Evening WV imagery shows cyclonic development underway with marked dry
intrusion evident on evening WV images. The sharp upper trough and cool air
aloft having resulted in severe thunderstorms this afternoon over Spain.
Medium cloud generation is now evident on IR imagery and gradual cooling
cloud tops indicate development in underway.

Intial pulse of PVA heads towards the SW whilst mass warm advection field
heads across France and towards the SE. UKMO, GFS, HIRLAM all favour
heaviest falls initially in the SW, transferring to some central parts
through tomorrow evening as a 2nd pulse of pva overrides the warm advection
field, destabilising it and generating some heavy convective rain.

Models steer the low towards the English Channel intially as a relatively
warm flabby affair, however with a 100knt Jet streak now rounding the base
of trough over Portugal it is later tomorrow as the low heads into N France
it finds itself under the diffluence of the left exit of this jet and is
forecast to deepen. UKMO being the shallowest with this development, French
the deepest and GFS somewhere in between. Certainly the potential is there
for a vigorous development with Gales on the N Flank.

Rainfall Totals were slightly lower on most 12Z output, however French &
Hirlam still pushing for 65mm in 12 hrs at some spots in the south. GFS and
UKMO prefer the 65mm totals in the SW.

Another noteworthy aspect will be the cool temperatures on Thursday and the
slow clearance east, with the jet leaving the low slow moving over Western N
Sea, it will be Fri evening before the rain clears east, therefore this in
itself could cause flooding problems, no doubt some 3 day rainfall figures
could exceed 80-90mm in a few places.

Regards
Paul

Thanks for the excellent summary Paul, it's begining to make sence to
me :-)

Keith (Southend)

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Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
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On Tue, 6 Jul 2004 20:15:26 -0000, "PJB"
wrote:

Thanks for the excellent summary Paul, it's begining to make sence to me
:-)

Or even common "sence" for us Essex boys, Keith. ;-)

Dave