feature
forming on the satellite images. It just shows how far we have come in
forecasting so many days ahead, even if detail may go a stray, it's
certainly one worth watching.


Not directly Keith no, however the first signs are beginning to show. WV
imagery shows upper trough extension is well underway to the south of
Iceland, with the broad upper trough already in place just west of Portugal.

IR Loops also show high speed Jet cirrus heading south in a jet maxima from
SE Greenland which in turn is feeding into the extending upper trough.

Over the next 30hrs, this sharpening upper trough induces mass ascent on its
forward side and develops a surface low over NE Iberia which in turn tracks
north towards N France. PVA rounding the base of the trough and large scale
warm advection will make for huge amounts of ascent on the forward side of
this upper trough and will lead to some locally very heavy rainfall being
produced. GFS has gridpoint values 65mm in 12hrs nr Southampton ending 06Z
Thurs.

The low deepening on Wednesday as it moves under the diffluent left exit of
the nr 100kt jet rounding the base of the upper trough. ..

Hope that helps
Paul

In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 5 Jul 2004 at 21:38:30, PJB wrote :

The low deepening on Wednesday as it moves under the diffluent left exit of
the nr 100kt jet rounding the base of the upper trough. ..

Hope that helps

If the above means it'll be wet & windy, then yes.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Thanks Paul, I should look at those WV images more often. I must admit I
realy need to get my head around the links with jets PVA's and upper troughs
as there's obviously a lot to be gleaned from this understanding.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

"PJB" wrote in message
...

scuse my ignorance - what does PVA stand for/mean?

Jim.

"keith.r.harris" wrote in message
...
Thanks Paul, I should look at those WV images more often. I must admit I
realy need to get my head around the links with jets PVA's and upper
troughs
as there's obviously a lot to be gleaned from this understanding.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

"PJB" wrote in message
...

"Jim Smith" wrote in message
...
scuse my ignorance - what does PVA stand for/mean?

Jim.

see the FAQ in my sig file ... click on the 'Detailed Index for this
site', then click on 'P', then click on 'PVA region' - follow links from
there for additional information.

HTH

Martin.

--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message . ..
I guess we've all been looking the models to see the track of this
weeks low. Yet upto now there has been no evidence of such a feature
forming on the satellite images. It just shows how far we have come in
forecasting so many days ahead, even if detail may go a stray, it's
certainly one worth watching.

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003


Seems it may affect a larger area of the UK than expected earlier.
With the heavy rain and strong winds from the east or northeast there
could be severe flooding both inland and if it hits at high tide along
coastal areas. It not just the UK at risk what about the Low
countries.


==============================================
Simon Sheaf
Sheffield South Yorkshire