My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of northerly
winds:
so far this year I have had 16.4% West South west winds followed closely
with 16.2% west winds.
In third place I have had 9.6% northerlies. July's temp anomally from
normal is currently -3.2C : at this rate it will be colder than May and
June!

Rob
Farsley Near Leeds
420 feet AMSL

ROBERT BROOKS wrote:
My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of northerly
winds:
so far this year I have had 16.4% West South west winds followed closely
with 16.2% west winds.
In third place I have had 9.6% northerlies. July's temp anomally from
normal is currently -3.2C : at this rate it will be colder than May and
June!

Rob
Farsley Near Leeds
420 feet AMSL



This is it then.

The cooling they said might come has begun. The conveyor has been cut.

We'll be able to drive our cars across the North Sea to Denmark by January.

--
Chris
A decidedly chilly Norfolk.

"Succorso" wrote in message
...
ROBERT BROOKS wrote:
My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of
northerly
winds:
This is it then.

The cooling they said might come has begun. The conveyor has been cut.

We'll be able to drive our cars across the North Sea to Denmark by
January.


You only have to go back to 1988 to find a similarly disappointing July:
not a long time in climatological terms, but admittedly long enough for
younger readers of this ng. To quote from the 'Weather Log' for that
month:

"There was a complete absence of anticyclones over Britain during the
month and many parts of the country had measurable rain on at least 23
days .... mean temperatures ... were below normal almost everywhere ...
In many parts of the Midlands and southern England, mean maxima were
2.0degC below average. Rainfall totals were widely above 200% of normal.
In Scotland, it was the wettest July since at least 1869".

The mean 500 hPa pattern showed a strong (westerly) flow between
latitudes 44 north and 53 north, with a 'mean' 500 hPa low between
Scotland and Iceland. Thickness anomaly (500-1000hPa; indicative of the
temperature in the lower half of the troposphere) was -2degC over SW
Ireland and below -1degC almost everywhere else over BI.

The CET value was 14.7degC, which represented an anomaly (c.f 1961-1990
mean) of -1.4.

I remember this well, as it was my last year at London WC, on the radio
roster, and like this year, many sporting events were affected by the
rain etc. e.g. Wimbledon, the Open Golf (at Lytham), etc. The media
frenzy following was quite intense (I've still got a VCR somewhere of
one of my interviews with ITN).

August was 'indifferent': not as cold or wet, but the mean upper flow
was still a long way south.

Winter 1988/89 for us (in the SE) was 'exceptionally mild, dry and
sunny'

July 1989 was mostly anticyclonic: warm, dry and sunny (at least for
much of E&W).

I think you'll still need a ferry to cross the North Sea ;-)

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

I was thinking only this morning that this is shaping up to be the worst
July since 1988 (1988 being marginally worse than 1998) with a particularly
nasty low (for the time of year) during the first weekend of that month.
I remember May and most of June 88 being mostly fine and pretty dry; by the
time the weather broke towards the end of June, the grass was looking pretty
brown all round. When the weather broke, it stayed broke for the summer.
Good parallel with this year. Whats the stats for those two months? (to back
up my recollections :-) )

IIRC what followed after that summer was a long spell with below avarage
rainfall which lasted into 1992?

Jim.


"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

"Succorso" wrote in message
...
ROBERT BROOKS wrote:
My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of
northerly
winds:
This is it then.

The cooling they said might come has begun. The conveyor has been cut.

We'll be able to drive our cars across the North Sea to Denmark by
January.


You only have to go back to 1988 to find a similarly disappointing July:
not a long time in climatological terms, but admittedly long enough for
younger readers of this ng. To quote from the 'Weather Log' for that
month:

"There was a complete absence of anticyclones over Britain during the
month and many parts of the country had measurable rain on at least 23
days .... mean temperatures ... were below normal almost everywhere ...
In many parts of the Midlands and southern England, mean maxima were
2.0degC below average. Rainfall totals were widely above 200% of normal.
In Scotland, it was the wettest July since at least 1869".

The mean 500 hPa pattern showed a strong (westerly) flow between
latitudes 44 north and 53 north, with a 'mean' 500 hPa low between
Scotland and Iceland. Thickness anomaly (500-1000hPa; indicative of the
temperature in the lower half of the troposphere) was -2degC over SW
Ireland and below -1degC almost everywhere else over BI.

The CET value was 14.7degC, which represented an anomaly (c.f 1961-1990
mean) of -1.4.

I remember this well, as it was my last year at London WC, on the radio
roster, and like this year, many sporting events were affected by the
rain etc. e.g. Wimbledon, the Open Golf (at Lytham), etc. The media
frenzy following was quite intense (I've still got a VCR somewhere of
one of my interviews with ITN).

August was 'indifferent': not as cold or wet, but the mean upper flow
was still a long way south.

Winter 1988/89 for us (in the SE) was 'exceptionally mild, dry and
sunny'

July 1989 was mostly anticyclonic: warm, dry and sunny (at least for
much of E&W).

I think you'll still need a ferry to cross the North Sea ;-)

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

And what a nice winter we had after that ;(

Incidentally July 2000 was no good for me with a mean maxima of just 20.3
here. At the moment I'm running (very) marginally higher this July.

Bedford
25-30mASL

"Jim Smith" wrote in message
...
I was thinking only this morning that this is shaping up to be the worst
July since 1988 (1988 being marginally worse than 1998) with a
particularly
nasty low (for the time of year) during the first weekend of that month.
I remember May and most of June 88 being mostly fine and pretty dry; by
the
time the weather broke towards the end of June, the grass was looking
pretty
brown all round. When the weather broke, it stayed broke for the summer.
Good parallel with this year. Whats the stats for those two months? (to
back
up my recollections :-) )

IIRC what followed after that summer was a long spell with below avarage
rainfall which lasted into 1992?

Jim.


"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

"Succorso" wrote in message
...
ROBERT BROOKS wrote:
My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of
northerly
winds:
This is it then.

The cooling they said might come has begun. The conveyor has been cut.

We'll be able to drive our cars across the North Sea to Denmark by
January.


You only have to go back to 1988 to find a similarly disappointing July:
not a long time in climatological terms, but admittedly long enough for
younger readers of this ng. To quote from the 'Weather Log' for that
month:

"There was a complete absence of anticyclones over Britain during the
month and many parts of the country had measurable rain on at least 23
days .... mean temperatures ... were below normal almost everywhere ...
In many parts of the Midlands and southern England, mean maxima were
2.0degC below average. Rainfall totals were widely above 200% of normal.
In Scotland, it was the wettest July since at least 1869".

The mean 500 hPa pattern showed a strong (westerly) flow between
latitudes 44 north and 53 north, with a 'mean' 500 hPa low between
Scotland and Iceland. Thickness anomaly (500-1000hPa; indicative of the
temperature in the lower half of the troposphere) was -2degC over SW
Ireland and below -1degC almost everywhere else over BI.

The CET value was 14.7degC, which represented an anomaly (c.f 1961-1990
mean) of -1.4.

I remember this well, as it was my last year at London WC, on the radio
roster, and like this year, many sporting events were affected by the
rain etc. e.g. Wimbledon, the Open Golf (at Lytham), etc. The media
frenzy following was quite intense (I've still got a VCR somewhere of
one of my interviews with ITN).

August was 'indifferent': not as cold or wet, but the mean upper flow
was still a long way south.

Winter 1988/89 for us (in the SE) was 'exceptionally mild, dry and
sunny'

July 1989 was mostly anticyclonic: warm, dry and sunny (at least for
much of E&W).

I think you'll still need a ferry to cross the North Sea ;-)

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

In message , Succorso
writes
The cooling they said might come has begun. The conveyor has been cut.

We'll be able to drive our cars across the North Sea to Denmark by January.

I really think you should be considering something less polluting, like
skis or dog sled...
--
Anita Evans
North Cumbria
(anita[at]ra.evans.clara.co.uk to reply by e-mail)

In message , ROBERT BROOKS
writes
My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of northerly
winds:
so far this year I have had 16.4% West South west winds followed closely
with 16.2% west winds.
In third place I have had 9.6% northerlies. July's temp anomally from
normal is currently -3.2C : at this rate it will be colder than May and
June!


Perhaps totally unrelated but I have speculated about this in recent
years.

On 27th May 2001 I posted the following on this newsgroup:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm no expert in climate change but I can imagine that this set-up could
become a bit more dominant in a global warming scenario. With the land
masses probably heating up more in summer than the ocean surfaces there
could be more of a heat low development over Eurasia. This could readily
result in very persistent NW'lies in NW Europe, not too dissimilar to
the "40-day shamal" in the Arabian Gulf. If this did happen it would
mean that global warming might result in the UK getting cooler summers.
I emphasise that that is speculation, not a prediction
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Then, on 31st March 2002 I posted the following:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I have no problem accepting the argument that an increase in greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the global mean
temperature at the bottom of the atmosphere i.e. at the earth's surface.
Where I start to have difficulty is with the idea that this can be taken
a huge step further, to predict what will be the effects of this global
warming on the climate in one very small part of the earth's surface.

In order to predict what will be the change to our climate it is
necessary to predict the changes in the monthly mean surface pressure
patterns across Europe and the North Atlantic and in the monthly
standard deviation. Our climate is so very sensitive to these changes.

For example, if mean surface temperatures over mainland Europe increased
significantly in the summer months might that lead to the formation of a
surface heat low. If it did, we could end up with an increase in the
frequency of relatively cool NW winds in summer. I'm not saying that
will happen but it is the sort of question that needs to be addressed.

I am not an expert in the global warming issue but I feel that any
predictions of changes to our climate should be supported by an
explanation of how these changes are expected to come about.

Interesting times ahead, though. I feel pretty confident of that.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Is this current spell of cool weather just part of the random
fluctuation of weather we have always experienced or is it a result of
global warming? Only time will tell.

From a personal point of view, I will be very happy if summer 2004 is
indicative of the summers to come over the next 10-20 years. This year
is much more pleasant (for me) than the hot weather that we have often
experienced since 1990:-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

I can find 2 cooler July's than 1988 at Southend-on-Sea, and we don't
have to go back very far at all. (Currently running at 19.7°c)

1980 19.8°c (Mean Max) (-2.5°c)
2000 19.9°c (Mean Max) (-2.4°c)
then...
1988 20.1°c (Mean Max) (-2.2°c)
1978 20.4°c (Mean Max) (-1.9°c)

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003

On Sun, 11 Jul 2004 10:36:03 GMT, Norman Lynagh
wrote:

In message , ROBERT BROOKS
writes
My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of northerly
winds:
so far this year I have had 16.4% West South west winds followed closely
with 16.2% west winds.
In third place I have had 9.6% northerlies. July's temp anomally from
normal is currently -3.2C : at this rate it will be colder than May and
June!


Perhaps totally unrelated but I have speculated about this in recent
years.

On 27th May 2001 I posted the following on this newsgroup:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm no expert in climate change but I can imagine that this set-up could
become a bit more dominant in a global warming scenario. With the land
masses probably heating up more in summer than the ocean surfaces there
could be more of a heat low development over Eurasia. This could readily
result in very persistent NW'lies in NW Europe, not too dissimilar to
the "40-day shamal" in the Arabian Gulf. If this did happen it would
mean that global warming might result in the UK getting cooler summers.
I emphasise that that is speculation, not a prediction
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Then, on 31st March 2002 I posted the following:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I have no problem accepting the argument that an increase in greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the global mean
temperature at the bottom of the atmosphere i.e. at the earth's surface.
Where I start to have difficulty is with the idea that this can be taken
a huge step further, to predict what will be the effects of this global
warming on the climate in one very small part of the earth's surface.

In order to predict what will be the change to our climate it is
necessary to predict the changes in the monthly mean surface pressure
patterns across Europe and the North Atlantic and in the monthly
standard deviation. Our climate is so very sensitive to these changes.

For example, if mean surface temperatures over mainland Europe increased
significantly in the summer months might that lead to the formation of a
surface heat low. If it did, we could end up with an increase in the
frequency of relatively cool NW winds in summer. I'm not saying that
will happen but it is the sort of question that needs to be addressed.

I am not an expert in the global warming issue but I feel that any
predictions of changes to our climate should be supported by an
explanation of how these changes are expected to come about.

Interesting times ahead, though. I feel pretty confident of that.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Is this current spell of cool weather just part of the random
fluctuation of weather we have always experienced or is it a result of
global warming? Only time will tell.

From a personal point of view, I will be very happy if summer 2004 is
indicative of the summers to come over the next 10-20 years. This year
is much more pleasant (for me) than the hot weather that we have often
experienced since 1990:-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)

My current mean here at Ferryhill, Co. Durham is 13.0°C. The only Julys
colder than that on the Durham Record are :

1860 and 1919 12.9°C
1907 12.8°C
1888 12.65°C (with 210mm or rain!)
1922 and 1965 12.55°C

so if this continues it will be quite a notebly poor month.
--
Dave O'Hara
NE Forum
http://www.neforum2.co.uk/forum


"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
news
I can find 2 cooler July's than 1988 at Southend-on-Sea, and we don't
have to go back very far at all. (Currently running at 19.7°c)

1980 19.8°c (Mean Max) (-2.5°c)
2000 19.9°c (Mean Max) (-2.4°c)
then...
1988 20.1°c (Mean Max) (-2.2°c)
1978 20.4°c (Mean Max) (-1.9°c)

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003

On Sun, 11 Jul 2004 10:36:03 GMT, Norman Lynagh
wrote:

In message , ROBERT BROOKS
writes
My weather display this year is showing quite a high frequency of
northerly
winds:
so far this year I have had 16.4% West South west winds followed closely
with 16.2% west winds.
In third place I have had 9.6% northerlies. July's temp anomally from
normal is currently -3.2C : at this rate it will be colder than May and
June!


Perhaps totally unrelated but I have speculated about this in recent
years.

On 27th May 2001 I posted the following on this newsgroup:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm no expert in climate change but I can imagine that this set-up could
become a bit more dominant in a global warming scenario. With the land
masses probably heating up more in summer than the ocean surfaces there
could be more of a heat low development over Eurasia. This could readily
result in very persistent NW'lies in NW Europe, not too dissimilar to
the "40-day shamal" in the Arabian Gulf. If this did happen it would
mean that global warming might result in the UK getting cooler summers.
I emphasise that that is speculation, not a prediction
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Then, on 31st March 2002 I posted the following:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I have no problem accepting the argument that an increase in greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the global mean
temperature at the bottom of the atmosphere i.e. at the earth's surface.
Where I start to have difficulty is with the idea that this can be taken
a huge step further, to predict what will be the effects of this global
warming on the climate in one very small part of the earth's surface.

In order to predict what will be the change to our climate it is
necessary to predict the changes in the monthly mean surface pressure
patterns across Europe and the North Atlantic and in the monthly
standard deviation. Our climate is so very sensitive to these changes.

For example, if mean surface temperatures over mainland Europe increased
significantly in the summer months might that lead to the formation of a
surface heat low. If it did, we could end up with an increase in the
frequency of relatively cool NW winds in summer. I'm not saying that
will happen but it is the sort of question that needs to be addressed.

I am not an expert in the global warming issue but I feel that any
predictions of changes to our climate should be supported by an
explanation of how these changes are expected to come about.

Interesting times ahead, though. I feel pretty confident of that.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Is this current spell of cool weather just part of the random
fluctuation of weather we have always experienced or is it a result of
global warming? Only time will tell.

From a personal point of view, I will be very happy if summer 2004 is
indicative of the summers to come over the next 10-20 years. This year
is much more pleasant (for me) than the hot weather that we have often
experienced since 1990:-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)

On Sun, 11 Jul 2004 10:36:03 GMT, Norman Lynagh
wrote:

From a personal point of view, I will be very happy if summer 2004 is
indicative of the summers to come over the next 10-20 years. This year
is much more pleasant (for me) than the hot weather that we have often
experienced since 1990:-)

Yes, for me too, it's been much more pleasant than recent summers.
Lower electricity bills too, with no need to run fans or turn on the
air conditioning this summer. No need for heating either; the heat
from my computers takes care of that! The best of both worlds.

--
Dave
Fareham