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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Evening WV imagery shows cyclonic development underway with marked dry
intrusion evident on evening WV images. The sharp upper trough and cool air aloft having resulted in severe thunderstorms this afternoon over Spain. Medium cloud generation is now evident on IR imagery and gradual cooling cloud tops indicate development in underway. Intial pulse of PVA heads towards the SW whilst mass warm advection field heads across France and towards the SE. UKMO, GFS, HIRLAM all favour heaviest falls initially in the SW, transferring to some central parts through tomorrow evening as a 2nd pulse of pva overrides the warm advection field, destabilising it and generating some heavy convective rain. Models steer the low towards the English Channel intially as a relatively warm flabby affair, however with a 100knt Jet streak now rounding the base of trough over Portugal it is later tomorrow as the low heads into N France it finds itself under the diffluence of the left exit of this jet and is forecast to deepen. UKMO being the shallowest with this development, French the deepest and GFS somewhere in between. Certainly the potential is there for a vigorous development with Gales on the N Flank. Rainfall Totals were slightly lower on most 12Z output, however French & Hirlam still pushing for 65mm in 12 hrs at some spots in the south. GFS and UKMO prefer the 65mm totals in the SW. Another noteworthy aspect will be the cool temperatures on Thursday and the slow clearance east, with the jet leaving the low slow moving over Western N Sea, it will be Fri evening before the rain clears east, therefore this in itself could cause flooding problems, no doubt some 3 day rainfall figures could exceed 80-90mm in a few places. Regards Paul |
#2
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Thanks for the excellent summary Paul, it's begining to make sence to
me :-) Keith (Southend) ******************************** 'Weather Home & Abroad' http://www.southendweather.net ******************************** COL Station for Southend-on-Sea http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1 ******************************** Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003 On Tue, 6 Jul 2004 20:15:26 -0000, "PJB" wrote: |
#3
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![]() Thanks for the excellent summary Paul, it's begining to make sence to me :-) Or even common "sence" for us Essex boys, Keith. ;-) Dave |
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